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Seasonal Prediction of the global precipitation Annual Modes with the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG

Acta meteorologica Sinica 2009年第4期23卷 428-437页

作者：吴志伟李建平 LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

A right annual cycle is of critical importance for a model to improve its seasonal prediction skill. This work assesses the performance of the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG （GAMIL） in retrospective prediction of the global precipitation annual modes for the 1980 2004 period. The annual modes are gauged by a three-parameter metrics： the long-term annual mean and two major modes of annual cycle （AC）, namely, a solstitial mode and an equinoctial asymmetric mode. The results demonstrate that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction is basically able to capture the major patterns of the long-term annual mean as well as the first AC mode （the solstitial monsoon mode）. The GAMIL has deficiencies in reproducing the second AC mode （the equinoctial asymmetric mode）. The magnitude of the GAMIL prediction tends to be greater than the observed precipitation, especially in the sea areas including the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal （BOB）, and the western North Pacific （WNP）. These biases may be due to underestimation of the convective activity predicted in the tropics, especially over the western Pacific warm pool （WPWP） and its neighboring areas. It is suggested that a more accurate parameterization of convection in the tropics, especially in the Maritime Continent, the WPWP and its neighboring areas, may be critical for reproducing the more realistic annual modes, since the enhancement of convective activity over the WPWP and its vicinity can induce suppressed convection over the WNP, the BOB, and the South Indian Ocean where the GAMIL produces falsely vigorous convections. More efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in monsoon seasons but also in transitional seasons when the second AC mode takes place. Selection of the one-tier or coupled atmosphere-ocean system may also reduce the systematic error of the GAMIL prediction. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL seasonal prediction skill.

关键词： seasonal prediction global precipitation annual cycle climate model

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Development of a global Historic Monthly Mean precipitation Dataset

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2016年第2期30卷 217-231页

作者：杨溯徐文慧许艳李庆祥 National Meteorological Information Center China Meteorological Administration

global historic precipitation dataset is the base for climate and water cycle *** have been several global historic land surface precipitation datasets developed by international data centers such as the US National Climatic Data Center(NCDC),European Climate Assessment & Dataset project team,Met Office,etc.,but so far there are no such datasets developed by any research institute in *** addition,each dataset has its own focus of study region,and the existing global precipitation datasets only contain sparse observational stations over China,which may result in uncertainties in East Asian precipitation *** order to take into account comprehensive historic information,users might need to employ two or more ***,the non-uniform data formats,data units,station IDs,and so on add extra difficulties for users to exploit these *** this reason,a complete historic precipitation dataset that takes advantages of various datasets has been developed and produced in the National Meteorological Information Center of *** observations from 12 sources are aggregated,and the data formats,data units,and station IDs are *** stations with the same ID are identified,with duplicated observations *** test,correlation coefficient test,significance t-test at the95%confidence level,and significance F-test at the 95%confidence level are conducted first to ensure the data *** those datasets that satisfy all the above four criteria are integrated to produce the China Meteorological Administration global precipitation(CGP) historic precipitation dataset version *** contains observations at 31 thousand stations with 1.87 x 107 data records,among which 4152 time series of precipitation are longer than 100 *** dataset plays a critical role in climate research due to its advantages in large data volume and high density of station network,compared to other *** the Penalized Maximal

关键词： global precipitation observation historic data

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A Preliminary Study on the global Land Annual precipitation Associated with ENSO during 1948-2000

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2002年第6期19卷 993-1003页

作者：施能陈绿文夏冬冬 Nanjing Institute of Meteorology 210044 Nanjing

The global land monthly precipitation data (PREC / L) are used to investigate the relation between the global land annual precipitation and ENSO during 1948-2000, and the results of composite analysis are tested with Monte Carlo simulations. Results indicate that the global land annual precipitation was significantly reduced in large scale areas in warm event years; the areas were the equatorial West Pacific, North China; equatorial Central America; North Bengal Bay and Nepal; East Australia; West India and South Pakistan; the district east of the Lena River; West Europe; and Wilkes Land of Antarctica. In contrast to this, the areas where precipitation increased in warm event years were less, and mainly in Chile and Argentina of South America; Somali, Kenya, and Tanzania of East Africa; Turkey, Iraq, and Iran of the Middle East; Libya and Nigeria of North Africa; Namibia of Southwest Africa; and Botswana and Zimbabwe of southern Africa. Statistical tests show that in warm event years, the area where the land annual precipitation was reduced was larger than the area where the annual precipitation increased, and the reduction in precipitation was more significant than the increase. The results in this paper are compared with previous studies. It is also pointed out that the interdecadal change of ENSO had no significant effect on the interdecadal variation of precipitation in the above regions. However, the warm events of El Nino affected the droughts in East Australia and North China more after the 1980s than before.

关键词： global precipitation ENSO global drought flood interdecadal change

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