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Modeling highway Traffic safety for Developing Countries Using Delphi Technique and Bayesian Network： Case Study for Nigeria

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Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture 2018年第7期12卷 527-542页

作者： Anthony C.Mbakwe AnthonyA.Saka KeechooChoi Young-Jae Lee Dynatrend Construction Ltd. Bowie MD 20720 Maryland USA Department of Transportation and Urban Infrastructure Studies School of Engineering Morgan State University Baltimore MD 21251 USA Department of Transportation Engineering Ajou University Suwon 442-749 Korea

highway traffic safety is an issue confronting developing countries and those of industrialized nations. Nigeria, as a developing country, has been experiencing unusually high traffic related injury and fatality rates. In order to commence combating highway safety problems in Nigeria, the first task is to identify the major contributing factors; however, Nigeria has no reliable and comprehensive database of traffic accidents and casualties. Consequently, the Delphi technique was utilized in generating the required data such as number of registered automobiles, number of licensed drivers, and annual fatality count for modeling and forecasting accident rates in Nigeria. A Bayesian network model was developed and used, with the data obtained from Delphi process, to demonstrate possible traffic safety responses to different scenarios of changes in the Nigerian socio-political culture. Although the Delphi technique and the Bayesian network model only estimate the accident and safety data, those methods can be a realistic option when those data are not available, especially for the developing countries. As a result, the major accident contributors have been identified and the top three contributors-road condition, DUI （driving under the influence） and reckless driving-are policy related. The Nigerian traffic safety outlook would improve significantly if the existing laws and policies can be enforced, even at a very moderate level.

关键词： highway safety Delphi technique Bayesian network developing countries Nigeria.

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An investigation of influential factors of downgrade truck crashes:A logistic regression approach

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Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(English Edition) 2019年第2期6卷 185-195页

作者： Milhan Moomen Mahdi Rezapour Khaled Ksaibati Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering University of Wyoming

Truck crash occurrence causes extensive damage to lives and property. Truck crashes on downgrades exacerbate these costs due to the likelihood of a runaway being *** agencies have continuously sought engineering measures to reduce the incidence of such crashes. However, most past studies on truck crashes have focused on level roadway sections of highways without considering the effects of downgrades. The difference in geometric characteristics of downgrades and the mechanics of truck operations on such sections mean different factors may be at play in contrast to level roadway *** paper investigated the factors influencing truck crashes on downgrades; an attempt to fill in some of the research gaps. An empirical analysis of factors affecting truck crashes on two-lane downgrade roadways in Wyoming was carried out using a binary logistic regression technique. After calibrating the model, the effect of each significant variable was determined using theoretical concepts established in previous studies and engineering intuition. Crash factors including driver gender and age, weather, lighting and road conditions, number of crest curves, crash type, number of driveways, day of week and posted speed limit were found to be significant. The results of the study offer new understandings into how the identified factors influence truck crashes on downgrades.

关键词： highway safety Truck crashes Downgrades crashes Crash factors Logistic regression

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Pavement markings:identification of relevant covariates and controllable factors of retroreflectivity performance as a road safety measureáã

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Transportation safety and Environment 2021年第2期3卷 123-131页

作者： Linda Lee Ho J́ulio Silvio de Souza Bueno Filho Walquiria Yumiko Fujii Cludia A.S.Machado Liedi Legi Bariani Bernucci JoséAlberto Quintanilha University of São Paulo Department of Production EngineeringSo Paulo 05508-070Brazil Federal University of Lavras Department of Exact SciencesMinas Gerais 37200-900Brazil University of São Paulo Department of Transport EngineeringSão Paulo 05508-070Brazil Institute of Energy and Environment São Paulo 05508-010Brazil

In this paper we present relevant contributions and important features related to the study of the retroreflectivity performance of pavement *** contribution of this paper is ***,we propose an artificial scheme to allow some randomization of the treatments owing to several restrictions imposed on the choice of the experimental *** is an experiment involving one fixed factor(three types of materials)in a randomized block design executed on a high-traffic-volume *** this condition,the traffic volume works as a stress factor and the degradation of the retroreflectivity of pavement markings is faster than the degradation on rural roads or *** is related to the second contribution:the possibility of a reduction of experimental *** current experiment spent 20 weeks to collect the *** finally a mixed linear model considering three random effects and several fixed effects is fitted and the most relevant effects pointed *** study can help highway managers to improve road safety by scheduling the maintenance of pavement marks at the appropriate time,choosing adequate material for the pavement markings and applying the proposed artificial scheme in future studies.

关键词： highway safety design of experiment mixed linear model longitudinal experiment pavement markings

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Finite Element Modeling of Impact between Bus and Roadside Guardrail

Finite Element Modeling of Impact between Bus and Roadside G...

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The 4th International Forum of Automotive Traffic safety

作者： ZHANG Fan1 2 WANG Dazhi1 ZHOU Qing1 ZHANG Jinhuan1 WANG Chengbiao2 ZHANG Ying3 BAI Shufeng3 LIANG Yaping3 1. State Key Laboratory of Automotive safety and Energy Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 2. China University of Geosicences (Beijing) Beijing 100083 3. Beijing Zhonglu’an Traffic TechnologicaCo. Ltd Beijing 100071

Roadside guardrail on highway is an essential protecting device for preventing vehicles from accidentally running off the road. The guardrail should provide protection for both passenger cars and large vehicles such as buses and trucks. Finite element modeling is an effective and efficient design tool for simulating impact between guardrail and vehicle. A finite element model of 10 m long bus was developed for simulating the impact between the bus and a concrete guardrail. The required regulation test is an angular impact, in which the bus impacts with the guardrail at 20 degree and 80 km/h. Unlike a car crash test that typically lasts about 0.1 seconds, the vehicle-guardrail crash test needs to be monitored for one second or longer. This is a great challenge to the bus modeling in terms of balancing the structural details and computational efficiency. To better capture the impact response, the bus suspension, the tire rotation, the steering, and the tire pressure are also modeled. The simulation correlates well with the test results in the local deformation of the bus, and more importantly, in the post-impact trajectory of the bus.

关键词： highway safety Bus Guardrail Impact Finite element modeling

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