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Constrained future brightening of solar radiation and its implication for China's solar power

National Science Review 2023年第1期10卷 154-165页

作者： Yanyi He Kun Yang Martin Wild Kaicun Wang Dan Tong Changkun Shao Tianjun Zhou Department of Earth System Science Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Institute for Global Change Studies Tsinghua University National Tibetan Plateau Data Center State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System and Resource Environment Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH Zürich Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

As Earth’s primary energy source,surface downward solar radiation(Rs) determines the solar power potential and usage for climate change mitigation.future projections of Rsbased on climate models have large uncertainties that interfere with the efficient deployment of solar energy to achieve China’ s carbon-neutrality goal.Here we assess 24 models in the latest Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 6 with historical observations in China and find systematic biases in simulating historical Rsvalues likely due to model biases in cloud cover and clear-sky radiation,resulting in largely uncertain projections for future changes in Based on emergent constraints,we obtain credible Rswith narrowed uncertainties by ～56% in the mid-twenty-first century and show that the mean Rschange during 2050-2069 relative to 1995-2014 is 30% more brightening than the raw projections.Particularly in North China and Southeast China with higher power demand,the constrained projections present more significant brightening,highlighting the importance of considering the spatial changes in future Rswhen locating new solar energy infrastructures.

关键词： surface downward solar radiation CMIP6 model emergent constraint future change solar energy

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