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interannual variation and Statistical Prediction of Summer Dry and Hot Days in South China from 1970 to 2018

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2023年第4期29卷 431-447页

作者：薛鑫吴燕星陈镇刘润赵志军 Institute for Environmental and Climate Research Jinan UniversityGuangzhou 511443 China Guangdong-Hongkong-Macao Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality Guangzhou 511443 China School of Information Science and Technology Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438 China

The frequent occurrence of dry and hot(DH)days in South China in summer has a negative impact on social development and human *** study explored the variation characteristics of DH days and the possible reasons for this knotty *** findings revealed a notable increase in the number of DH days across most stations,indicating a significant upward ***,DH events were observed to occur *** number of DH days increased during 1970-1990,decreased from 1991 to 1997,and stayed stable after *** key climate factors affecting the interannual variability of the number of DH days were the Indian Ocean Basin warming(IOBW)in spring and the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM).Compared with the negative phase of IOBW,in the positive phase of IOBW,500 hPa and 850 hPa geopotential height enhanced,the West Pacific subtropical high strengthened and extended abnormally to the west,more solar radiation reached the surface,surface outgoing longwave radiation increased,and there was an anomalous anticyclone in eastern South *** atmospheric circulation characteristics of the positive and negative phases of ESAM were opposite to those of IOBW,and the abnormal circulation of the positive(negative)phases of ESAM was unfavorable(favorable)for the increase in the number of DH days.A long-term prediction model for the number of summer DH days was established using multiple linear regression,incorporating the key climate *** correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted number of DH days was 0.65,and the root-mean-square error was *** addition,independent forecasts for 2019 showed a deviation of just 1 *** results of the independent recovery test confirmed the stability of the model,providing evidence that climatic factors did have an impact on DH days in South China.

关键词： dry and hot days interannual variation climate factors statistical prediction

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Interdecadal Change in the interannual variation of the Western Edge of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High During Early Summer and the Influence of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2022年第1期28卷 57-70页

作者： ZHAN Hong-yu CHEN Rui-dan LAN Ming Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies/School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)ZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China School of Marine Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China

This study reveals that the interannual variability of the western edge of the western North Pacific(WNP)subtropical high(WNPSH)in early summer experienced an interdecadal decrease around ***,the zonal movement of the WNPSH and the zonal extension of the high-pressure anomaly over the WNP(WNPHA)in abnormal years possess smaller ranges after *** different influences of the tropical SSTAs are important for this interdecadal change,which exhibit slow El Nino decaying pattern before 1990 while rapid transformation from El Nino to La Nina after *** early summer tropical SSTAs and the relevant atmospheric circulation anomalies present obvious interdecadal *** 1990,the warm SSTAs over the northern Indian Ocean and southern South China Sea favor the WNPHA through eastward-propagating Kelvin wave and meridional-vertical circulation,***,the warm SSTA over the tropical central Pacific induces anomalous ascent to its northwest through the Gill response,which could strengthen the anomalous descent over the WNP through meridional-vertical circulation and further favor the eastward extension of the WNPHA to central *** 1990,the warm SSTAs over the Maritime Continent and northern Indian Ocean cause the WNPHA through meridional-vertical and zonal-vertical circulation,***,the anomalous warm SSTs and ascent and the resultant anomalous descent over the WNP are located more westward and southward after 1990 than before ***,the WNPHA features narrower zonal range and less eastward extension after 1990,corresponding to the interdecadal decease in the interannual variability of the western edge of the *** the other hand,the dominant oscillation period of ENSO experienced an interdecadal reduction around 1990,contributing to the change of the El Nino SSTA associated with the anomalous WNPSH from slow decaying type to rapid transformation type.

关键词： western North Pacific subtropical high interdecadal change interannual variation tropical sea surface temperature ENSO

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interannual variation of Multiple Tropical Cyclone Events in the Western North Pacific

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2012年第6期29卷 1279-1291页

作者：高建芸李天明 Fujian Climate Center China Meteorological Administration International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology University of Hawaii

The interannual variability of occurrence of multiple tropical cyclone （MTC） events during June-October in the western North Pacific （WNP） was examined for the period 1979-2006. The number of the MTC events ranged from 2 to 9 per year, exhibiting a remarkable year-to-year variation. Seven active and seven inactive MTC years were identified. Compared to the inactive years, tropical cyclone genesis locations extended farther to the east and in the meridional direction during the active MTC years. A composite analysis shows that inactive MTC years were often associated with the E1 Nifio decaying phase, as warm SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern-central Pacific in the preceding winter transitioned into cold sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies in the concurrent summer. Associated with the SST evolution were suppressed low-level cyclonic vorticity and weakened convection in the WNP monsoon region. In addition to the mean flow difference~ significant differences between active and inactive MTC years were also found in the strength of the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation （ISO）. Compared with inactive MTC years, ISO activity was much stronger along the equator and in the WNP region during active MTC years. Both westwardand northward-propagating ISO spectrums strengthened during active MTC years compared to inactive years. The combined mean state and ISO activity changes may set up a favorable environment for the generation of MTC events.

关键词： multiple tropical cyclone events interannual variation

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interannual variation of nutrients along a transect across the Kuroshio and shelf area in the East China Sea over 40 years

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Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2018年第1期36卷 62-76页

作者：胡莹英郭新宇赵亮 Center for Marine Environmental Studies Ehime University Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology Ministry of Education Ocean University of China College of Environmental Science and Engineering Ocean University of China College of Marine and Environmental Sciences Tianjin University of Science and Technology

Long-term datasets of water temperature,salinity,dissolved oxygen,phosphate and nitrate from 1973 to 2013 were used to study interannual variations of these parameters along a transect(section PN)across the Kuroshio and shelf area in the East China *** temperature and salinity at depths of 0–200 m showed a low-high-low-high pattern over the 40-year *** temperature and salinity at 500 m were relatively high from 1985 to 1990 and decreased continuously *** at 800 m was lowest around 1993 and increased *** were highest between 1980 and *** 1985,nutrients at 500 m were *** range of variation in nutrients was large before 1985 and the magnitude increased with greater *** oxygen utilization at 500 m depth was decreasing before 1990 and started to increase after *** changes after 1990 at 500 m depth may be due to the upward trend of the upper boundary of Kuroshio intermediate *** variation of water temperature,salinity,dissolved oxygen,phosphate and nitrate along section PN has a significant correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index.

关键词： Kuroshio East China Sea interannual variation nutrient phosphate nitrate

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interannual variation OF INDEX OF EAST ASIAN LAND-SEA THERMAL DIFFERENCE AND ITS RELATION TO MONSOON CIRCULATION AND RAINFALL OVER CHINA

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2001年第1期15卷 71-85页

作者：孙秀荣陈隆勋何金海 Shanghai Typhoon Institute Shanghai 200030 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 Department of Atmospheric Sciences.Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Nanjing 210044

This paper proposes an index of land-sea thermal difference(ILSTD)that describes its zonal and meridional strength responsible for East Asian monsoon circulation to study its relation to the East Asian monsoon circulation and the summer rainfall over China on an interannual *** are as follows:(1)ILSTD can be used to measure the strength of East Asian summer monsoon in such a way that the strong(weak)ILSTD years are associated with strong(weak)summer monsoon circulation.(2)The index also reflects well summer rainfall anomaly over the eastern part of China. In the strong index years,rain belt is mainly located over the northern China,and serious drought emerges in the Jianghuai valleys and mid-lower reaches of the Changjiang River,along with increase of rainfall in North and South China,but in the weak years it is contrary.(3)Besides,the index has obvious QBO and quasi 4-year oscillations,but the periods and amplitudes have significant changes on an interdecadal basis.

关键词： index of land-sea thermal difference(ILSTD) interannual variation East Asian summer monsoon summer rainfall over China

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Numerical Simulation of the Impact of Vegetation Index on the interannual variation of Summer Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2005年第6期22卷 865-876页

作者：李伟平薛永康 Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 Department of Geography and Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of California at Los Angeles California USA

Two sets of numerical experiments using the coupled National Center for Environmental Prediction General Circulation Model （NCEP/GCM T42L18） and the Simplified Simple Biosphere land surface scheme （SSiB） were carried out to investigate the climate impacts of fractional vegetation cover （FVC） and leaf area index （LAI） on East Asia summer precipitation, especially in the Yellow River Basin （YRB）. One set employed prescribed FVC and LAI which have no interannual variations based on the climatology of vegetation distribution; the other with FVC and LAI derived from satellite observations of the International Satellite Land Surface Climate Project （ISLSCP） for 1987 and 1988. The simulations of the two experiments were compared to study the influence of FVC, LAI on summer precipitation interannual variation in the YRB. Compared with observations and the NCEP reanalysis data, the experiment that included both the effects of satellite-derived vegetation indexes and sea surface temperature （SST） produced better seasonal and interannual precipitation variations than the experiment with SST but no interannual variations in FVC and LAI, indicating that better representations of the vegetation index and its interannual variation may be important for climate prediction. The difference between 1987 and 1988 indicated that with the increase of FVC and LAI, especially around the YRB, surface albedo decreased, net surface radiation increased, and consequently local evaporation and precipitation intensified. Further more, surface sensible heat flux, surface temperature and its diurnal variation decreased around the YRB in response to more vegetation. The decrease of surface-emitting longwave radiation due to the cooler surface outweighed the decrease of surface solar radiation income with more cloud coverage, thus maintaining the positive anomaly of net surface radiation. Further study indicated that moisture flux variations associated with changes in the general circulation also cont

关键词： numerical simulation vegetation index interannual variation summer precipitation Yellow River basiu

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Influence of Monsoon over the Warm Pool on interannual variation on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2008年第2期25卷 319-328页

作者：陈光华黄荣辉 Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The relationship between the interannual variation in tropical cyclone （TC） activity over the western North Pacific （WNP） and the thermal state over the warm pool （WP） is examined in this paper. The results show that the subsurface temperature in the WP is well correlated with TC geographical distribution and track type. Their relation is linked by the East Asian monsoon trough. During the warm years, the westward-retreating monsoon trough creates convergence and vorticity fields that are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the northwest of the WNP, whereas more TCs concentrating in the southeast result from eastward penetration of the monsoon trough during the cold years. The steering flows at 500 hPa lead to a westward displacement track in the warm years and recurving prevailing track in the cold years. The two types of distinct processes in the monsoon environment triggering tropical cyclogenesis are hypothesized by composites centered for TC genesis location corresponding to two kinds of thermal states of the WP. During the warm years, low-frequency intraseasonal oscillation is active in the west of the WNP such that eastward-propagating westerlies cluster TC genesis in that region. In contrast, during the cold years, the increased cyclogenesis in the southeast of the WNP is mainly associated with tropical depression type disturbances transiting from equatorially trapped mixed Rossby gravity waves. Both of the processes may be fundamental mechanisms for the inherent interannual variation in TC activity over the WNP.

关键词： monsoon warm pool interannual variation tropical cyclone

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Circulation anomalies associated with interannual variation of early- and late-summer precipitation in Northeast China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2011年第7期54卷 1095-1104页

作者： SHEN BaiZhu LIN ZhongDa LU RiYu LIAN Yi Institute of Meteorological Science of Jilin Province Changchun 130062 China Laboratory of Research for Mid-High Latitude Circulation System and East Asian Monsoon Changchun 130062 China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Summer rainfall is vital for crops in Northeast China. In this study, we investigated large-scale circulation anomalies related to monthly summer rainfall in Northeast China using European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ERA-40 reanalysis data and monthly rainfall data from 79 stations in Northeast China. The results show that the interannual variation in rainfall over Northeast China is mainly dominated by a cold vortex in early summer (May-June) and by the East Asian summer monsoon in late summer (July-August). In early summer, corresponding to increased rainfall in Northeast China, an anomalous cyclonic anomaly tilted westward with height appears to the northwest and cold vortices occur frequently. In late summer, the rainfall anomaly is mainly controlled by a northward shift of the local East Asian jet stream in the upper troposphere and the northwest extension of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in the lower troposphere. The enhanced southwesterly anomaly in the west of the WPSH transports more moisture into Northeast China and results in more rainfall. In addition, compared with that in July, the rainfall in Northeast China in August is also influenced by a mid- and high-latitude blocking high over Northeast Asia.

关键词： summer rainfall Northeast China interannual variation cold vortex western Pacific subtropical high East Asian jetstream

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A primary study of the correlation between the net air-sea heat flux and the interannual variation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone track and intensity

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2011年第6期30卷 27-35页

作者： WU Liang WEN Zhiping HUANG Ronghui Center for Monsoon and Environment Research/Department of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou 510275 China Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

A singular value decomposition （SVD） analysis is carried out to reveal the relationship between the interannual variation of track and intensity of the western North Pacific tropical cyclones （WNPTCs） in the tropical cyclone （TC） active season （July–November） and the global net air-sea heat flux （Q net ） in the preceding season （April–June）. For this purpose, a tropical cyclone track and intensity function （TIF） is defined by a combination of accumulated cyclone energy （ACE） index and a cyclone track density function. The SVD analysis reveals that the first mode is responsible for the positive correlation between the upward heat flux in the tropical central Pacific and the increased activity of western North Pacific （WNP） TIF, the second mode for the positive correlation between the upward heat flux in the North Indian Ocean and the northeastward track shift of WNPTCs and the third mode for the negative correlation between the upward heat flux in mid-latitude central Pacific and the northwest displacement of the WNP TC-active center. This suggests that Q net anomalies in some key regions have a substantial remote impact on the WNP TC activity.

关键词： tropical cyclone western North Pacific the net air-sea heat flux (Q net ) interannual variation

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Large-scale Circulation Anomalies Associated with interannual variation in Monthly Rainfall over South China from May to August

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第2期31卷 273-282页

作者： SU Qin LU Riyu LI Chaofan State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

interannual variation in summer rainfall over South China （SC） was investigated on the monthly *** was found that monthly rainfall from May to August exhibits different features of variation,and the amounts are basically independent of each *** is a significant negative correlation,however,between May and July SC rainfall,which is partially related to the developing phases of ENSO *** was also found that stronger （weaker） lower-tropospheric winds over SC and the upstream parts are responsible for more （less） SC rainfall in every month from May to *** this monthly consistent enhancement of horizontal winds,the wind anomalies exhibit distinct differences between May-June and July-August,due to the remarkable change in climatological winds between these two *** SC rainfall is associated with a lower-tropospheric anticyclonic anomaly over the SCS and the Philippine Sea in May and June,but with a cyclonic anomaly centered over SC in July and August.

关键词： subseasonal variation interannual variation South China rainfall general circulation anomalies

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