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Growth and Interactions of Multi-Source Perturbations in Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第2期30卷 118-131页

作者：张璐闵锦忠庄潇然王世璋魏莉青 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044 China Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory Jiangsu Meteorological ServiceNanjing 210008 China Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing 210000 China

This study investigated the growth of forecast errors stemming from initial conditions(ICs),lateral boundary conditions(LBCs),and model(MO)perturbations,as well as their interactions,by conducting seven 36 h convectionallowing ensemble forecast(CAEF)*** cases,one with strong-forcing(SF)and the other with weak-forcing(WF),occurred over the Yangtze-Huai River basin(YHRB)in East China,were selected to examine the sources of uncertainties associated with perturbation growth under varying forcing backgrounds and the influence of these backgrounds on *** perturbations exhibited distinct characteristics in terms of temporal evolution,spatial propagation,and vertical distribution under different forcing backgrounds,indicating a dependence between perturbation growth and forcing background.A comparison of the perturbation growth in different precipitation areas revealed that IC and LBC perturbations were significantly influenced by the location of precipitation in the SF case,while MO perturbations were more responsive to convection triggering and dominated in the WF *** vertical distribution of perturbations showed that the sources of uncertainties and the performance of perturbations varied between SF and WF cases,with LBC perturbations displaying notable case ***,the interactions between perturbations were considered by exploring the added values of different source *** the SF case,the added values of IC,LBC,and MO perturbations were reflected in different forecast periods and different source uncertainties,suggesting that the combination of multi-source perturbations can yield positive *** the WF case,MO perturbations provided a more accurate estimation of uncertainties downstream of the Dabie Mountain and need to be prioritized in the research on perturbation development.

关键词： convection-allowing ensemble forecast forcing background perturbation growth interactions added value

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