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Input database related uncertainty of Biome-BGCMuSo agroenvironmental model outputs

International Journal of Digital Earth 2021年第11期14卷 1582-1601页

作者： Nándor Fodor LászlóPásztor Brigitta Szabó Annamária Laborczi Klára Pokovai Dóra Hidy Roland Hollós Erzsébet Kristóf Anna Kis Laura Dobor AnikóKern Thomas Grünwald Zoltán Barcza Centre for Agricultural Research Agricultural InstituteMartonvásárHungary Centre for Agricultural Research Institute for Soil SciencesBudapestHungary Department of Meteorology Eötvös Loránd UniversityBudapestHungary Faculty of Science-Excellence Center Eötvös Loránd UniversityMartonvásárHungary Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences PraguePraha-SuchdolCzech Republic Department of Geophysics and Space Science Eötvös Loránd UniversityBudapestHungary Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology Technische Universität DresdenTharandtGermany

gridded model assessments require at least one climatic and one soil database for carrying out the *** are several parallel soil and climate database development projects that provide sufficient,albeit considerably different,observation based input data for crop model based impact *** input database related uncertainty of the Biome-BGCMuSo agro-environmental model outputs was investigated using three and four different gridded climatic and soil databases,respectively covering an area of nearly 100.000 km2 with 1104 grid ***,temporal,climate and soil database selection related variances were calculated and compared for four model outputs obtained from 30-year-long *** choice of the input database introduced model output variability that was comparable to the variability the year-to-year change of the weather or the spatial heterogeneity of the soil *** database selection could be a decisive factor in carbon sequestration related studies as the soil carbon stock change estimates may either suggest that the simulated ecosystem is a carbon sink or to the contrary a carbon source on the long *** evaluation of the input database quality seems to be an inevitable and highly relevant step towards more realistic plant production and carbon balance simulations.

关键词： Input data gridded data soil parameters climatic parameters uncertainty propagation

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Possible Impact of Spatial and Temporal Non-Uniformity in Land Surface Temperature data on Trend Estimation

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2018年第5期32卷 819-828页

作者： Zhiyu LI Wenjun ZHANG Haiming XU Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology College of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

The present work investigates possible impact of the non-uniformity in observed land surface temperature on trend estimation, based on Climatic Research Unit （CRU） Temperature Version 4 （CRUTEM4） monthly temperature data-sets from 1900 to 2012. The CRU land temperature data exhibit remarkable non-uniformity in spatial and temporal features. The data are characterized by an uneven spatial distribution of missing records and station density, and dis-play a significant increase of available sites around 1950. Considering the impact of missing data, the trends seem to be more stable and reliable when estimated based on data with 〈 40% missing percent, compared to the data with above 40% missing percent. Mean absolute error （MAE） between data with 〈 40% missing percent and global data is only 0.011℃ （0.014℃） for 1900-50 （1951-2012）. The associated trend estimated by reliable data is 0.087℃ decade^-1 （0.186℃ decade^-l） for 1900-50 （1951-2012）, almost the same as the trend of the global data. However, due to non-uniform spatial distribution of missing data, the global signal seems mainly coming from the regions with good data coverage, especially for the period 1900-50. This is also confirmed by an extreme test conducted with the records in the United States and Africa. In addition, the influences of spatial and temporal non-uniform features in observation data on trend estimation are significant for the areas with poor data coverage, such as Africa, while insig-nificant for the countries with good data coverage, such as the United States.

关键词： temperature trend gridded data non-uniformity

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Changes in daily extreme precipitation events in South China from 1961 to 2011

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2015年第1期25卷 58-68页

作者： REN Zhengguo ZHANG Mingjun WANG Shengjie QIANG Fang ZHU Xiaofan DONG Lei College of Geography and Environmental Science Northwest Normal University Lanzhou 730070 China

Based on the daily precipitation from a 0.5°×0.5° gridded dataset and meteorological stations during 1961-2011 released by National Meteorological Information Center, the reliability of this gridded precipitation dataset in South China was evaluated. Five precipitation indices recommended by the World Meteorological Organization （WMO） were selected to investigate the changes in precipitation extremes of South China. The results indicated that the bias between gridded data interpolated to given stations and the corresponding observed data is limited, and the proportion of the number of stations with bias between -10% and 0 is 50.64%. The correlation coefficients between gridded data and observed data are generally above 0.80 in most parts. The average of precipitation indices shows a significant spatial difference with drier northwest section and wetter southeast section. The trend magnitudes of the maximum 5-day precipitation （RX5day）, very wet day precipitation （R95）, very heavy precipitation days （R20mm） and simple daily intensity index （SDII） are 0.17 mm·a^-1, 1.14 mm·a^-1, 0.02 d·a^-1 and 0.01 mm·d^-1·a^-1, respectively, while consecutive wet days （CWD） decrease by -0.05 d·a^-1 during 1961-2011. There is spatial disparity in trend magnitudes of precipitation indices, and approximate 60.85%, 75.32% and 75.74% of the grid boxes show increasing trends for RX5day, SDII and R95, respectively. There are high correlations between precipitation indices and total precipitation, which is statistically significant at the 0.01 level.

关键词： precipitation extremes gridded data South China

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Spatial Interpolation of Daily Precipitation in China:1951-2005

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2010年第6期27卷 1221-1232页

作者： Deliang CHEN Tinghai OU Lebing GONG ChongYu XU 李维京 Chang—Hoi HO 钱维宏 Department of Earth Sciences University of Gothenburg Gothenburg Sweden School of Geography Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 Department of Earth Sciences Uppsala University Sweden Department of Geosciences University of Oslo Norway Laboratory for Climate Studies/National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100029 School of Earth and Environmental Sciences Seoul National University Korea School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871

Climate research relies heavily on good quality instrumental data; for modeling efforts gridded data are needed. So far, relatively little effort has been made to create gridded climate data for China. This is especially true for high-resolution daily data. This work, focuses on identifying an accurate method to produce gridded daily precipitation in China based on the observed data at 753 stations for the period 1951-2005. Five interpolation methods, including ordinary nearest neighbor, local polynomial, radial basis function, inverse distance weighting, and ordinary kriging, have been used and compared. Cross-validation shows that the ordinary kriging based on seasonal semi-variograms gives the best performance, closely followed by the inverse distance weighting with a power of 2. Finally the ordinary kriging is chosen to interpolate the station data to a 18 km× 18 km grid system covering the whole country. Precipitation for each 0.5°×0.5° latitude-longitude block is then obtained by averaging the values at the grid nodes within the block. Owing to the higher station density in the eastern part of the country, the interpolation errors are much smaller than those in the west （west of 100°E）. Excluding 145 stations in the western region, the daily, monthly, and annual relative mean absolute errors of the interpolation for the remaining 608 stations are 74%, 29%, and 16%, respectively. The interpolated daily precipitation has been made available on the internet for the scientific community.

关键词： daily precipitation spatial interpolation ordinary kriging gridded data China

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1961-2013年青藏高原雪雨比变化（英文）

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2016年第9期26卷 1277-1288页

作者：王杰张明军王圣杰任正果车彦军强芳瞿德业 College of Geography and Environmental Science Northwest Normal University

On the basis of two gridded datasets of daily precipitation and temperature with a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5°, and meteorological station data released by the National Meteorological Information Center （NMIC） during 1961-2013, the spatial and temporal variations of total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and snowfall/rainfall ratio （S/R） in the Tibetan Plateau （TP） are analyzed using Sen＇s slope, the Mann-Kendall mutation test, Inverse Distance Weighting （IDW） and the Morlet wavelet. Total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall generally show statistically significant increasing trends of 0.6 mm·a^-1 and 1.3 mm·a^-1, respectively, while amount of snowfall and SIR have significant decreasing trends of-0.6 mm·a^-1 and -0.5% a^-1, respectively. In most regions, due to significant increasing trends in total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall, and significant decreasing trends in amount of snowfall, SIR shows a decreasing trend in the TP. Abrupt changes in total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and S/R are detected for 2005, 2004, 1996 and 1998, respectively. Total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and SIR are concentrated in cycles of approximately 5 years, 10 years, 16 years and 20 years, respectively. The trend magnitudes for total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall all show decreasing-to-increasing trends with elevation, while amount of snowfall and SIR show decreasing trends.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau gridded data snowfall/rainfaU ratio precipitation

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