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China's Large and Rising Net Foreign Asset position

China & World Economy 2009年第5期17卷 1-21页

作者： Guonan Ma Haiwen Zhou Bank of international Settlement Basel Switzerland Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Beijing China

China＇s emergence as a major player in world trade is well known, but its growing role in global finance might have been underappreciated. China is the second largest creditor in the world today, with a net creditorposition of 30 percent of GDP in 2008. We test the importance of the growth differential, demographics, government debt, financial depth and the exchange rate in shaping China＇s net foreign asset position. Our empirical results highlight the sharp fall in the young-age dependence as one key driver behind China ＇s puzzlingly large net lender position and also confirm the neoclassical prediction that faster growth attracts more capital inflows. Looking ahead, our findings suggest that China will unlikely turn into a meaningful net debtor nation over the next two decades.

关键词： current account balance external balance sheet international investment position

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Measuring Net Foreign Assets:The Case of China

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China & World Economy 2010年第5期18卷 90-104页

作者： Chao Zhu Capital University of Economics and Business Beijing China

This paper discusses two methods of measuring net foreign assets（NFA）： directly using the financial account and indirectly using the current account. The former method is found to be more accurate than the latter method. The paper also includes a detailed discussion of the valuation methodology. The results show that China＇s NFA are much lower than the cumulative current account surplus or the cumulative foreign exchange reserves. This leads to an underestimation of growth in foreign direct investment and an overestimation of the capacity of foreign exchange reserves to cope with possible withdrawals. Therefore, the Chinese Government should pay more attention to valuation issues to obtain more accurate measurement of NFA. Meanwhile, the Chinese monetary authority should relax its control on the foreign exchange settlement system, allow the private sector to hold a certain amount of foreign exchange, and encourage foreign assets to be denominated in RMB to solve structural problems, including entity and currency mismatch

关键词： international investment position measurement methodology net foreign

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China as a Net Creditor： An Indication of Strength or Weaknesses？

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China & World Economy 2007年第6期15卷 22-36页

作者： Xin Wang Researcher Overseas Resource Center for Public Administration Tsinghua University Beijing China.

China＇s international investment position is characterized by large net foreign assets, a dominance of low-return foreign exchange reserves and costly foreign direct investment in foreign assets and foreign liabilities. In addition, China＇s foreign investment positions are facing potentially large exchange risks. These features reflect entrenched institutional and structural problems in China, including underdeveloped capital markets, biased resource allocation and a defective social security system. China＇s net creditor status might actually be an indication of weakness rather than strength. To improve its international investment position, China must speed up economic reforms and allow the market to play a fundamental role in resource allocation.

关键词： China international investment position net creditor

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In search of currency internationalisation: a perspective from financial openness

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Economic and Political Studies 2020年第3期8卷 312-330页

作者： Dong Lu Erzhuo Liu School of Finance Renmin University of ChinaBeijingChina

This paper examines the role of financial openness for currency *** provide a theoretical synthesis on the economic and financial channels that financial openness might affect currency *** experiences from the UK,the US,Japan and Germany show the essential role played by financial policies to promote one currency’s international *** collect recent data of a panel of countries to provide an in-depth empirical analysis on how financial openness would affect a currency’s acceptance in international official *** find strong evidence that portfolio positions generally have a larger impact on the currency’s share in international reserves than ***,portfolio positions in the liability side,especially foreign investments in domestic debt securities,have a statistically significant and economically important effect on currency *** results have implications for China,highlighting the specific effects of financial policies on RMB internationalisation.

关键词： Financial openness currency internationalisation international reserves international investment position

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债务—美元国际货币霸权体系的支柱及优势

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政治经济学评论 2024年第2期

作者：李宝伟孙尧张云胡秋阳

本文基于马克思政治经济学的货币金融思想和后凯恩斯货币经济学存量—流量一致模型（SFC）分析方法，考察债务—美元国际货币体系的本质，梳理了支撑其霸权地位的六个主要支柱，阐述了影响其主要支柱变化的因素与机制；考察了其霸权性... 详细信息

本文基于马克思政治经济学的货币金融思想和后凯恩斯货币经济学存量—流量一致模型（SFC）分析方法，考察债务—美元国际货币体系的本质，梳理了支撑其霸权地位的六个主要支柱，阐述了影响其主要支柱变化的因素与机制；考察了其霸权性质的具体表现，即美国国债国际实际利息支付下降与美国国际投资头寸中资产端相对负债端的超额收益率现象。进一步测算出美国从2006年一季度至2022年四季度，超额收益率在国际收支总头寸平均值为0.397%，直接投资头寸平均值为0.999%。当前，美国实体经济弱化、美元和美国国债国际使用度下降等关键因素的变化使得债务—美元体系的国际货币霸权地位发生动摇。未来我国应该持续推进人民币国际化，提升我国在国际货币和金融体系中的话语权。

关键词：美元货币金融优势国际投资头寸存流量一致模型 the financial advantages of US dollar international investment position stock-flow consistent model

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