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A Physics-informed Deep-learning intensity prediction Scheme for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1391-1402页

作者： Yitian ZHOU Ruifen ZHAN Yuqing WANG Peiyan CHEN Zhemin TAN Zhipeng XIE Xiuwen NIE Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030China Department of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center University of Hawaii at ManoaHonolulu 96822USA Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE and School of the Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China School of Computer Science Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is challenging due to the complex physical processes ***,we introduce a new TC intensity prediction scheme for the western North Pacific(WNP)based on a time-dependent theory of TC intensification,termed the energetically based dynamical system(EBDS)model,together with the use of a long short-term memory(LSTM)neural *** time-dependent theory,TC intensity change is controlled by both the internal dynamics of the TC system and various environmental factors,expressed as environmental dynamical *** LSTM neural network is used to predict the environmental dynamical efficiency in the EBDS model trained using besttrack TC data and global reanalysis data during 1982–*** transfer learning and ensemble methods are used to retrain the scheme using the environmental factors predicted by the Global Forecast System(GFS)of the National Centers for Environmental prediction during 2017–*** predicted environmental dynamical efficiency is finally iterated into the EBDS equations to predict TC *** new scheme is evaluated for TC intensity prediction using both reanalysis data and the GFS prediction *** intensity prediction by the new scheme shows better skill than the official prediction from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and those by other state-of-art statistical and dynamical forecast systems,except for the 72-h *** at the longer lead times of 96 h and 120 h,the new scheme has smaller forecast errors,with a more than 30%improvement over the official forecasts.

关键词： tropical cyclones western North Pacific intensity prediction EBDS LSTM

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A Logistic-growth-equation-based intensity prediction Scheme for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第10期38卷 1750-1762页

作者： Yanchen ZHOU Jiuwei ZHAO Ruifen ZHAN Peiyan CHEN Zhiwei WU Lan WANG Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences Institute of Atmospheric SciencesFudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Fuzhou 350001China Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030China Big Data Institute for Carbon Emission and Environmental Pollution Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity remains a challenge due to the complex physical processes involved in TC intensity changes.A seven-day TC intensity prediction scheme based on the logistic growth equation(LGE)for the western North Pacific(WNP)has been developed using the observed and reanalysis *** the LGE,TC intensity change is determined by a growth term and a decay *** two terms are comprised of four free parameters which include a time-dependent growth rate,a maximum potential intensity(MPI),and two *** 33 years of training samples,optimal predictors are selected first,and then the two constants are determined based on the least square method,forcing the regressed growth rate from the optimal predictors to be as close to the observed as *** estimation of the growth rate is further refined based on a step-wise regression(SWR)method and a machine learning(ML)method for the period 1982−*** the LGE-based scheme,a total of 80 TCs during 2015−17 are used to make independent *** show that the root mean square errors of the LGE-based scheme are much smaller than those of the official intensity forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA),especially for TCs in the coastal regions of East ***,the scheme based on ML demonstrates better forecast skill than that based on *** new prediction scheme offers strong potential for both improving the forecasts for rapid intensification and weakening of TCs as well as for extending the 5-day forecasts currently issued by the CMA to 7-day forecasts.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity prediction western North Pacific logistic growth equation

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Method　of　expected　earthquake　losses　estimation　based　on　the　frequency　of　seismic　site　intensity

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Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition) 1995年第2期8卷 259-264页

作者：高孟潭 Institute of Geophysics State Seismological Bureau Beijing China

During a given period,a site will suffer the attack from earthquake several *** this effect is neglected in the currently used model of loss estimation from earthquake When calculating the occurrence rate of the affected intensity,the difference of the exceeding probability is *** treatment will underestimate the earthquake loss,especially when the exposure period is *** overcome the shortcomings of the model currently used,a new frame of earthquake loss estimation is provided from the logic sense:during the given period,the expected earthquake loss responding to the specific affected intensity is equal to the expected number of the intensity multiplying the expected loss under the condition of such an affected intensity,and the total expected loss is equal to the effects of all the possible *** the basis of the seismicity model used in compiling the 'Chinese Seismic intensity Zoning Map(1990) ',a new formula of expected loss evaluation and the variance of the evaluation are *** is inferred from the example and the comparison with the currently used method that the new method is applicable and *** results will lay a scientific foundation for the estimation of earthquake loss,insurance and disaster prevention.

关键词： seismic disaster intensity prediction probability

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Application of Equivalent Black Body Temperature in the Forecast of Tropical Cyclone intensity

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2007年第4期21卷 465-475页

作者：陈佩燕端义宏余晖胡春梅 Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Chongqing Meteorological Bureau

Using equivalent black body temperature （TBB） data retrieved from meteorological satellite GMS-5 during 1996-2002, the correlation between the circular symmetric/asymmetric component of TBB and the intensity of tropical cyclone （TC） at various time lags from 0 to 48 h is analyzed for the Northwest Pacific （0^-50~N, 120%155~E）, excluding landed and near-coast samples. It is found that the total TBB near southeast of the eyewall, the circular symmetric component, and the sum of the amplitudes of tangential wave numbers 1-10 （SA10） of the TBB between the radii of 0.8^o and 1.7^o are significantly and negatively correlated with the TC intensity at various time lags from 0 to 48 h. Especially, the maximum 24-h lag correlation coefficients reach -0.52, -0.58, and -0.625, respectively. A statistical prediction scheme for TC intensity is developed based on climatic persistent, synoptic, and TBB factors by stepwise regression technique. It is found that the variance contribution of the averaged TBB over the ring between 1.0^o and 1.5^o from the TC center ranks the fourth in the equation for 12-h TC intensity prediction, and those of the total TBB near southeast of the eyewall and the difference between maximum and minimum TBB between 1.1^o and 1.5^o rank the third and fifth respectively in the 24-h forecast equation. It is also shown that, with TBB factors, the following predictions are improved compared to the scheme without TBB factors： 48-h prediction for severe tropical storm （STS）, 12-h prediction for TC with a weakening rate greater than 15 m s-1/12 h, 24-h intensity prediction for TC with almost no intensity change, and 48-h prediction for TC intensifying faster than 10 m s^-1/48 h.

关键词： TBB (black body temperature) asymmetry intensity prediction tropical cyclone

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The　research　on　Hainan　earthquake　insurance　system

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Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition) 1996年第4期9卷 154-157页

作者：沈繁銮李志雄陈定李海华魏定杰林尤儒

ＴｈｅｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎＨａｉｎａｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｉｎｓｕｒａｎｃｅｓｙｓｔｅｍＦＡＮ－ＬＵＡＮＳＨＥＮ１）（沈繁銮），ＺＨＩ－ＸＩＯＮＧＬＩ１）（李志雄），ＤＩＮＧＣＨＥＮ１）（陈定），ＨＡＩ－ＨＵＡＬＩ... 详细信息

ＴｈｅｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎＨａｉｎａｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｉｎｓｕｒａｎｃｅｓｙｓｔｅｍＦＡＮ－ＬＵＡＮＳＨＥＮ１）（沈繁銮），ＺＨＩ－ＸＩＯＮＧＬＩ１）（李志雄），ＤＩＮＧＣＨＥＮ１）（陈定），ＨＡＩ－ＨＵＡＬＩ１）（李海华），ＤＩＮＧ－ＪＩＥＷ...

关键词： Hainan Province intensity prediction property of building loss of earthquake earthquake insurance.

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