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Long-term reconstruction of flash floods in the Qilian Mountains,China,based on dendrogeomorphic methods

Journal of Mountain Science 2022年第11期19卷 3163-3177页

作者： QIE Jia-zhi ZHANG Yong TRAPPMANN Daniel ZHONG Yi-hua BALLESTEROS-CÁNOVAS Juan Antonio FAVILLIER Adrien STOFFEL Markus Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Climate Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene(C-CIA) Institute for Environmental SciencesUniversity of GenevaGeneva CH-1205Switzerland Dendrolab.ch Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GenevaGeneva CH-1205Switzerland National Museum of Natural Sciences MNCN-CSICC/Serrano 115bis28006MadridSpain Department F.-A.Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences University of GenevaGeneva CH-1205Switzerland

In China,flash floods are one of the main natural disasters causing loss of life and damage to *** threat of flash floods is exacerbated with climate change and increased human activities,such that the number of disasters has shown a clear upward trend in recent ***,due to the scarcity of instrumental data or overly short timeseries,we are still lacking critical data to understand spatio-temporal patterns and driving factors of extreme flash *** missing knowledge is however crucial for a proper management of these hazards,especially in remote mountain *** forested catchments,dendrogeomorphology allows the reconstruction of past process activity based on growth disturbances(GDs)in trees that have been affected by past flash ***,in our study,for the first time,we reconstruct past flash floods in the Qilian Mountains,northeast Tibetan Plateau,over past *** this end,we sampled 99 Qinghai spruce(Picea crassifolia)trees affected by flash floods,with a total of 194increment cores,and identified 302 GDs induced by past flash *** GDs have been caused by at least 21 flash floods that we are able to reconstruct over the last 170 *** position of GDs within tree rings and the intra-seasonal dating of past events also allowed discussion of the likely synoptic situations that may have led to the triggering of flash floods in the *** regression analysis confirms that significant correlation exists between cumulative maximum 5-day August-September precipitation and reconstructed flash floods,which is corresponding to the majority of scars and related tangential rows of traumatic resin ducts(TRDs)found in the latewood portion of growth *** results support the idea that abundant precipitation occurring at the end of the summer season and early fall is the key factor driving flash floods in our study *** research not only fills the gaps regarding historical flash flood histories in

关键词： Tree ring Dendrogeomorphology flash floods Qinghai spruce Qilian Mountains

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Experimental Study of the Interaction between Building Clusters and flash floods

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Journal of Mountain Science 2015年第5期12卷 1334-1344页

作者： DU Jun HE Xiao-yan WANG Zhao-yin ZHANG Chen-di LI Wen-xin Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering Tsinghua University Gansu Coal Geological Exploration Institute

In recent years, flash flood disasters have occurred frequently in southwest China due to the increased frequency of extreme climate events. To solve this problem, great efforts have been made in studying the process of flash flood. However, little attention was paid on bearing body of hazard, the clusters of buildings. Thus the real disaster mechanism of flash flood remains ***, based on the experiments of artificial flash floods in a conceptual solid model, this paper focuses on the flood-impacted inundation characteristics of the building clusters at different locations of the gully model, in order to obtain a better understanding of the disaster process and the interaction between the flash floods and building clusters. The results showed that, in a typical smallscale flash flood gully with hot and dry climate, 1)clusters of buildings on an alluvial fan could reduce about 35% of the flooding area by blocking the diffusion of the flood to the depression areas, and could also promote the deposition in lower reaches of the river channel by blocking the overbank flow from going back into the channel, making the width-depth ratio of the channel larger. 2) The flash flood rates of disaster and hazard on the alluvial fan are generally higher than that of the inner gully. For the inner gully,buildings located on the beaches along the lower river and the transitional areas of the straight channel and channel bends can easily be affected because of their lower elevations. For the alluvial fan, buildings nearby the meanders suffer the greatest impacts because of bank collapsing and flooding. 3) The safe vertical distance from a building to the river channel is 13 m for the buildings in the inner gully under extreme floods. Below this threshold, the smaller the vertical distance is, the greater the risk exposure is. For the buildings on the alluvial fan, especially for the buildings near the concave bank of the top rush point,the horizontal distance is more

关键词： flash floods Building clusters Settlement's distribution Disaster process Fieldmodel experiment

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Exploring spatial relationships between stream channel features,water depths and flow velocities during flash floods using HEC-GeoRAS and Geographic Information Systems

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2022年第4期32卷 757-782页

作者： Miguel LEAL Eusébio REIS Pedro Pinto SANTOS Centre of Geographical Studies and Associated Laboratory TERRA Institute of Geography and Spatial PlanningUniversidade de Lisboa1600-276 LisbonPortugal Forest Research Centre and Associated Laboratory TERRA School of AgricultureUniversidade de LisboaTapada da Ajuda1349-017 LisbonPortugal

Water depths and flow velocities decisively influence the damage caused by flash *** Information System(GIS)is a powerful and useful tool,allowing the spatial analysis of results obtained by hydraulic modelling,namely from the HEC-RAS/HEC-GeoRAS *** GIS spatial analysis performed in this study seeks to explain and quantify the spatial relationships between the stream channel features and flow components during flash flood *** these relationships are generically known,there are few studies exploring this subject in different geographic contexts.A 1D hydraulic model was applied in a small watershed in Portugal,providing good results in the definition of floodable areas,water depths and longitudinal *** direct relationship was found between water depths and velocities in the floodable areas;however,negative strong correlations were found between the two flow components along the stream *** slope,channel and flood width,and roughness prove to be highly relevant on the longitudinal variations of water depths and velocities and on the location of maximum *** peak discharges and return periods(R;)can change the relationships between water depths and velocities at the same *** can be improved with more accurate elevation data for stream channels and floodplains.

关键词： flash floods water depth flow velocity geographic information systems(GIS) spatial analysis

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A Dynamic Early Warning Model for flash floods Based on Rainfall Pattern Identification

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2024年第5期15卷 769-788页

作者： Wenlin Yuan Bohui Jing Hongshi Xu Yanjie Tang Shuaihu Zhang Yellow River Laboratory School of Water Conservancy and Transport Zhengzhou University Henan Urban and Rural Planning Institute

flash floods are one of the most devastating natural hazards in mountainous and hilly areas. In this study, a dynamic warning model was proposed to improve the warning accuracy by addressing the problem of ignoring the randomness and uncertainty of rainfall patterns in flash flood warning. A dynamic identification method for rainfall patterns was proposed based on the similarity theory and characteristic rainfall patterns database. The characteristic rainfall patterns were constructed by k-means clustering of historical rainfall data. Subsequently, the dynamic flood early warning model was proposed based on the real-time correction of rainfall patterns and flooding simulation by the HEC-HMS(Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System) model. To verify the proposed model, three small watersheds in China were selected as case studies. The results show that the rainfall patterns identified by the proposed approach exhibit a high correlation with the observed rainfall. With the increase of measured rainfall information, the dynamic correction of the identified rainfall patterns results in corresponding flood forecasts with Nash-Sutcliff e efficiency(NSE) exceeding 0.8 at t = 4, t = 5, and t = 6, thereby improving the accuracy of flash flood warnings. Simultaneously, the proposed model extends the forecast lead time with high accuracy. For rainfall with a duration of six hours in the Xinxian watershed and eight hours in the Tengzhou watershed, the proposed model issues early warnings two hours and three hours before the end of the rainfall, respectively, with a warning accuracy of more than 0.90. The proposed model can provide technical support for flash flood management in mountainous and hilly watersheds.

关键词： China Dynamic early warning model flash floods HEC-HMS model Rainfall pattern identification

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Linear spectral unmixing algorithm for modelling suspended sediment concentration of flash floods,upper Tekeze River,Ethiopia

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International Journal of Sediment Research 2020年第1期35卷 79-90页

作者： Hagos G.Gebreslassie Assefa M.Melesse Kevin Bishop Azage G.Gebremariam Ethiopian Institute of Water Resources Addis Ababa University Department of NRM Adigrat University Department of Earth and Environment Florida International Universities Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment Swedish Universities of Agricultural Science

flash floods are the highest sediment transporting agent,but are inaccessible for in-situ sampling and have rarely been analyzed by remote sensing *** and field experiments were done to develop linear spectral unmixing(LSU) remote sensing model and evaluate its performance in simulating the suspended sediment concentration(SSC) in flash *** models were developed from continuous monitoring in the laboratory and the onsite spectral signature of river bed sediment deposits and flash floods in the Tekeze River and in its tributary,the Tsirare *** Pearson correlation coefficient was used to determine the variability of correlations between reflectance and *** coefficient of determination(R2) and root mean square of error(RMSE) were used to evaluate the performance of the generated *** results found that the Pearson correlation coefficient between SSCs and reflectance varied based on the level of the SSCs,geological colors,and grain *** performance of the LSU model and empirical remote sensing approaches were computed to be R2=0.92,and RMSE=±0.76 g/1 in the Tsirare River and R2=0.91,and RMSE=±0.73 g/1 in the Tekeze River and R2=0.81,RMSE=±2.65 g/l in the Tsirare river and R2=0.76,RMSE=±10.87 g/l in the Tekeze River,***,the LSU approach of remote sensing was found to be relatively accurate in monitoring and modeling the variability of SSCs that could be applied to the upper Tekeze River basin.

关键词： Empirical remote sensing flash floods Linear spectral unmixing Suspended sediment concentration Tekeze River

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Increasing flash floods in a Drying Climate over Southwest China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第8期35卷 198-203页

作者： Chan XIAO Peili WU Lixia ZHANG Robin T. CLARK National Climate Centre China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB UK Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

In a globally warming world, subtropical regions are generally expected to become drier while the tropics and mid-high latitudes become wetter. In line with this, Southwest China, close to 25°N, is expected to become increasingly prone to drought if annual mean precipitation decreases. However, despite this trend, changes in the temporal distribution of moisture supply might actually result in increased extreme rainfall in the region, whose climate is characterized by distinct dry and wet seasons. Using hourly and daily gauge observations, rainfall intensity changes since 1971 are exalnined for a network of 142 locations in the region. From the analysis, dry season changes are negligible but wet season changes exhibit a significantly strong downward trend [-2.4% （10 yr）^-1], particularly during the past 15 years [-17.7% （10 yr）^-1]. However, the intensity of events during the wettest of 5% hours appears to steadily increase during the whole period [1.4% （10 yr）^-1], tying in with government statistical reports of recent droughts and flooding. If the opposing trends are a consequence of a warming climate, it is reasonable to expect the contradictory trend to continue with an enhanced risk of flash flooding in coming decades in the region concerned.

关键词： regional water cycle flash floods drought Southwest China

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Hydrologic Time Scale:A Fundamental Stream Characteristic

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Journal of Earth Science 2022年第5期33卷 1291-1297页

作者： Robert E.Criss Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Washington University in St.LouisSt.LouisMO63130USA

A new,fundamental catchment attribute called the hydrologic time scaleτgoverns the rate of delivery of runoff to a particular site,and is equal to∫Qdt/∫|dQ|,where Q is discharge and t is *** value ofτfor any gauged site is readily calculated from tabulated discharge data by replacing the integrals with *** quantity,coupled with the square root of catchment area,√A,form a coordinate pair that embodies the characteristic time and length scales for any catchment,which govern its flow *** fitting constants used in several unit hydrograph models are simple multiples ofτ,so knowledge ofτallows rapid calibration of these models for the particular site,facilitating flow prediction from rainfall *** ofτreflect many different landscape attributes,but for multiple sub-basins in watersheds with homogeneous land use and lithologic conditions,they correlate linearly with √*** ratio √A/τprovides a characteristic velocity that is high for channelized,floodprone rivers,for flashy urban streams with high impervious cover,and for sites downstream of hydropower *** with low velocities are resistant to flooding,as their landscapes have a greater ability to delay the delivery of runoff by retention,detention,and infiltration into the groundwater system.

关键词： unit hydrograph time constant flash floods impervious cover urban streams flashiness hydrogeology

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Flood susceptibility modelling using advanced ensemble machine learning models

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Geoscience Frontiers 2021年第3期12卷 60-77页

作者： Abu Reza Md Towfiqul Islam Swapan Talukdar Susanta Mahato Sonali Kundu Kutub Uddin Eibek Quoc Bao Pham Alban Kuriqi Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh Department of Disaster Management Begum Rokeya UniversityRangpurBangladesh Department of Geography University of Gour BangaMaldaWest BengalIndia Environmental Quality Atmospheric Science and Climate Change Research GroupTon Duc Thang UniversityHo Chi Minh CityVietnam Faculty of Environment and Labour Safety Ton Duc Thang UniversityHo Chi Minh CityVietnam CERIS Instituto Superior TécnicoUniversidade de LisboaLisbonPortugal Institute of Research and Development Duy Tan UniversityDanang 550000Vietnam Faculty of Environmental and Chemical Engineering Duy Tan UniversityDanang 550000Vietnam

floods are one of nature's most destructive disasters because of the immense damage to land,buildings,and human *** is difficult to forecast the areas that are vulnerable to flash flooding due to the dynamic and complex nature of the flash ***,earlier identification of flash flood susceptible sites can be performed using advanced machine learning models for managing flood *** this study,we applied and assessed two new hybrid ensemble models,namely Dagging and Random Subspace(RS)coupled with Artificial Neural Network(ANN),Random Forest(RF),and Support Vector Machine(SVM)which are the other three state-of-the-art machine learning models for modelling flood susceptibility maps at the Teesta River basin,the northern region of *** application of these models includes twelve flood influencing factors with 413 current and former flooding points,which were transferred in a GIS *** information gain ratio,the multicollinearity diagnostics tests were employed to determine the association between the occurrences and flood influential *** the validation and the comparison of these models,for the ability to predict the statistical appraisal measures such as Freidman,Wilcoxon signed-rank,and t-paired tests and Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve(ROC)were *** value of the Area Under the Curve(AUC)of ROC was above 0.80 for all *** flood susceptibility modelling,the Dagging model performs superior,followed by RF,the ANN,the SVM,and the RS,then the several benchmark *** approach and solution-oriented outcomes outlined in this paper will assist state and local authorities as well as policy makers in reducing flood-related threats and will also assist in the implementation of effective mitigation strategies to mitigate future damage.

关键词： Flood hazard Flood vulnerability flash floods Debris flow Teesta River basin Bangladesh

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Energy-Efficient Scheduling for a Cognitive IoT-Based Early Warning System

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Computers, Materials & Continua 2022年第6期71卷 5061-5082页

作者： Saeed Ahmed Noor Gul Jahangir Khan Junsu Kim Su Min Kim Department of Electronics Engineering Korea Polytechnic UniversitySiheung15073Korea Mirpur University of Science and Technology Mirpur10250Pakistan Department of Electronics University of PeshawarPeshawar25120Pakistan Sarhad University of Science and Information Technology Peshawar25000Pakistan

flash floods are deemed the most fatal and disastrous natural hazards globally due to their prompt onset that requires a short prime time for emergency *** Internet of things(CIoT)technologies including inherent characteristics of cognitive radio(CR)are potential candidates to develop a monitoring and early warning system(MEWS)that helps in efficiently utilizing the short response time to save lives during flash ***,most CIoT devices are battery-limited and thus,it reduces the lifetime of the *** tackle these problems,we propose a CIoTbased MEWS to slash the fatalities of flash *** extend the lifetime of the MEWS by conserving the limited battery energy of CIoT sensors,we formulate a resource assignment problem for maximizing energy *** solve the problem,at first,we devise a polynomial-time heuristic energyefficient scheduler(EES-1).However,its performance can be unsatisfactory since it requires an exhaustive search to find local optimum values without consideration of the overall network energy *** enhance the energy efficiency of the proposed EES-1 scheme,we additionally formulate an optimization problem based on a maximum weight matching bipartite ***,we additionally propose a Hungarian algorithm-based energy-efficient scheduler(EES-2),solvable in polynomial *** simulation results show that the proposed EES-2 scheme achieves considerably high energy efficiency in the CIoT-based MEWS,leading to the extended lifetime of the MEWS without loss of throughput performance.

关键词： flash floods internet of things cognitive radio early warning system network lifetime energy efficiency

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GIS-based flash flooding susceptibility analysis and water management in arid mountain ranges:Safaga Region,Red Sea Mountains,Egypt

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Journal of Mountain Science 2023年第12期20卷 3665-3686页

作者： Ahmed E.EL-RAYES Mohamed O.ARNOUS Ahmed M.HELMY Geology Department Faculty of ScienceSuez Canal UniversityIsmailia 41522Egypt Geology Department Faculty of ScienceArish UniversityArish 45511 North SinaiEgypt

The Safaga Region(SR)is part of the Red Sea mountain range in *** flash flooding is now an inescapable event,wreaking havoc and causing massive loss of life and *** majority of the floodwater,however,has been wasted as runoff to the Red Sea,which,if used wisely,could meet a fraction of the water demands for a variety of applications in this *** current work aims to use GIS techniques to integrate remote sensing data for evaluating,mitigating,and managing flash floods in *** data set comprised Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM)thematic rainfall data,1:50,000 scale topographical map sheets,geological maps,the ASTER Digital Elevation Model(ASTER GDEM),Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper"(ETM7+),and Landsat 8 Operational Land *** flash flood risk model of SR is developed using ArcGIS-10.3 geoprocessing tools integrating all the causal factors thematic *** final flood risk model for the SR suggests that 57%of the total basins in the SR are at high risk of *** 38%of all basins are at moderate flood *** remaining 5%of basins are less prone to ***-prone zones were identified,suitable dam-building sites were located,and extremely probable areas for water recharge were *** the basis of reliable scientific data,structural and non-structural mitigation strategies that might reduce the damage susceptibility,alleviate the sensitivity of the flash flood,and best utilize its water supply were recommended.

关键词： flash floods GIS Susceptibility Water management Arid mountains Egypt

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