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Changes in the ground surface temperature in permafrost regions along the Qinghaie-Tibet engineering corridor from 1900 to 2014:A modified assessment of CMIP6

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2023年第1期14卷 85-96页

作者： Zan-Pin XING Lin ZHAO Lei FAN Guo-Jie HU De-Fu ZOU Chong WANG Shu-Ci LIU Er-Ji DU Yao XIAO Ren LI Guang-Yue LIU Yong-Ping QIAO Jian-Zong SHI Cryosphere Research Station on the QinghaieTibet Plateau State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric ScienceNorthwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourceChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station School of Geographical SciencesSouthwest UniversityChongqing 400715China Department of Environment and Science Queensland GovernmentBrisbaneQLD 4102Australia

Numerous studies were published in the last two decades to evaluate and project the permafrost changes in its thermal state,mainly based on the soil temperature datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP),and discuss the impacts of permafrost changes on regional hydrological,ecological and climatic systems and even carbon ***,limited monitored soil temperature data are available to validate the CMIP outputs,resulting in the over-projection of future permafrost changes in CMIP3 and ***,future permafrost changes in CMIP6,particularly over the QinghaieTibet Plateau(QTP),where permafrost covers more than 40%of its territory,are still un*** address this gap,we evaluated and calibrated the monthly ground surface temperature(GST;5 cm below the ground surface),which was often used as the upper boundary to simulate and project permafrost changes derived from 19 CMIP6 Earth System Models(ESMs)against in situ measurements over the *** generated the monthly GST series from 1900 to 2014 for five sites based on the linear calibration models and validated them through the three other sites using the same calibration *** showed that all of the ESMs could capture the dynamics of in situ GST with high correlations(r>0.90).However,large errors were detected with a broad range of centred root-mean-square errors(1.14-4.98℃).The Top 5 model ensembles(MME5)performed better than most individual ESMs and averaged multi-model ensembles(MME19).The calibrated GST performed better than the GST obtained from *** annual and seasonal GSTs exhibited warming trends with an average annual rate of 0.04℃ per decade in the annual *** average seasonal warming rate was highest in winter and spring and lowest in *** reconstructed GST data series could be used to simulate the long-term permafrost temperature over the QTP.

关键词： ground surface temperature CMIP6 Cold bias Permafrost Qinghaie-Tibet engineering corridor

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The Sensitivity of ground surface temperature Prediction to Soil Thermal Properties Using the Simple Biosphere Model(SiB2)

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2012年第3期29卷 623-634页

作者：张晓惠高志球魏东平 College of Earth Science Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Computational Geodynamics Chinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences College of Applied Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

Using the Simple Biosphere Model （SiB2）, soil thermal properties （STP） were examined in a Tibetan prairie during the monsoon period to investigate ground surface temperature prediction. We improved the SiB2 model by incorporating a revised force-restore method （FRM） to take the vertical heterogeneity of soil thermal diffusivity （k） into account. The results indicate that （1） the revised FRM alleviates daytime overestimation and nighttime underestimation in modeled ground surface temperature （Tg）, and （2） its role in little rainfall events is significant because the vertical gradient of k increases with increasing surface evaporation. Since the original formula of thermal conductivity （A） in the SiB2 greatly underestimates soil thermal conductivity, we compared five Mgorithms of A involving soil moisture to investigate the cause of overestimation during the day and underestimation at night on the basis of the revised FRM. The results show that （1） the five algorithms significantly improve Tg prediction, especially in daytime, and （2） taking one of these five algorithms as an example, the simulated Tg values in the daytime are closer to the field measurements than those in the nighttime. The differences between modeled Tg and field measurements are mostly within the margin of error of -4-2 K during 3 August to 4 September 1998.

关键词： land surface processes SiB2 sensitivity ground surface temperature soil thermal diffusivity soil thermal conductivity

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Recent changes in ground surface thermal regimes in the context of air temperature warming over the Heihe River Basin, China

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2014年第4期6卷 273-281页

作者： QingFeng Wang TingJun Zhang XiaoQing Peng Bin Cao State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Earth and Environmental Sciences Lanzhou University National Snow and Ice Data Center Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences University of Colorado at Boulder

Changes in ground surface thermal regimes play a vital role in surface and subsurface hydrology, ecosystem diversity and productivity, and global thermal, water and carbon budgets as well as climate change. Estimating spring, summer, autumn and winter air temperatures and mean annual air temperature（MAAT） from 1960 through 2008 over the Heihe River Basin reveals a statistically significant trend of 0.31 °C/decade, 0.28 °C/decade, 0.37 °C/decade, 0.50 °C/decade, and 0.37 °C /decade, respectively. The averaged time series of mean annual ground surface temperature（MAGST） and maximum annual ground surface temperature（MaxAGST） for 1972–2006 over the basin indicates a statistically significant trend of 0.58 °C/decade and 1.27 °C/decade, respectively. The minimum annual ground surface temperature（MinAGST） in the same period remains unchanged as a whole. Estimating surface freezing/thawing index as well as the ratio of freezing index to thawing index（RFT） in the period between 1959 and 2006 over the basin indicates a statistically significant trend of-42.5 °C-day/decade, 85.4 °C-day/decade and-0.018/decade, respectively.

关键词： air temperature ground surface temperature freezing index thawing index tendency rate Heihe River Basin

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Assessment of the spatial extent of permafrost in the Upper Indus Basin(UIB)

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Journal of Mountain Science 2023年第6期20卷 1508-1525页

作者： Wasim HASSAN G.JEELANI A.P.DIMRI Marcus NüSSER Department of Earth Sciences University of KashmirSrinagar 190006India School of Environmental Sciences Jawaharlal Nehru UniversityNew Delhi 110067India Department of Geography South Asia Institute(SAI)Heidelberg UniversityHeidelberg 69115Germany Heidelberg Centre for the Environment(HCE) Heidelberg UniversityHeidelberg 69120Germany

Climate change differentially influences the frozen ground,a major dynamic component of the cryosphere,on a local and regional *** the warming climate with pronounced effects reported at higher altitudes,the characterization of the frozen ground is very important in the Upper Indus Basin(UIB),an important and critical region with respect to climate and hydro-glaciological *** this study,the efficiency and reliability of the surface frost number model are assessed in delineating the spatial extent of different classes of frozen ground in the *** daily MODIS land surface temperature(LST)with ground surface temperature(GST)and surface geomorphological expressions as ground validation datasets are used jointly in efficiently determining the extent of different classes of frozen ground(continuous and discontinuous permafrost and seasonal frost).The LST and GST resonate with each other in the annual cycle of temperature variation,however,with mean annual LST exhibiting an offset(cold bias)of 5 to 7℃relative to mean *** study shows that the highest permafrost extent is observed in areas where the lowest thinning rates of glacier ice are reported and vice *** surface frost number model categorizes an area of 38%±3%and 15%±3%in the UIB as permafrost and seasonal frost,*** on the altitude model,the lower limit of alpine permafrost is approximated at a mean altitude of 4919±590 m *** the *** present study acts as preliminary work in the data sparse and inaccessible regions of the UIB in characterizing the frozen and unfrozen ground and may act as a promising input data source in glaciohydro-meteorological models for the Himalaya and *** addition,the study also underlines the consideration of this derelict cryospheric climatic variable in defining and accounting for the sustainable development of socio-economic systems through its intricate ramification on agricultural activity,landscape stability and infrastruc

关键词： Upper Indus Basin Land surface temperature ground surface temperature surface frost number Permafrost Seasonal frost

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