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Tropical Cyclone genesis potential index over the Western North Pacific Simulated by CMIP5 Models

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第11期32卷 1539-1550页

作者： SONG Yajuan WANG Lei LEI Xiaoyan WANG Xidong College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography Ocean University of China First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Marine Environment Information Technology State Oceanic Administration

Tropical cyclone （TC） genesis over the western North Pacific （WNP） is analyzed using 23 CMIP5 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5） models and reanalysis datasets. The models are evaluated according to TC genesis potential index （GPI）. The spatial and temporal variations of the GPI are first calculated using three atmospheric reanalysis datasets （ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis- 1, and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2）. Spatial distributions of July-October-mean TC frequency based on the GPI from ERA-interim are more consistent with observed ones derived from IBTrACS global TC data. So, the ERA-interim reanalysis dataset is used to examine the CMIP5 models in terms of reproducing GPI during the period 1982-2005. Although most models possess deficiencies in reproducing the spatial distribution of the GPI, their multi- model ensemble （MME） mean shows a reasonable climatological GPI pattern characterized by a high GPI zone along 20°N in the WNP. There was an upward trend of TC genesis frequency during 1982 to 1998, followed by a downward trend. Both MME results and reanalysis data can represent a robust increasing trend during 1982-1998, but the models cannot simulate the downward trend after 2000. Analysis based on future projection experiments shows that the GPI exhibits no significant change in the first half of the 21st century, and then starts to decrease at the end of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway （RCP） 2.6 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the GPI shows an increasing trend in the vicinity of 20°N, indicating more TCs could possibly be expected over the WNP under future global warming.

关键词： tropical cyclone genesis potential index CMIP5 western North Pacific global warming.

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Diagnosis of the ENSO modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the southern South China Sea using a genesis potential index

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2012年第5期31卷 54-68页

作者： WANG Lei ZHANG Qiongwan LI Weibiao State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environmental Dynamics Second Institute of OceanographyState Oceanic AdministrationHangzhou 310012China Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Environmental Science and EngineeringSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510058China

The modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the southern South China Sea （SSCS） by the El Nin o- Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is examined in October–December （OND）, when tropical cyclone （TC） activities are most active in this region. The results reveal that there were more TCs formed over the SSCS during La Nin a years and less TCs during El Nin o years. How different environmental factors （including low-level vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, vertical wind shear, and potential intensity） contribute to this influence is investigated, using a genesis potential （GP） index developed by Emanuel and Nolan. Composite anomalies of the GP index are produced for El Nin o and La Nin a years separately, which could account for the changes of TC frequency over the SSCS in different ENSO phases. The degree of contribution by each factor is determined quantitatively by producing composites of modified indices in which only one of the contributing factors varies, with the others set to climatology. The results show that the mid-level relative humidity makes the largest contribution to the ENSO modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the SSCS. Although warmer sea surface temperatures （SSTs） and larger amount of evaporation from the ocean surface were observed over the SSCS during El Nin o years, anomalous descending motions due to the anomalous Walker circulations inhibited the upward transports of water vapor and led to less moisture contents in the middle troposphere, which suppressed TC formations.

关键词： tropical cyclone southern South China Sea ENSO genesis potential index

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Changes in the Tropical Cyclone genesis potential index over the Western North Pacific in the SRES A2 Scenario

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2010年第6期27卷 1246-1258页

作者：张颖王会军孙建奇 Helge DRANGE Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science Department of Geophysics University of Bergen

The Tropical Cyclone genesis potential index （GPI） was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific （WNP）. The outputs of 20th century climate simulation by eighteen GCMs were used to evaluate the models＇ ability to reproduce tropical cyclone genesis via the GPI. The GCMs were found in general to reasonably reproduce the observed spatial distribution of genesis. Some of the models also showed ability in capturing observed temporal variation. Based on the evaluation, the models （CGCM3.1-T47 and IPSL-CM4） found to perform best when reproducing both spatial and temporal features were chosen to project future GPI. Results show that both of these models project an upward trend of the GPI under the SRES A2 scenario, however the rate of increase differs between them.

关键词： genesis potential index tropical cyclone western North Pacific global warming SRES A2

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Climatological and Seasonal Variations of the Tropical Cyclone genesis potential index Based on Oceanic Parameters in the Global Ocean

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2021年第6期20卷 1307-1315页

作者： PAN Lixia WANG Xin ZHOU Lei WANG Chunzai State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China Innovation Academy of South China Sea Ecology and Environmental Engineering Chinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Guangzhou) Guangzhou 511458China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China School of Oceanography Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghai 200030China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China

This study investigates the global performance of the tropical cyclone(TC)genesis potential index based on oceanic parameters(GPI_(ocean))proposed by Zhang et al.(2016).In six major TC formation basins,GPI_(ocean)can represent the seasonal variations of TC genesis over most basins,except for the North Indian Ocean(NIO).The monthly climatological GPI_(ocean)shows only a single peak in the NIO,which cannot describe the bimodal pattern of the annual cycle of TC genesis.To determine the cause of the poor performance of GPI_(ocean)in the NIO,the relative contributions of different parameters related to GPI_(ocean)are calculated and compared with those related to the genesis potential index developed by Emanuel and Nolan(2004)(GPI04).Results show that the net longwave radiation on the sea surface is responsible for the single peak of TC genesis in the NIO in boreal summer.Compared with GPI04,vertical wind shear is not involved in GPI_(ocean).Vertical wind shear is the dominant factor inhibiting TC genesis in the NIO in boreal summer.Therefore,the absence of vertical wind shear in GPI_(ocean)results in the failure of the annual cycle of TC genesis in the NIO.

关键词： North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis potential index

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Tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2022年第5期41卷 64-77页

作者： Cong Gao Lei Zhou School of Oceanography Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghai200030China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai519082China

Threatening millions of people and causing billions of dollars in losses,tropical cyclones(TCs)are among the most severe natural hazards in the world,especially over the western North Pacific.However,the response of TCs to a warming or changing climate has been the subject of considerable research,often with conflicting results.In this study,the abilities of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP)Phase 6(CMIP6)models to simulate TC genesis are assessed through historical simulations.The results indicate that a systematic humidity bias persists in most CMIP6 models from corresponding CMIP Phase 5 models,which leads to an overestimation of climatological TC genesis.However,the annual cycle of TC genesis is well captured by CMIP6 models.The abilities of 25 models to simulate the geographical patterns of TC genesis vary significantly.In addition,seven models are identified as well simulated models,but seven models are identified as poorly simulated ones.A comparison of the environmental variables for TC genesis in the well-simulated group and the poorly simulated group identifies moisture in the mid-troposphere as a key factor in the realistic simulation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)impacts on TC genesis.In contrast with the observations,the poorly simulated group does not reproduce the suppressing effect of negative moisture anomalies on TC genesis in the northwestern region(20°–30°N,120°–145°E)during El Niño years.Given the interaction between TC and ENSO,these results provide a guidance for future TC projections under climate change by CMIP6 models.

关键词： CMIP6 tropical cyclone genesis potential index relative humidity

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What Controls Early or Late Onset of Tropical North Atlantic Hurricane Season？

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2016年第3期30卷 298-311页

作者：左恒李天明刘佳 PENG Melinda Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science & TechnologyNanjing 210044China International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHawaii 96822USA Naval Research Laboratory MontereyCalifornia 93943USA

The occurrence of first hurricane in early summer signifies the onset of an active Atlantic hurricane season.The interannual variation of this hurricane onset date is examined for the period 1979-2013.It is found that the onset date has a marked interannual variation.The standard deviation of the interannual variation of the onset day is 17.5 days,with the climatological mean onset happening on July 23.A diagnosis of tropical cyclone（TC） genesis potential index（GPI） indicates that the major difference between an early and a late onset group lies in the maximum potential intensity（MPI）.A further diagnosis of the MPI shows that it is primarily controlled by the local SST anomaly（SSTA）.Besides the SSTA,vertical shear and mid-tropospheric relative humidity anomalies also contribute significantly to the GPI difference between the early and late onset groups.It is found that the anomalous warm（cold） SST over the tropical Atlantic,while uncorrected with the Nino3 index,persists from the preceding winter to concurrent summer in the early（late） onset group.The net surface heat flux anomaly always tends to damp the SSTA,which suggests that ocean dynamics may play a role in maintaining the SSTA in the tropical Atlantic.The SSTA pattern with a maximum center in northeastern tropical Atlantic appears responsible for generating the observed wind and moisture anomalies over the main TC development region.A further study is needed to understand the initiation mechanism of the SSTA in the Atlantic.

关键词： onset of a hurricane season genesis potential index TC maximum potential intensity

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Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific by the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第12期33卷 1361-1375页

作者： Haikun ZHAO Chunzai WANG Ryuji YOSHIDA Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster/Pacific Typhoon Research Center/Earth System Modeling CenterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory MiamiFL33149USA RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science Kobe650-0047Japan

The quasi-biweekly oscillation （QBWO） is the second most dominant intraseasonal mode over the westem North Pacific （WNP） during boreal summer. In this study, the modulation of WNP tropical cyclogenesis （TCG） by the QBWO and its association with large-scale patterns are investigated. A strong modulation of WNP TCG events by the QBWO is found. More TCG events occur during the QBWO＇s convectively active phase. Based on the genesis potential index （GPI）, we further evaluate the role of environmental factors in affecting WNP TCG. The positive GPI anomalies associated with the QBWO correspond well with TCG counts and locations. A large positive GPI anomaly is spatially correlated with WNP TCG events during a life cycle of the QBWO. The low-level relative vorticity and mid-level relative humidity appear to be two dominant contributors to the QBWO-composited GPI anomalies during the QBWO＇s active phase, followed by the nonlinear and potential intensity terms. These positive contributions to the GPI anomalies are partly offset by the negative contribution from the vertical wind shear. During the QBWO＇s inactive phase, the mid-level relative humidity appears to be the largest contributor, while weak contributions are also made by the nonlinear and low-level relative vorticity terms. Meanwhile, these positive contributions are partly cancelled out by the negative contribution from the potential intensity. The contributions of these environmental factors to the GPI anomalies associated with the QBWO are similar in all five flow patterns--the monsoon shear line, monsoon confluence region, monsoon gyre, easterly wave, and Rossby wave energy dispersion associated with a preexisting TC. Further analyses show that the QBWO strongly modulates the synoptic-scale wave trains （SSWs） over the WNP, with larger amplitude SSWs during the QBWO＇s active phase. This implies a possible enhanced （weakened） relationship between TCG and SSWs during the active （inactive） phase. This study improves our understanding of the modulation of WNP TCG b

关键词： tropical cyclogenesis quasi-biweekly oscillation genesis potential index large-scale patterns western NorthPacific

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