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The climate impact of high seas shipping

National Science Review 2023年第3期10卷 102-116页

作者： Yuze Li Peng Jia Shangrong Jiang Haijiang Li Haibo Kuang Yongmiao Hong Shouyang Wang Xueting Zhao Dabo Guan Questrom School of Business Boston University Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies Dalian Maritime University School of Maritime Economics and Management Dalian Maritime University School of Economics and Management University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Forecasting Science Chinese Academy of Sciences School of Entrepreneurship and Management Shanghai Tech University Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua University School of International Development University of East Anglia

Strict carbon emission regulations are set with respect to countries’ territorial seas or shipping activities in exclusive economic zones to meet their climate change commitment under the Paris ***,no shipping policies on carbon mitigation are proposed for the world’s high seas regions,which results in carbon intensive shipping *** this paper,we propose a Geographic-based Emission Estimation Model(GEEM) to estimate shipping GHG emission patterns on high seas *** results indicate that annual emissions of carbon dioxide equivalent(CO2-e) in shipping on the high seas reached 211.60 million metric tonnes in 2019,accounting for about one-third of all shipping emissions globally and exceeding annual GHG emissions of countries such as *** average emission from shipping activities on the high seas is growing at approximately 7.26% per year,which far surpasses the growth rate of global shipping emission at 2.23%.We propose implementation of policies on each high seas region with respect to the main emission driver identified from our *** policy evaluation results show that carbon mitigation policies could reduce emissons by 25.46 and 54.36 million tonnes CO2-e in the primary intervention stage and overall intervention stage,respectively,with 12.09% and 25.81% reduction rates in comparison to the2019 annual GHG emissions in high seas shipping.

关键词： high seas international shipping GHG emission policy evaluation emission drivers

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