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Chinese Medical Journal 2024年第3期137卷 294-302页

作者： Jianyang Feng Rongjin Lin Haoxian Li Jiayan Wang Hong He Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Major Obstetric Diseasethe Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityGuangzhouGuangdong 510000China Department of Fetal Medicine and Prenatal Diagnosis the Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityGuangzhouGuangdong 510000China

Background:The disease burdens for endometrial cancer(EC)vary across different countries and geographical regions and change every year.Herein,we reported the updated results of the global burden of disease Study 2019 on EC with respect to age-standardized incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019.Methods:The annual percentage change(APC)of incidence and mortality was evaluated using joinpoint regression analysis to examine the temporal trends during the same timeframe in terms of the global landscape,different sociodemographic indices(SDI),and geographic regions.The relationship between Human Development Index(HDI)and incidence and mortality was additionally explored.Results:The age-standardized incidence rates(ASIRs)revealed a significant average global elevation by 0.5%per year(95%confidence interval[CI],0.3–0.7;Pburden in different geographical areas.

关键词： Endometrial cancer global burden of disease Incidence Mortality Trends

burden of epilepsy in China and its provinces,1990 to 2019:findings from the global burden of disease Study 2019

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Chinese Medical Journal 2023年第3期136卷 305-312页

作者： Wei Liu Yangyang Xu Yicong Lin Lijun Wang Maigeng Zhou Peng Yin Guoguang Zhao National Center for Chronic and Non-Communicable disease Control and Prevention Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 100050China Department of Neurology Xuanwu HospitalCapital Medical UniversityNational Center for Neurological DisordersBeijing 100053China Department of Neurosurgery Xuanwu HospitalCapital Medical UniversityNational Center for Neurological DisordersBeijing 100053China

Background: Epilepsy accounts for a significant portion of the global disease burden. However, little is known about the disease burden of epilepsy in China and its provinces. Methods: We assessed the burden of epilepsy in China and its provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions from 1990 to 2019. burden was measured as incidence, prevalence, deaths, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by age, sex, year, and province. We used the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) to determine the association between the provincial development level and age-standardized DALY rates of epilepsy from 1990 to 2019. Results: In 2019, epilepsy caused 1367.51 thousand (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 979.92–1837.61 thousand) DALYs, and the age-standardized DALY rate was 99.77 (95% UI: 71.33–133.52)/100,000. The age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates for epilepsy in China were 24.65/100,000 and 219.69/100,000, increased by 45.00% (95% UI: 8.03–98.74%) and 35.72% (95% UI: 0.47–86.19%) compared with that in 1990, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the proportion of DALY caused by epilepsy in the age group under 25 years steadily decreased. The proportion of DALYs caused by epilepsy in people aged 50 years and over increased from 9.45% and 10.22% in 1990 to 29.01% and 32.72% for male and female individuals in 2019, respectively. The highest age-standardized mortality rates were seen in Tibet (4.26 [95% UI: 1.43–5.66]/100,000), Qinghai (1.80 [95% UI: 1.15–2.36]/100,000), and Yunnan (1.30 [95% UI: 0.88–1.62]/100,000), and the lowest mortality rates were in Guangdong (0.48 [95% UI: 0.39–0.64]/100,000), Zhejiang (0.56 [95% UI: 0.44–0.70]/100,000), and Shanghai (0.57 [95% UI: 0.41–0.73]/100,000). The age-standardized DALY rates across the country and in provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions generally decreased as their SDI increased. Conclusions: The disease burden of epilepsy is still heavy in China, especially in the western provinces. The incidence and prevalence of

关键词： Aged Epilepsy global burden of disease Quality-adjusted life years Disability-adjusted life years Incidence Prevalence China

Comparison of time trends in the incidence of primary liver cancer between China and the United States: an age-period-cohort analysis of the global burden of disease 2019

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Chinese Medical Journal 2022年第17期135卷 2035-2042页

作者： Zhiyong Zou Zuofeng Zhang Ce Lu Hui Wang Iinstitute of Child and Adolescent Health School of Public HealthPeking University Health Science CenterBeijing 100191China Department of Epidemiology Fielding School of Public HealthUniversity of CaliforniaLos AngelesCAUSA Department of Epidemiology School of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjngJjiangsu 21161China Department of Maternal and Child Health School of Public HealthPeking University Health Science CenterBeijing 100191China

Background::China and the United States(US)ranked first and third in terms of new liver cancer cases and deaths globally in 2020.Therefore,a comprehensive assessment of trends in the incidence of primary liver cancer with four major etiological factors between China and the US during the past 30 years with age-period-cohort(APC)analyses is warranted.Methods::Data were obtained from the global burden of disease 2019,and period/cohort relative risks were estimated by APC modeling from 1990 to 2019.Results::In 2019,there were 211,000 new liver cancer cases in China and 28,000 in the US,accounting for 39.4%and 5.2%of global liver cancer cases,respectively.For China,the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)consecutively decreased before 2005 but increased slightly since then,whereas the ASIR continuously increased in the US.Among the four etiological factors of liver cancer,the fastest reduction in incidence was observed in hepatitis B virus-related liver cancer among Chinese women,and the fastest increase was in nonalcoholic steatosis hepatitis(NASH)-related liver cancer among American men.The greatest reduction in the incidence of liver cancer was observed at the age of 53 years in Chinese men(-5.2%/year)and 33 years in Chinese women(-6.6%/year),while it peaked at 58 years old in both American men and women(4.5%/year vs.2.8%/year).Furthermore,the period risks of alcohol-and NASH-related liver cancer among Chinese men have been elevated since 2013.Simultaneously,leveled-off period risks were observed in hepatitis C viral-related liver cancer in both American men and women.Conclusions::Currently,both viral and lifestyle factors have been and will continue to play an important role in the time trends of liver cancer in both countries.More tailored and efficient preventive strategies should be designed to target both viral and lifestyle factors to prevent and control liver cancer.

关键词： Alcohol use-related liver cancer China global burden of disease Hepatitis Hepatitis B virus Hepatitis C Incidence Liver neoplasms Life Style Middle aged Non-alcoholic fatty liverdisease United States

Trends in mortality of liver disease due to hepatitis B in China from 1990 to 2019: findings from the global burden of disease Study

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Chinese Medical Journal 2022年第17期135卷 2049-2055页

作者： Guiying Cao Jue Liu Min Liu Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public HealthPeking UniversityBejing 100191China

Background::Hepatitis B is a viral infection that attacks the liver and can cause both potentially life-threatening acute and chronic liver disease.China has the world’s largest burden of hepatitis B and is considered to be a major contributor toward the goal of World Health Organization(WHO)of eliminating hepatitis B virus(HBV)as a global health threat by 2030.This study aimed to analyze data from the global burden of diseases,Injuries,and Risk Factors Study(GBD)to determine the trends in mortality of liver disease due to hepatitis B in China between 1990 and 2019 and the gap with the WHO’s goal.Methods::Annual deaths and age-standardized mortality rates(ASMRs)of liver disease due to hepatitis B in China between 1990 and 2019 were collected from GBD 2019.We calculated the percentage changes in deaths and estimated annual percentage changes(EAPCs)of ASMRs of liver disease due to hepatitis B.Results::In China,deaths of total liver disease due to hepatitis B decreased by 29.13%from 229 thousand in 2016 to 162 thousand in 2019,and ASMR decreased by an average of 4.92%(95%confidence interval[CI]:4.45–5.39%)per year in this period.For the spectrum of liver disease due to hepatitis B,deaths decreased by 74.83%,34.71%,and 23.34%for acute hepatitis,cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases,and liver cancer from 1990 to 2019,respectively,and ASMRs of acute hepatitis(EAPC=–7.63;95%CI:–8.25,–7.00),cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases(EAPC=–4.15;95%CI:–4.66,–3.65),and liver cancer(EAPC=–5.17;95%CI:–6.00,–4.33)decreased between 1990 and 2019.The proportions of older adults aged≥70 years among all deaths of the spectrum of liver disease due to hepatitis B increased from 1990 to 2019.Deaths of liver cancer due to hepatitis B increased by 7.05%from 2015 to 2019.Conclusions::Although a favorable trend in the mortality of liver disease due to hepatitis B was observed between 1990 and 2019,China still faces challenges in achieving the WHO’s goal of eliminating HBV as a public threat by 2030.Therefore,efforts to increase the

关键词： Hepatitis B Acute hepatitis B Chronic liver disease Liver cirrhosis Liver neoplasms global burden of disease global Health China

Changing profiles of cardiovascular disease and risk factors in China:a secondary analysis for the global burden of disease Study 2019

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Chinese Medical Journal 2023年第20期136卷 2431-2441页

作者： Huan Wang Hao Zhang Zhiyong Zou Institute of Child and Adolescent Health School of Public HealthPeking UniversityNational Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive HealthBeijing 100191China Heart Center and Shanghai Institute of Pediatric Congenital Heart disease Shanghai Children’s Medical CenterNational Children’s Medical CenterShanghai Jiaotong University School of MedicineShanghai 200127China

Background:Understanding the changing profiles of cardiovascular disease(CVD)and modifiable risk factors is essential for CVD prevention and control.We aimed to report the comprehensive trends in CVD and risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019.Methods:Data on the incidence,death,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)of total CVD and its 11 subtypes for China were obtained from the global burden of disease Study 2019.The CVD burden attributable to 12 risk factors was also retrieved.A secondary analysis was conducted to summarize the leading causes of CVD burden and attributable risk factors.Results:From 1990 to 2019,the number of CVD incidence,death,and DALYs considerably increased by 132.8%,89.1%,and 52.6%,respectively.Stroke,ischemic heart disease,and hypertensive heart disease accounted for over 95.0%of CVD deaths in 2019 and remained the top three causes during the past 30 years.Between 1990 and 2019,the age-standardized rate of stroke decreased significantly(percentage of decreased incidence:-9.3%;death:-39.8%;DALYs:-41.6%),while the rate of ischemic heart disease increased(percentage of increased incidence:11.5%;death:17.6%;DALYs:2.2%).High systolic blood pressure,unhealthy diet,tobacco,and air pollution continued to be the major contributors to CVD deaths and DALYs(attributing to over 70%of the CVD burden),and the high body mass index(BMI)-associated CVD burden had the largest increase between 1990 and 2019.Conclusions:The significant increases in the number of CVD incident cases,deaths,and DALYs suggest that the CVD burden is still a concern.Intensified strategies and policies are needed to maintain promising progress in stroke and to reduce the escalating burden of ischemic heart disease.The CVD burden attributable to risk factors has not yet made adequate achievements;even worse,high BMI has contributed to the increasing CVD burden.

关键词： Cardiovascular disease Stroke Ischemic heart disease Risk factors global burden of disease Hypertensive heart disease

burden of multiple myeloma in China:an analysis of the global burden of disease,Injuries,and Risk Factors Study 2019

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Chinese Medical Journal 2023年第23期136卷 2834-2838页

作者： Jiangmei Liu Weiping Liu Lan Mi Cai Cai Tiejun Gong Jun Ma Lijun Wang Department of Vital Statistics and Death Surveillance National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable disease Control and Prevention Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 100050China Department of Lymphoma Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research(Ministry of Education)Peking University Cancer Hospital and InstituteBeijing 100142China Strategic Development Department Beijing Institute of Survey and MappingBeijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Urban Spatial Information EngineeringBeijing 100038China Department of Hematology&Oncology Harbin Institute of Hematology and OncologyHarbinHeilongjiang 150010China

Background:There is limited data to comprehensively evaluate the epidemiological characteristics of multiple myeloma(MM)in China;therefore,this study determined the characteristics of the disease burden of MM at national and provincial levels in China.Methods:The burden of MM,including incidence,mortality,prevalence,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs),with a 95%uncertainty interval(UI),was determined in China following the general analytical strategy used in the global burden of disease,Injuries,and Risk Factors Study 2019.The trends in the burden of MM from 1990 to 2019 were also evaluated.Results:There were an estimated 347.45 thousand DALYs with an age-standardized DALY rate of 17.05(95%UI,12.31-20.77)per 100,000 in 2019.The estimated number of incident case and deaths of MM were 18,793 and 13,421,with age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of 0.93(95%UI,0.67-1.15)and 0.67(95%UI,0.50-0.82)per 100,000,respectively.The age-specific DALY rates per 100,000 increased to more than 10.00 in the 40 to 44 years age group reaching a peak(93.82)in the 70 to 74 years age group.Males had a higher burden than females,with approximately 1.5-to 2.0-fold sex difference in age-specific DALY rates in all age groups.From 1990 to 2019,the DALYs of MM increased 134%,from 148,479 in 1990 to 347,453 in 2019.Conclusion:The burden of MM has doubled over the last three decades,which highlights the need to establish effective disease prevention and control strategies at both the national and provincial levels.

关键词： Multiple myeloma global burden of disease Incidence Mortality Prevalence Quality-adjusted life years Risk factors China

global trends and regional differences in non-transport unintentional injuries mortality among children and adolescents, 1990 to 2019: results from the global burden of disease 2019 study

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Chinese Medical Journal 2022年第17期135卷 2056-2065页

作者： Yunfei Liu Yanhui Dong Xiaojin Yan Ning Ma Jiajia Dang Jingshu Zhang Panliang Zhong Luo Li Zhiyong Zou Yi Song Jun Ma Institute of Child and Adolescent Health School of Public HealthPeking UniversityBeijing 100191China The University of Melbourne Melbourne School of Population and Global HealthParkvileVIC 3010Australia

Background::Non-transport unintentional injuries(NTUIs)are major public concerns,especially among children and adolescents in low-and middle-income countries.With environmental and cognitive changes,a recent systematic description of global trends and regional differences concerning NTUIs is urgently needed for the global agenda of relevant policy-making and intervention target findings.Methods::We used mortality,population,and socio-demographic-index(SDI)data from global burden of disease 2019 to analyze the trends of NTUIs mortality.We applied the slope index of inequality(SII)and relative index of inequality(RII)to measure the absolute and relative inequality between countries and territories.The concentration curve and concentration index(CI)were also used to measure the inequality.We conducted a sensitivity analysis to make our findings credible.Results::In 2019,there were 205,000 deaths due to NTUIs among children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years,which decreased from 375,000 in 1990.In 2019,the age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)was 8.13 per 100,000,ranging from the lowest in the Netherlands(0.90 per 100,000)to the highest in the Solomon Islands(29.34 per 100,000).The low-middle SDI group had the highest ASMR of NTUIs,while the low SDI group had the slowest decrease.After excluding the death caused by"exposure to forces of nature"and"other unintentional injuries",drowning accounted for the most deaths in almost every SDI group,gender,and age group,but the major causes of death varied in different subgroups.For example,animal contact was a major cause in low and low-middle SDI groups but less in high SDI groups,while high and high-middle SDI groups had a higher proportion of deaths for foreign body and poisonings.The SII showed a declining trend,but the RII and CI did not,which might indicate that inequality was persistent.Similar results were found in the sensitivity analysis.Conclusions::Despite the declining trend of the mortality rate and the narrowing gap between countries,there were still a large n

关键词： Children and adolescents Non-transport unintentional injuries Socio-demographic-index Inequality analysis Foreign body Poisoning global burden of disease Cause of death Developing countries Drowning

Physical activity and cancer risk:a dose-response analysis for the global burden of disease Study 2019

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Cancer Communications 2023年第11期43卷 1229-1243页

作者： Xiayao Diao Yudong Ling Yi Zeng Yueqian Wu Chao Guo Yukai Jin Xiaojiang Chen Shoucheng Feng Jianrong Guo Chao Ding Feiyu Diao Zhicheng Du Shanqing Li Haibo Qiu Department of Thoracic Surgery Peking Union Medical College HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingP. R. China Department of Gastric Surgery Sun Yat-sen University Cancer CenterGuangzhouGuangdongP. R. China Department of Medical Statistics School of Public HealthSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhouGuangdongP. R. China Department of General Surgery Sun Yat-sen Memorial HospitalSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhouGuangdongP. R. China

Objective Adopting a healthy lifestyle,including regular physical activity,is widely believed to decrease cancer risk.This study aimed to quantitatively establish the dose-response relationships between total physical activity and the risk of breast,colon,lung,gastric,and liver cancers.Methods A systematic review and dose-response analysis were conducted using PubMed and Embase from January 1,1980 to March 20,2023.Prospective cohort studies that examined the association between physical activity and the risks of any of the 5 outcomes were included.The search was confined to publications in the English language with a specific focus on human studies.Physical activity is standardized by using the data from US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys(NHANES)and the global burden of disease 2019 database.Results A total of 98 studies,involving a combined population of 16,418,361 individuals,were included in the analysis.Among the included studies,57 focused on breast cancer,17 on lung cancer,23 on colon cancer,5 on gastric cancer,and 7 on liver cancer.Overall,elevated levels of physical activity exhibited an inverse correlation with the risk of cancer.The dose-response curve for lung cancer exhibited a non-linear pattern,with the greatest benefit risk reduction observed at 13,200 MET-minutes/week of physical activity,resulting in a 14.7%reduction in risk(relative risk 0.853,uncertainty interval 0.798 to 0.912)compared to the inactive population.In contrast,the dose-response curves for colon,gastric,breast,and liver cancers showed linear associations,indicating that heightened levels of total physical activity were consistently associated with reduced cancer risks.However,the increase in physical activity yielded a smaller risk reduction for colon and gastric cancers compared to breast and liver cancers.Compared to individuals with insufficient activity(total activity level<600 MET-minutes/week),individuals with high levels of activity(≥8,000 MET-minutes/week)experienced a 10.3%(0.897,0.860 to 0.934)risk redu

关键词： cancer risk dose-response analysis global burden of disease physical activity

global burden of inflammatory bowel disease 1990-2019:A systematic examination of the disease burden and twenty-year forecast

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2023年第42期29卷 5751-5767页

作者： Cheng-Jun Li Yi-Kai Wang Shun-Ming Zhang Mu-Dan Ren Shui-Xiang He Department of Gastroenterology The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an 710061Shaanxi ProvinceChina Department of Infectious diseases The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an 710004Shaanxi ProvinceChina School of Public Health Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science CenterXi’an 710061Shaanxi ProvinceChina

BACKGROUND Inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)is an idiopathic intestinal disease with various levels and trends in different countries and regions.Understanding the current burden and trends of IBD in various geographical locations is essential to establish effective strategies for prevention and treatment.We report the average annual percentage change(AAPC)and estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)in age-standardized rates(ASR)of IBD in different regions based on the global burden of disease(GBD)study from 1990-2019,and the relationships between IBD and the human development index(HDI)and socio-demographic index(SDI).The prevalence trends of IBD were predicted by gender from 2019-2039.AIM To comprehensively investigate IBD data,providing further insights into the management of this chronic disease.METHODS We collected the information on the incidence of IBD from the GBD study from 1990-2019 to calculate the AAPC and EAPC in ASR of IBD in different regions.The relationships between IBD,HDI,and SDI were analyzed.The Nordpred and Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict the prevalence trends of IBD by gender from 2019-2039,and the reliability of the results was validated.RESULTS North America consistently had the highest IBD ASR,while Oceania consistently had the lowest.East Asia had the fastest average annual growth in ASR(2.54%),whereas Central Europe had the fastest decline(1.38%).Countries with a low age-standardized incidence rates in 1990 showed faster growth in IBD while there was no significant correlation in 2019.Additionally,IBD increased faster in countries with a low age-standardized death rates in 1990,whereas the opposite was true in 2019.Analysis of SDI and IBD ASR showed that countries with a high SDI generally had a higher IBD ASR.Finally,the projections showed a declining trend in the incidence of IBD from 2019-2039,but a gradual increase in the number of cases.CONCLUSION As the global population increases and ages,early monitoring and prevention of IBD is important to reduce the dise

关键词： Inflammatory bowel disease Incidence Average annual percentage change Age-standardized rates Prevalence trends global burden of disease

global burden of disease, Injury and Risk Factor Study 2010: Its Policy Implications for China

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Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2014年第1期27卷 45-48页

作者： YU Shi Cheng TAN Feng ZHOU Mai Geng LIU Shi Wei ZHU Xiao Jun ZHU Yu Ling Chinese Center for disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) National Institute for Occupational Health and Poison Control China CDC National Center for Non-communicable Chronic disease Control China CDC

Results of the global burden of disease, Injury and Risk Factor Study 2010 （GBD 2010） were released on December 13, 2012 in London, a series of papers concerning the project have been published in the Lancet[1]. Research findings of the project have been reported in the United States, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, China[2] and Australia, and widely applied across the world. In addition, the GBD 2010 will see more countries report their project research findings and implement these findings in the near future. The GBD 2010 provides researchers, administrators and policymakers with new and critical sources for their research, teaching and policymaking.

关键词： 2010 global burden of disease Its Policy Implications for China