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Application of an Improved Analog-Based heavy precipitation Forecast Model to the Yangtze–Huai River Valley and Its Performance in June–July 2020

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第6期35卷 987-997页

作者： Baiquan ZHOU Panmao ZHAI Ruoyun NIU State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

precipitation extremes,such as the record-breaking Meiyu characterized by frequent occurrences of rainstorms that resulted in severe flooding over the Yangtze-Huai River valley(YHRV)in June-July 2020,are always attracting considerable interest,highlighting the importance of improving the forecast accuracy at the medium-to-long *** elevate the skill in forecasting heavy precipitation events(HPEs)with both long and short durations,the Key Influential Systems Based Analog Model(KISAM)was further improved and brought into operational application in *** and comparison of this newly adapted analog model and ensemble mean forecasts from the ECMWF at lead times of up to 15 days were carried out for the identified 16 HPEs over the YHRV in June-July *** results demonstrate that KISAM is advantageous over ECMWF ensemble mean for forecasts of heavy precipitation≥25 mm day-1 at the medium-to-long(6-15-day)lead times,based on the traditional dichotomous *** short lead times,ECMWF ensemble mean outperforms KISAM due largely to the low false alarm rates(FARs)benefited from an underestimation of the frequency of heavy ***,at the medium-to-long forecast range,the large fraction of misses induced by the high degree of underforecasting overwhelms the fairly good FARs in the ECMWF ensemble mean,which partly explains its inferiority to KISAM in terms of the threat *** assessment on forecasts of the latitudinal location of accumulated heavy precipitation indicates that smaller displacement errors also account for a part of the better performance of KISAM at lead times of 8-12 days.

关键词： analog-based forecast heavy precipitation event forecast verification latitudinal rainband

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Analysis of Pseudomomentum Wave-Activity Density in a heavy Rainfall event in East China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2014年第1期7卷 42-48页

作者： RAN Ling-Kun HAO Shou-Chang QI Yan-Bin Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Shanxi Provincial Meteorological Service Weather Modification Center Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

Taking into account moisture in virtue of general potential temperature,the author derive a three-dimensional(3D) pseudomomentum wave-activity relation for the moist atmosphere from the primitive equations in Cartesian coordinates using the Momentum-Casimir *** the wave-activity relation is constructed in an ageostrophic and non-hydrostatic dynamical framework,it may be applicable to diagnosing the evolution and propagation of mesoscale systems leading to heavy *** theoretical analysis shows that,besides the local change of wave-activity flux divergence and source or sink,the wave-activity relation includes two additional forcing *** first is the zonal gradient of difference between general potential temperature and potential temperature perturbations,and the second is the covariance of the solenoid and gradient of water vapor,denoting the direct influence of moisture on wave-activity *** wave-activity density was applied to a heavy precipitation event occurring in the Jianghuai region of *** calculation showed that the wave-activity density was consistent with 6-h accumulated precipitation observations,in terms of both spatial distribution and temporal *** suggested that the disturbance represented by wave-activity density was closely related to the heavy *** the wave-activity flux divergence and the covariance of the solenoid and gradient of water vapor made the primary contribution to the local change of wave-activity density,the covariance was more *** zonal gradient of difference between general potential temperature and potential temperature perturbations made a weaker contribution to the waveactivity density.

关键词： pseudomomentum wave-activity density wave-activity flux wave-basic flow interaction heavy precipitation event

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