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integrated risk assessment OF MAJOR METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS WITH PAPRIKA PEPPER IN HAINAN PROVINCE

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2017年第3期23卷 334-344页

作者： ZHANG Lei HUO Zhi-guo ZHANG Li-zhen HUANG Da-peng Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology Nanjing 210044 China National Meteorological Center Beijing 100081 China China Agricultural University Beijing 100083 China National Climate Center Beijing 100081 China

Paprika pepper, as one of the main vegetable crops, is originated in the tropics and now widely planted in the world for its dietary therapy and medicinal functions. For its typical physiological properties referring to low tolerances to flood, drought and cold, paprika pepper often suffers from one or several disasters during its growing period,especially under tropical climate. Paprika pepper in Hainan, as a typical region of tropical climate in China, sustains flood, chilling and drought disaster risks induced by varied weather systems. This study was to develop and employ appropriate indices to assess hazard, sensitivity, vulnerability and prevention capability for major disasters during paprika pepper growth period, using long-term meteorological data from 1998 to 2011, actual disasters record from 1999 to 2011, production and socioeconomic statistics from 2002 to 2011 at 18 weather stations. Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Entropy method, the combined weight was given to each disaster factor, thus an integrated disaster risk assessment model was developed and applied at regional level. High flood hazard mainly occurred in eastern Hainan, high chilling hazard in north and central mountain areas, and high drought hazard in the western part of Hainan. Drought and chilling sensitivity had a similar spatial distribution which decreased from central to coastal regions while flood sensitivity was the opposite. High vulnerability of the disasters mainly occurred in central regions,similar to low prevention capability. Eastern Hainan suffered from high integrated damage risk. The predicted damage occurrence showed a good agreement with the occurrence of actual disasters. We concluded that an integrated damage risk assessment model could provide a new tool to assess major meteorological disasters and help farmers and policy makers to alleviate the risks of major meteorological disasters for paprika pepper, which seems also suitable for other crops.

关键词： flood chilling drought integrated risk assessment paprika pepper

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Deep Reinforcement Learning Based Decision‑Making Strategy of Autonomous Vehicle in Highway Uncertain Driving Environments

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Automotive Innovation 2023年第3期6卷 438-452页

作者： Huifan Deng Youqun Zhao Qiuwei Wang Anh‑Tu Nguyen Department of Vehicle Engineering Nanjing University of Aeronautics and AstronauticsNanjing 210016China Laboratory LAMIH‑CNRS UMR 8201Universite Polytechnique Hauts-de-France59300 ValenciennesHauts‑de‑FranceFrance INSA Hauts-de-France 59300 ValenciennesFrance

Uncertain environment on multi-lane highway,e.g.,the stochastic lane-change maneuver of surrounding vehicles,is a big challenge for achieving safe automated highway *** improve the driving safety,a heuristic reinforcement learning decision-making framework with integrated risk assessment is ***,the framework includes a long short-term memory model to predict the trajectory of surrounding vehicles and a future integrated risk assessment model to estimate the possible driving ***,a heuristic decaying state entropy deep reinforcement learning algorithm is introduced to address the exploration and exploitation dilemma of reinforcement ***,the framework also includes a rule-based vehicle decision model for interaction decision problems with surrounding *** proposed framework is validated in both low-density and high-density traffic *** results show that the traffic efficiency and vehicle safety are both improved compared to the common dueling double deep Q-Network method and rule-based method.

关键词： Automated driving Decision making Uncertain driving environments Reinforcement learning Multi-lane traffic integrated risk assessment

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