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Inconsistent increasing of climate potential productivity resulting from global warming and land use transitions in the Dongting Lake Basin,from 2000 to 2020

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Journal of Mountain Science 2023年第7期20卷 1954-1967页

作者： WANG Ji-ren ZHENG Jian SU Jian ZHENG Bo-hong SUN Zhao-qian School of Architecture and Art Central South UniversityChangsha 410083China School of Architecture Changsha University of Science and TechnologyChangsha 410114China School of Architecture South China University of technologyGuangzhou 510640China

In the face of global warming and increasing impervious surfaces,quantifying the change of climate potential productivity(CPP)is of great significance for the food production planning.Targeting the Dongting Lake Basin,which is a key area for food production in China,this paper uses meteorological data,as well as Climate Change Initiative Land Cover,and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model to investigate the CPP and its changes from 2000 to 2020.The suitability of land for cultivation(SLC),and the land use/land cover change(LUCC)are also considered.The results showed that the CPP varied from 9,825 to 20,895 kg ha^(-1).Even though the newly added impervious surfaces indirectly resulted in the decrease of CPP by of 9.81×10~8 kg,overall,the CPP increased at an average rate of 83.7 kg ha^(-1)a^(-1).global warming is the strongest driver behind CPP increase,and CPP has played an important role in the conversions between cultivated land and other land types.The structure of land types tends to be optimized against this challenge.

关键词： Land cultivation Land use/land cover change Climate potential productivity global warming Dongting Lake Basin

Possible Impact of global warming on the Evolution of Hemagglutinins from Influenza A Viruses

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Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2011年第1期24卷 62-67页

作者： YAN ShaoMin WU Guang National Engineering Research Center for Non-food Biorefinery Guangxi Academy of Sciences Nanning 530007 Guangxi China Computational Mutation Project DreamSciTech Consulting Shenzhen 518054 Guangdong China

Objective To determine if global warming has an impact on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses, because both global warming and influenza pandemics/epidemics threaten the world. Methods 4 706 hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses sampled from 1956 to 2009 were converted to a time‐series to show their evolutionary process and compared with the global, northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere temperatures, to determine if their trends run in similar or opposite directions. Point‐to‐point comparisons between temperature and quantified hemagglutinins were performed for all species and for the major prevailing species. Results The comparisons show that the trends for both hemagglutinin evolution and temperature change run in a similar direction. Conclusion global warming has a consistent and progressive impact on the hemagglutinin evolution of influenza A viruses.

关键词： Evolution global warming Hemagglutinin Influenza A virus Mutation

El Niño and the AMO Sparked the Astonishingly Large Margin of warming in the global Mean Surface Temperature in 2023

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1017-1022页

作者： Kexin LI Fei ZHENG Jiang ZHU Qing-Cun ZENG International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society.We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history.Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming threshold.Compared to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño.Moreover,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise.As a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.

关键词： record-breaking temperature global mean surface temperature El Niño AMO global warming

The Impact of global warming on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Possible Mechanism

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第1期31卷 118-130页

作者： FANG Changfang WU Lixin ZHANG Xiang Physical Oceanography Laboratory Ocean University of China Navy Marine Hydrometeorological Center of the Chinese PLA

The response of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） to global warming according to the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model （FOAM） and global warming comparison experiments of 11 IPCC AR4 models is investigated. The results show that North Pacific ocean decadal variability, its dominant mode （i.e., PDO）, and atmospheric decadal variability, have become weaker under global warming, but with PDO shifting to a higher frequency. The SST decadal variability reduction maximum is shown to be in the subpolar North Pacific Ocean and western North Pacific （PDO center）. The atmospheric decadal variability reduction maximum is over the PDO center. It was also found that oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves play a key role in PDO dynamics, especially those in the subpolar ocean. As the frequency of ocean buoyancy increases under a warmer climate, oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves become faster, and the increase in their speed ratio in the high latitudes is much larger than in the low latitudes. The faster baroclinic Rossby waves can cause the PDO to shift to a higher frequency, and North Pacific decadal variability and PDO to become weaker.

关键词： Pacific Ocean decadal variability Pacific Decadal Oscillation global warming baroclinic Rossby waves

On the Response of the global Subduction Rate to global warming in Coupled Climate Models

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第1期31卷 211-218页

作者： LIU Chengyan WANG Zhaomin School of Marine Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

The response of the global subduction rate to global warming was assessed based on a set of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Fourth Assessment Report （AR4） models. It was found that the subduction rate of the global ocean could be significantly reduced under a warming climate, as compared to a simulation of the present-day climate. The reduction in the subduction volume was quantitatively estimated at about 40 Sv and was found to be= primarily induced by the decreasing of the lateral induction term due to a shallower winter mixed layer depth. The shrinking of the winter mixed layer would result from intensified stratification caused by increased heat input into the ocean under a warming climate. A reduction in subduction associated with the vertical pumping term was estimated at about 5 Sv. F^rther, in the Southern Ocean, a significant reduction in subduction was estimated at around 24 Sv, indicating a substantial contribution to the weakening of global subduction.

关键词： subduction rate mixed layer depth global warming

Numerical simulation of the effects of global warming on vegetation in Asia

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2022年第5期13卷 688-699页

作者： Zheng-Qiu ZHANG Pan-Mao ZHAI Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China

The response of vegetation to global warming is closely related to human living environment,and uncertainty in understanding the response remains.This study aims to investigate the effects of CO_(2),temperature and precipitation changes under global warming on natural vegetation in Asia.The biophysical/dynamic vegetation model SSiB4/TRIFFID was employed to perform numerical experiments under different climate scenarios for Asia using the Princeton global forcing dataset(1948–2006).The results showed that precipitation and CO_(2) were the key factors for vegetation growth.The effect of temperature on natural vegetation varied among the study regions.Generally,an increase in temperature was conducive to vegetation growth in eastern Asia,but not in the arid and semi-arid areas of western Asia.In arid and semi-arid areas or in the vicinity of desert,the forcing effects of temperature,precipitation and CO_(2) were more remarkable,which led to a noticeable change in the area of bare land.In terms of the distribution of vegetation species,the above forcing had a greater impact on shrubs,C3 grasses and C4 plants,but less of an impact on broadleaf and coniferous forest.It was also found that,although there was a notable positive correlation between precipitation and vegetation leaf area index in northern high latitudes,the vegetation cover did not increase with precipitation,which was countered by the negative effect of surface cooling in summer.

关键词： global warming Temperature Precipitation CO_(2) SSiB4/TRIFFID Model simulation Vegetation dynamics

Intensified Eastward and Northward Propagation of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation over the Equatorial Indian Ocean in a global warming Scenario

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第1期30卷 167-174页

作者：杨静包庆王晓聪 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

Northward propagation in summer and eastward propagation in winter are two distinguished features of tropical intraseasonal oscillation （TISO） over the equatorial Indian Ocean. According to numerical modeling results, under a global warming scenario, both propagations were intensified. The enhanced northward propagation in summer can be attributed to the enhanced atmosphere-ocean interaction and the strengthened mean southerly wind; and the intensified eastward propagation in winter is associated with the enhanced convection-wind coupling process and the strengthened equatorial Kevin wave. Future changes of TISO propagations need to be explored in more climate models.

关键词： northward propagation eastward propagation tropical intraseasonal oscillation global warming

Changes of the hydrological cycle in two typical Chinese monsoonal temperate glacier basins,： A response to global warming？

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2012年第5期22卷 771-780页

作者： PANG Hongxi LI Zongxing Wilfred H. THEAKSTONE Key Laboratory of Coast and Island Development of Ministry of Education School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China Gansu Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering Research Center/Alashan Desert Eco-hydrology Ex-perimental Research Station Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research InstituteCAS Lanzhou 730000 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China School of Environment and Development University of Manchester Manchester M13 9PL England UK

Studying the response to warming of hydrological systems in Chin＇s temperate glacier region is essential in order to provide information required for sustainable develop- ment. The results indicated the warming climate has had an impact on the hydrological cycle. As the glacier area subject to melting has increased and the ablation seasor has become longer, the contribution of meltwater to annual river discharge has increased. The earlier onset of ablation at higher elevation glaciers has resulted in the period of minimum discharge occurring earlier in the year. Seasonal runoff variations are dominated by snow and glacier melt, and an increase of meltwater has resulted in changes of the annual water cycle in the Lijiang Basin and Hailuogou Basin. The increase amplitude of runoff in the downstream re- gion of the glacial area is much stronger than that of precipitation, resulting from the promi- nent increase of meltwater from glacier region in two basins. Continued observations in the glacierized basins should be undertaken in order to monitor changes, to reveal the relation- ships between climate, glaciers, hydrology and water supplies, and to assist in maintaining sustainable regional development.

关键词： global warming hydrological cycle temperate glacier basins

CO_2 seasonal variation and global change: Test global warming from another point of view

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2017年第1期9卷 46-53页

作者： XiuMing Liu JiaSheng Chen School of Geographical Sciences Fujian Normal University Department of Environment and Geography Macquarie University

CO2 and temperature records at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and other observation stations show that the correlation between CO2 and temperature is not significant. These stations are located away from big cities, and in various latitudes and hemi-spheres. But the correlation is significant in global mean data. Over the last five decades, CO2 has grown at an accelerating rate with no corresponding rise in temperature in the stations. This discrepancy indicates that CO2 probably is not the driving force of temperature change globally but only locally （mainly in big cities）. We suggest that the Earth＇s atmospheric concentration of CO2 is too low to drive global temperature change. Our empirical perception of the global warming record is due to the urban heat island effect： temperature rises in areas with rising population density and rising industrial activity. This effect mainly occurs in the areas with high population and intense human activities, and is not representative of global warming. Regions far from cities, such as the Mauna Loa highland, show no evident warming trend. The global monthly mean temperature calculated by record data, widely used by academic researchers, shows R2=0.765, a high degree of correlation with CO2 . However, the R2 shows much less significance （mean R2=0.024） if calculated by each record for 188 selected stations over the world. This test suggests that the inflated high correlation between CO2 and temperature （mean R2=0.765-0.024=0.741） used in reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） was very likely produced during data correction and processing. This untrue global monthly mean temperature has created a picture： human emission drives global warming.

关键词： CO2 Mauna Loa Hawaii seasonal variations greenhouse effect global warming