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Modeling fire ignition probability and frequency using Hurdle models: a crossregional study in Southern Europe

Ecological Processes 2020年第1期9卷 634-647页

作者： Marina D’Este Antonio Ganga Mario Elia Raffaella Lovreglio Vincenzo Giannico Giuseppina Spano Giuseppe Colangelo Raffaele Lafortezza Giovanni Sanesi Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences University of Bari A.MoroVia Amendola 165/A70126 BariItaly Department of Agriculture University of SassariViale Italia 3907100 SassariItaly Department of Geography The University of Hong KongCentennial CampusPokfulam RoadPok Fu LamHong Kong

Background:Wildfires play a key role in shaping Mediterranean landscapes and ecosystems and in impacting species *** studies have investigated the wildfire occurrences and the influence of their drivers in many countries of the Mediterranean ***,in this regard,no studies have attempted to compare different Mediterranean regions,which may appear similar under many *** response to this gap,climatic,topographic,anthropic,and landscape drivers were analyzed and compared to assess the patterns of fire ignition points in terms of fire occurrence and frequency in Catalonia(Spain),Sardinia,and Apulia(Italy).Therefore,the objectives of the study were to(1)assess fire ignition occurrence in terms of probability and frequency,(2)compare the main drivers affecting fire occurrence,and(3)produce fire probability and frequency maps for each ***:In pursuit of the above,the probability of fire ignition occurrence and frequency was mapped using Negative Binomial Hurdle models,while the models’performances were evaluated using several metrics(AUC,prediction accuracy,RMSE,and the Pearson correlation coefficient).The results showed an inverse correlation between distance from infrastructures(i.e.,urban roads and areas)and the occurrence of fires in all three study *** relationship became more significant when the frequency of fire ignition points was ***,a positive correlation was found between fire occurrence and landscape drivers according to *** land cover classes more significantly affected were forest,agriculture,and grassland for Catalonia,Sardinia,and Apulia,***:Compared to the climatic,topographic,and landscape drivers,anthropic activity significantly influences fire ignition and frequency in all three *** the distance from urban roads and areas decreases,the probability of fire ignition occurrence and frequency ***,it is essential to implement long-to medium-

关键词： Driving factor fire frequency fire management fire occurrence Hurdle models Mediterranean Basin Wildfires

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Climate and fire drivers of forest composition and openness in the Changbai Mountains since the Late Glacial

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Forest Ecosystems 2023年第4期10卷 448-458页

作者： Meng Meng Sandy P.Harrison Dongmei Jie Nannan Li Baojian Liu Dehui Li Guizai Gao Honghao Niu School of Geographical Sciences Northeast Normal UniversityChangchun130024China Geography&Environmental Science University of ReadingWhiteknightsReadingRG66AHUK Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires Environment and SocietyImperial College LondonSouth KensingtonLondonSW72BWUK Key Laboratory of Geographical Processes and Ecological Security in Changbai Mountains Ministry of EducationChangchun130024China Institute for Peat and Mire Research State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation RestorationNortheast Normal UniversityChangchun130024China Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology Ministry of EducationChangchun130024China HaiZhou Senior High School Lianyungang222023China College of Resources and Environment Hebei Normal UniversityShijiazhuang050010China School of Archaeology Jilin UniversityChangchun130015China

Ongoing climate changes have a direct impact on forest growth;they also affect natural fire regimes,with further implications for forest *** of how these will affect forests on decadal-to-centennial timescales is *** we use reconstructions of past vegetation,fire regimes and climate during the Holocene to examine the relative importance of changes in climate and fire regimes for the abundance of key tree species in northeastern *** reconstructed vegetation changes and fire regimes based on pollen and charcoal records from Gushantun *** then used generalized linear modelling to investigate the impact of reconstructed changes in summer temperature,annual precipitation,background levels of fire,fire frequency and fire magnitude to identify the drivers of decadal-to-centennial changes in forest openness and *** in climate and fire regimes have independent impacts on the abundance of the key tree *** variables are generally more important than fire variables in determining the abundance of individual *** is the only determinant of forest openness,but summer temperature is more important than precipitation for individual tree taxa with warmer summers causing a decrease in cold-tolerant conifers and an increase in warmth-demanding broadleaved *** background level and fire frequency have negative relationships with the abundance of most tree taxa;only Pinus increases as fire frequency *** magnitude of individual fires does not have a significant impact on species abundance on this *** climate and fire regime characteristics must be considered to understand changes in forest composition on the decadal-to-centennial *** are differences,both in sign and magnitude,in the response of individual tree species to individual drivers.

关键词： Forest composition Climate change fire regime fire frequency Changbai Mountains Holocene Generalized linear model

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Distribution patterns of fire regime in the Pendjari Biosphere Reserve, West Africa

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Journal of Arid Land 2023年第10期15卷 1160-1173页

作者： Omobayo G ZOFFOUN Chabi A M S DJAGOUN EtotépéA SOGBOHOSSOU Laboratory of Applied Ecology(LEA) Faculty of Agronomic SciencesUniversity of Abomey-Calavi(UAC)Cotonou 01 BP 526Benin GeoEnvironmemt and Biodiversity Conservation(GeoEBC)NGO Cotonou 02 BP 775Benin Department of Environment Senghor University1 Place Ahmed OrabiA1 Mancheya BP 415Alexandria 21111Egypt

Pendjari Biosphere Reserve(PBR),a primary component of the W-Arly-Pendjari transboundary biosphere reserve,represents the largest intact wild ecosystem and pristine biodiversity spot in West *** savannah ecosystem has long been affected by fire,which is the main ecological driver for the annual rhythm of life in the *** the fire distribution patterns will help to improve its management plan in the *** study explores the fire regime in the PRB during 2001–2021 in terms of burned area,seasonality,fire frequency,and mean fire return interval(MFRI)by analysing moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer(MODIS)burned area *** indicated that the fire season in the PBR extends from October to May with a peak in early dry season(November–December).The last two fire seasons(2019–2020 and 2020–2021)recorded the highest areas burned in the PBR out of the twenty fire seasons *** the twenty years period,8.2%of the reserve burned every 10–11 months and 11.5%burned *** largest part of the reserve burned every one to two years(63.1%),while 8.3%burned every two to four years,5.8%burned every four to ten years,and 1.9%burned every ten to twenty *** 1.3%of the entire area did not fire during the whole study *** returned to a particular site every 1.39 a and the annual percentage of area burned in the PBR was 71.9%.The MFRI(MFRIfire in tree and woodland savannahs to lower grass height,and late dry season fires every two to three years in shrub savannah to limit the expansion of shrubs and *** propose a laissez-faire system in areas in woodland savannah where the fire frequency is sufficient to allow tree *** findings highlight the utility of remote sensing in defining the geographical and

关键词： fire season fire frequency West African savannah moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer(MODIS) burned area

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Wildfires in Botswana and Their frequency of Occurrence

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2021年第4期11卷 689-696页

作者： Kago Ernest Maabong Kgakgamatso Mphale Department of Physical & Chemical Sciences Botswana University of Agriculture and Natural Resources Gaborone Botswana Department of Physics University of Botswana Gaborone Botswana

fires play an essential part in the maintenance of the environment, but amplified fire activity often leads to adverse effects in the environment such as destruction of property and loss of life. Botswana has experienced wildfires that are caused by humans intentionally and unintentionally. Some of these wildfires grow into mega fires such as the 2008 wildfires. Data of wildfires reported in Botswana from the Department of Forestry and Range Resources and the frequency of occurrence was studied and analyzed. It shows the period of 2006-2017, Ghanzi and Ngamiland districts were mostly affected by wildfires. These districts have protected land such as the wildlife parks which may lead to the outbreak of natural wildfires that burns unnoticed due to minimal movements of people. The wildfires reported in each district show an increase over the years and this may affect the smooth running of operations.

关键词： Wildfires Botswana fire frequency Area Burned

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METHODS OF EVALUATING FOREST fire HISTORY

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Journal of Northeast Forestry University 1993年第2期4卷 1-10页

作者： James K.Agee College of Forest Resoures University of Washington U.S.A.

Forest fire history can be reconstructed over past centuries across a wide variety of forest types. fire scars on living tress, and age classes of forest stands, are the two sources of information for these reconstructions. Point and area frequencies are used to reconstruct fire history. Point frequencies are useful in forest types that burn with frequent, low intensity fire so that many fire-scarred residual trees exist. A true point is a single tree, but more often point estimates are made by combining fire scar records from several adjacent trees. Area frequences are applied where fires are infrequent but of moderate to high intensity, so that stand ages are used across wide areas to estimate fire return interals. Proper selection and application of fire history methods are essential to deriving useful ecological implications from fire history studies.This review evaluates the common methods of determining fire history :what the techniques are, where they are best applied, and how to interpret them in an ecological context. Emphasis is placed on fire freqency and predictability, but choosing a proper technique may also be a function of fire intensity.

关键词： fire history fire frequency fire interval

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