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Assessment of ECMWF’s Precipitation forecasting Performance for China from 2017 to 2022

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第3期30卷 257-274页

作者： PAN Liu-jie ZHANG Hong-fang LIANG Mian LIU Jia-huimin DAI Chang-ming Shaanxi Meteorological Observatory Xi’an 710014 China Key Laboratory of Eco-Environment and Meteorology for the Qinling Mountains and Loess Plateau Xi’an 710014 China Shaanxi Meteorological Service Centre Xi’an 710014 China

This study used the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)three-source fusion gridded precipitation analysis data as a reference to evaluate the precipitation forecast performance of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)model for China from 2017 to *** main conclusions are as *** precipitation forecast capability of the ECMWF model for China has gradually improved from 2017 to *** scores such as bias,equitable threat score(ETS),and Fractions Skill Score(FSS)showed improvements for different categories of *** bias of light rain forecasts overall adjusted towards smaller values,and the increase in forecast scores was greater in the warm season than in the cold *** ETS for torrential rain more intense categories significantly increased,although there were large fluctuations in bias across different *** model exhibited higher precipitation bias in most areas of North China,indicating overprediction,while it showed lower bias in South China,indicating *** ETSs indicate that the model performed better in forecasting precipitation in the northeastern part of China without the influence of climatic background *** of the differences between the first period and the second period of the forecast shows that the precipitation amplitude in the ECMWF forecast shifted from slight underestimation to overestimation compared to that of CMPAS05,reducing the likelihood of missing extreme precipitation *** improvement in ETS is mainly due to the reduction in bias and false alarm rates and,more importantly,an increase in the hit *** 2017 to 2022,the area coverage error of model precipitation forecast relative to observations showed a decreasing trend at different scales,while the FSS showed an increasing trend,with the highest FSS observed in *** ETS followed a parabolic trend with increasing neighborhood radius,with the better ETS neighborhood radius generally

关键词： ECMWF forecasting verification neighborhood verification FSS

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