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Optimal Credibility Estimation of Random Parameters in hierarchical Random Effect linear model

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2015年第5期28卷 1058-1069页

作者： WEN Limin FANG Jing MEI Guoping WU Xianyi School of Mathematics and Information Science Jiangxi Normal University School of Information Management Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science East China Normal University

In the hierarchical random effect linear model, the Bayes estimator of random parameter are not only dependent on specific prior distribution but also it is difficult to calculate in most *** paper derives the distributed-free optimal linear estimator of random parameters in the model by means of the credibility theory method. The estimators the authors derive can be applied in more extensive practical scenarios since they are only dependent on the first two moments of prior parameter rather than on specific prior distribution. Finally, the results are compared with some classical models and a numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the estimators.

关键词： Bayes theory credibility estimator hierarchical linear model random effect

Optimal Credibility Estimation of Random Parameters in hierarchical Random Effect linear model

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Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics 2015年第5期26卷 1058-1069页

In the hierarchical random effect linear model, the Bayes estimator of random parameter are not only dependent on specific prior distribution but also it is difficult to calculate in most cases. This paper derives the distributed-free optimal linear estimator of random parameters in the model by means of the credibility theory method. The estimators the authors derive can be applied in more extensive practical scenarios since they are only dependent on the first two moments of prior parameter rather than on specific prior distribution. Finally, the results are compared with some classical models and a numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the estimators.

关键词： Bayes theory credibility estimator hierarchical linear model random effect

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特种作业人员安全执行力影响因素研究

Should phenological information be applied to predict agronomic traits across growth stages of winter wheat?

运筹与模糊学 2024年第3期14卷 76-84页

作者：魏越越江苏大学管理学院，江苏镇江

特种作业人员的作业环境危险系数高、安全隐患多，其安全工作任务的执行效果对自身与环境的安全至关重要。在国内外安全执行力的相关研究基础上，从个体和组织两层面构建特种作业人员安全执行力的影响因素模型，使用分层线性模型进行实... 详细信息

特种作业人员的作业环境危险系数高、安全隐患多，其安全工作任务的执行效果对自身与环境的安全至关重要。在国内外安全执行力的相关研究基础上，从个体和组织两层面构建特种作业人员安全执行力的影响因素模型，使用分层线性模型进行实证检验。研究发现：特种作业人员安全执行力受到个体层面安全执行意愿、安全素养及组织层面安全文化、安全干预、安全投入的正向影响；组织层面因素通过个体层面因素间接影响安全执行力；安全干预和安全文化能加强安全执行意愿对安全执行力的影响，安全干预和安全投入能加强安全素养对安全执行力的正向影响；在多重组织因素的联合作用下，安全文化对安全素养和安全执行力之间关系产生负向调节效果。

关键词：特种作业人员安全执行力生产制造型企业分层线性模型 Special Operation Personnel Safety Execution Manufacturing Companies hierarchical linear model

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The Crop Journal 2022年第5期10卷 1346-1352页

作者： Yu Zhao Yang Meng Shaoyu Han Haikuan Feng Guijun Yang Zhenhai Li Key Laboratory of Quantitative Remote Sensing in Agriculture of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Information Technology Research CenterBeijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry SciencesBeijing 100097China Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production Co-sponsored by Province and Ministry Nanjing Agricultural UniversityNanjing 210095JiangsuChina College of Geomatics Shandong University of Science and TechnologyQingdao 266590ShandongChina

Most existing agronomic trait models of winter wheat vary across growing seasons, and it is an open question whether a unified statistical model can be developed to predict agronomic traits using a vegetation index(VI) across multiple growing seasons. In this study, we constructed a hierarchical linear model(HLM) to automatically adapt the relationship between VIs and agronomic traits across growing seasons and tested the model’s performance by sensitivity analysis. Results demonstrated that(1) optical VIs give poor performance in predicting AGB and PNC across all growth stages, whereas VIs perform well for LAI, LGB, LNC, and SPAD.(2) The sensitivity indices of the phenological information in the AGB and PNC prediction models were 0.81–0.86 and 0.66–0.73, whereas LAI, LGB, LNC, and SPAD prediction models produced sensitivity indexes of 0.01–0.02, 0.01–0.02, 0.01–0.02, and 0.02–0.08, respectively.(3) The AGB and PNC prediction models considering ZS were more accurate than the prediction models based on VI. Whether or not phenological information is used, there was no difference in model accuracy for LGB,LNC, SPAD, and LAI. This study may provide a guideline for deciding whether phenological correction is required for estimation of agronomic traits across multiple growing seasons.

关键词： Agronomic traits Phenological effect Vegetation index hierarchical linear model Winter wheat

Posterior propriety of an objective prior for generalized hierarchical normal linear models

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Statistical Theory and Related Fields 2022年第4期6卷 309-326页

作者： Cong Lin Dongchu Sun Chengyuan Song School of Statistics East China Normal UniversityShanghaiPeople's Republic of China Department of Statistics University of Nebraska-LincolnLincolnNEUSA Boehringer Ingelheim(China) ShanghaiPeople's Republic of China

Bayesian hierarchical models has been widely used in modern statistical *** deal with the data having complex structures,we propose a generalized hierarchical normal linear(GHNL)model which accommodates arbitrarily many levels,usual design matrices and'vanilla'covari-ance *** hyperpriors can be employed for the GHNL model to express ignorance or match frequentist properties,yet the common objective Bayesian approaches are infeasible or fraught with danger in hierarchical *** tackle this issue,[Berger,J,Sun,D.&Song,C.(2020b).An objective prior for hyperparameters in normal hierarchical *** of Multi-variate Analysis,178,***://***/10.1016/jmva.2020.104606]proposed a particular objective prior and investigated its properties *** propriety is important for the choice of priors to guarantee the convergence of MCMC *** Berger conjec-tured that the resulting posterior is proper for a hierarchical normal model with arbitrarily many levels,a rigorous proof of which was not given,*** this paper,we complete this story and provide an user friendly *** main contribution of this paper is to propose a new technique for deriving an elaborate upper bound on the integrated likelihood but also one uni-fied approach to checking the posterior propriety for linear *** eficient Gibbs sampling method is also introduced and outperforms other sampling approaches considerably.

关键词： hierarchical linear model linear mixed-effect model objective Bayesian analysis posterior propriety Gibbs sampling

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班级规模、同伴特征与初中生学业能力

中小学学校管理 2024年第1期

作者：曹淑江谢立艳

缩小班级规模是国内外广泛关注的一种提高教学质量并促进教育公平的方式。文章基于中国教育追踪调查(CEPS)数据，采用多层次模型研究班级规模对初中生学业能力的影响，在优质教育资源匮乏的情况下，不同类型的班级生源质量存在明显的差... 详细信息

缩小班级规模是国内外广泛关注的一种提高教学质量并促进教育公平的方式。文章基于中国教育追踪调查(CEPS)数据，采用多层次模型研究班级规模对初中生学业能力的影响，在优质教育资源匮乏的情况下，不同类型的班级生源质量存在明显的差异，大班往往拥有更好的生源，这是导致出现班级规模正向效应估计偏差的主要原因。本研究尝试讨论不同类型班级的班级规模影响学业能力的机制。研究发现，班级规模与学业能力之间存在“倒U型”的非线性关系。中介效应分析结果表明不同类型班级的班级规模影响学业能力的机制不同，其中非大班的班级规模产生正向效应的主要作用路径是同伴效应，但是当班级规模增加到一定程度后，拥挤效应成为班级规模负向效应的主要作用机制。另外，班级规模对不同类型学生的影响存在异质性，适度增加班级人数对所有分位点的学生均产生显著的正向影响，且影响程度基本无差异。然而，当班级规模极度扩张时，学业能力较强的学生对拥挤带来的负向效应更敏感。

关键词：班级规模同伴效应学业能力多层次模型 CEPS class size peer effect academic ability hierarchical linear model CEPS

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多维蓝绿空间特征与老年心理健康的关系探究

China City Planning Review 2023年第4期32卷 53-63页

作者：岳亚飞杨东峰徐丹 Yuan Jingcheng Lu Xu School of Architecture and Urban Planning Shenyang Jianzhu University Liaoning Provincial Key Laboratory of Ecological Construction and Early Warning Control in Urban Areas School of Architecture&Fine Art Dalian University of TechnologyDalianP.R.China the Design Institute of Civil Engineering&Architecture of DUT DalianP.R.China Liaoning Provincial Key Laboratory of Ecological Construction and Early Warning Control in Urban Areas ShenyangP.RChina School of Architecture and Urban Planning Shenyang Jianzhu UniversityShenyangP.R.China

According to the Theory of Justice,the characteristics of vulnerable groups should be considered in realizing the mental health benefits of blue-green spaces,so as to promote substantive equity and welfare in *** unclear relationship between the blue-green space indicator system and the mental health of older adults at both the quantitative and qualitative levels has hindered the development of spatial justice and health equity in *** on the theories of stress reduction and attention restoration,this paper uses the hierarchical linear model to systematically explore the relationship between the qualitative(environmental characteristics and landscape patterns of parks and water bodies)and quantitative(visibility and accessibility)characteristics of blue-green spaces and the mental health of older *** research finds that in the spatial dimension,there is a significant difference in the relationship between the qualitative and quantitative indicators of blue-green space and the mental health of older adults,and the relationship between the availability,visibility,and accessibility of blue-green space and the mental health of older adults is weakened in *** the social dimension,resilient ecological spaces can regulate and buffer the negative impacts on the mental health of older adults that are brought about by unfavorable socio-economic factors like having no *** research can provide guidance for environmental design and the selection of planning indicators to improve the mental health of older adults,and give empirical evidence for reaching a more“equitable”layout of urban blue-green spaces,so as to promote the development of age friendly cities and green and healthy cities.

关键词： blue-green space older adults mental health hierarchical linear model

The Impacts of Income from Non-agricultural Industries Operated by Rural households on Farmers' Income

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Asian Agricultural Research 2011年第6期3卷 94-97,117页

作者： XU Ping Huaiyin Institute of Technology Huai’an 223001China

Income from non-agricultural industries operated by rural households is an important income source of farmers' income. According to the Regional Rural Residents' Net Income Per Capita in 2004 issued by the State Statistics Bureau and the relevant statistics of national comprehensive investigation(CGSS2005) in 2005, the impacts of farmers' income gap and farmers' individual features on their income and the impacts of income from non-agricultural industries operated by rural households on farmers' individual income differences are analyzed by applying hierarchical linear models (HLM) as an analysis tool to establish the null model of HLM, excluding the second level model of the second level prediction variables and including the second level model of the second layer prediction variables. The analysis assumes that farmers' individual income varies hugely in different provinces; farmers' individual income has close relation with farmers' individual features; the improvement of income from non-agricultural industries operated by rural households has different impacts on farmers' income.

关键词： Non-agricultural income Household operation hierarchical linear model China

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国际服务业生产率的发展趋势及影响因素分析