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Modeling of the overwintering distribution of Puccinia striiformis *** based on meteorological data from 2001 to 2012 in China

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Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering 2014年第3期1卷 223-235页

作者： Xiaojing WANG Zhanhong MA Yuying JIANG Shouding SHI Wancai LIU Juan ZENG Zhiwei ZHAO Haiguang WANG College of Agriculture and Biotechnology China Agricultural UniversityBeijing 100193China National Agro-Tech Extension and Service Center Ministry of AgricultureBeijing 100125China China Animal Agriculture Association Beijing 100028China

Wheat stripe rust caused by Puccinia striiformis *** occurs widely in China and seriously affects wheat *** warming could profoundly impact the incidence and prevalence of lowtemperature diseases such as stripe *** on the effects of temperature on the distribution of overwintering stripe rust could help us understand the incidence and prevalence of the disease and could also provide support for monitoring,forecasting and developing control *** exponential model and a spherical model of the ordinary Kriging method in the ArcGIS platform were used to predict the overwintering regions of stripe rust based on the probability that the average temperature of the coldest month from December to February was higher than–6 or–7°C from 2001 to *** results showed that the areas with a probability between 70%and 90%were transition regions for the overwintering of stripe *** on annual mean temperature of the coldest month from December to February for 2001 to 2012,overwintering distribution of stripe rust was likewise *** boundary for overwintering of stripe rust was consistent with the areas where the probability was predicted to be 70%to 90%for the overwintering distribution of stripe rust,but the boundary was shifted northward toward Beijing in North *** areas in Xinjiang,including Akto,Pishan,Hotan and Yutian,were also predicted to be suitable for the overwintering of stripe rust.

关键词： stripe rust wheat overwintering geospatial distribution geographic information system climate change

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