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Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Intensification to inner-core structure

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第10期32卷 1407-1418页

作者： GE Xuyang XU Wei ZHOU Shunwu Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science & Technology State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

In this study, the dependence of tropical cyclone （TC） development on the inner-core structure of the parent vortex is examined using a pair of idealized numerical simulations. It is found that the radial profile of inner-core relative vorticity may have a great impact on its subsequent development. For a system with a larger inner-core relative vorticity/inertial stability, the conversion ratio of the diabatic heating to kinetic energy is greater. Furthermore, the behavior of the convective vorticity eddies is likely modulated by the system-scale circulation. For a parent vortex with a relatively higher inner-core vorticity and larger negative radial vorticity gradient, convective eddy formation and radially inward propagation is promoted through vorticity segregation. This provides a greater potential for these small-scale convective cells to self-organize into a mesoscale inner-core structure in the TC. In turn, convectively induced diabatic heating that is close to the center, along with higher inertial stability, efficiently enhances system-scale secondary circulation. This study provides a solid basis for further research into how the initial structure of a TC influences storm dynamics and thermodynamics.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensification inner-core structure

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Assimilation of All-sky Geostationary Satellite Infrared Radiances for Convection-Permitting Initialization and Prediction of Hurricane Joaquin(2015)

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第11期39卷 1859-1872页

作者： Lei ZHU Zhiyong MENG Yonghui WENG Fuqing ZHANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Laboratory for Climate and Ocean–Atmosphere Studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China I.M.System Group(IMSG) at Environmental Modeling Center(EMC)NCEPNWSNOAACollege ParkMD 20740USA Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science and Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability TechniquesThe Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPennsylvania 16802USA

Intensity forecasting is one of the most challenging aspects of tropical cyclone(TC) forecasting. This work examines the impact of assimilating high-resolution all-sky infrared radiance observations from geostationary satellite GOES-13 on the convection-permitting initialization and prediction of Hurricane Joaquin(2015) with an ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Given that almost all operational global and regional models struggled to capture Hurricane Joaquin(2015)'s intensity, this study examines the potential in improving Joaquin's prediction when assimilating all-sky infrared radiances from GOES-13's water vapor channel. It is demonstrated that, after a few 3-hour cycles assimilating all-sky radiance, the WRF model was able to forecast reasonably well Joaquin's intensity,including its rapid intensification(RI). The improvement was largely due to a more realistic initial hurricane structure with a stronger, warmer, and more compact inner-core. Ensemble forecasts were used to further explore the important physical mechanisms driving the hurricane's RI. Results showed that the RI forecasts were greatly impacted by the initial inner-core vortex structure.

关键词： all-sky infrared radiance TC intensity EnKF inner-core structure

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