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Analysis of the Relation between interest rate policy and the Stock Market in China

Systems Science and Systems Engineering 1999年第4期9卷 89-107页

作者： WANG Jun\|bo,\ DENG Shu\|hui Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information Systems Institute of System Science, Academia Sinica, Beijing 100080, China

Based on the modern monetary theory, this paper analyze the relation between interest rate policy and Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange by using event study and co\|integration model method. We point out that the interest rate policy have some abnormal effects on the stock market in short time and have negative effects on the stock market in long run. The influence of the interest rate is different on Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

关键词： interest rate policy event study co\|integration and error\|correction model stock market

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Central Bank interest rate policy as a Pro-Crisis Instrument of Macroeconomic Regulation

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Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing 2020年第10期16卷 431-435页

作者： Burenin Aleksey Moscow State Institute of International Relations(University) MoscowRussia

Why does interest rate policy not work in the economy as economic theory suggests?To understand why,you need to look at the economy from a higher level of *** this approach,only two states of the economy can be *** first is a“normal”state;the second is crisis and ***“normal”state is the period after the recession and before the next *** this period,the basic laws of the market economy *** a crisis,the relationship between the level of interest rates and borrowing by households and businesses is *** explains the ineffectiveness of the policy of lowering interest *** states of the economy have their own laws,and you cannot extrapolate tools that are successful under“normal”market conditions linearly to the crisis state of the *** does the interest rate policy during the period of the“normal”state of the economy not adjust its development in order to prevent the onset of the crisis?Firstly,the conditions for the emergence of crisis phenomena are created by the interest rate policy at the very beginning of the business cycle,when central banks set and maintain low interest rates for a relatively long ***,by the end of the business cycle,the credit burden in economy reaches its maximum,so there is no further possibility of expanding effective demand by decreasing interest ***,interest rate policy is an instrument for rough adjustment of the economy,indiscriminately affecting all participants in economic *** an attempt to stimulate the economy,the central bank creates the conditions for increasing its ***,at the end of the business cycle,the interest rate policy does not actually support the real economy,but only the stock ***,the Fed’s policy has formed a pro-crisis conditioned reflex among market ***,central banks should leave the determination of the level of interest rates to the free market.

关键词： interest rate policy central bank macroeconomic regulation

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