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Anthropogenic warming is a key climate indicator of rising urban fire activity in China

National Science Review 2024年第5期11卷 110-120页

作者： Qichao Yao Dabang Jiang Ben Zheng Xiaochun Wang Xiaolin Zhu Keyan Fang Lamei Shi Zhou Wang Yongli Wang Linhao Zhong Yanyan Pei Amy Hudson Shuai Xu Maowei Bai Xinyan Huang Valerie Trouet National Institute of Natural Hazards Ministry of Emergency Management of China Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management-Ministry of Education School of Forestry Northeast Forestry University Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research University of Arizona Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Department of Statistics Colorado State University Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Eco-Geographical Process (MOE) College of Geographic Sciences Fujian Normal University Department of Building Environment and Energy Engineering The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

China, one of the most populous countries in the world, has suffered the highest number of natural disaster-related deaths from fire. On local scales, the main causes of urban fires are anthropogenic in ***, on regional to national scales, little is known about the indicators of large-scale co-varying urban fire activity in China. Here, we present the China fire history Atlas(CFHA), which is based on 19 947documentary records and represents fires in urban areas of China over the twentieth century(1901–1994).We found that temperature variability is a key indicator of urban fire activity in China, with warmer temperatures being correlated with more urban fires, and that this fire–temperature relationship is seasonally and regionally explicit. In the early twentieth century, however, the fire–temperature relationship was overruled by war-related fires in large urban areas. We further used the fire–temperature relationship and multiple emissions scenarios to project fire activity across China into the twenty-first century. Our projections show a distinct increase in future urban fire activity and fire-related economic loss. Our findings provide insights into fire–climate relationships in China for densely-populated areas and on policy-relevant time scales and they contribute spatial coverage to efforts to improve global fire models.

关键词： fire–climate interactions global warming fire history network urban fires fire management

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