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Exposures to temperature beyond threshold disproportionately reduce vegetation growth in the northern hemisphere

National Science Review 2019年第4期6卷 786-795页

作者： Xiuchen Wu Weichao Guo Hongyan Liu Xiaoyan Li Changhui Peng Craig D.Allen Cicheng Zhang Pei Wang Tingting Pei Yujun Ma Yuhong Tian Zhaoliang Song Wenquan Zhu Yang Wang Zongshan Li Deliang Chen State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University College of Urban and Environmental Science Peking University Institute of Environment Sciences University of Quebec at Montreal US Geological Survey Fort Collins Science CenterJemez Mountains Field Station Institute of the Surface-Earth System Science Research Tianjin University State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences Regional Climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of Gothenburg

In recent decades, terrestrial vegetation in the northern hemisphere(NH) has been exposed to warming and more extremely high temperatures. However, the consequences of these changes for terrestrial vegetation growth remain poorly quantified and understood. By examining a satellite-based vegetation index, tree-ring measurements and land-surface model simulations, we discovered a consistent convex pattern in the responses of vegetation growth to temperature exposure(TE) for forest, shrub and grass in both the temperate(30?-50?N) and boreal(50?-70?N) NH during the period of 1982-2012. The response of vegetation growth to TE for the three vegetation types in both the temperate and boreal NH increased convergently with increasing temperature, until vegetation type-dependent temperature thresholds were reached. A TE beyond these temperature thresholds resulted in disproportionately weak positive or even strong negative responses. Vegetation growth in the boreal NH was more vulnerable to extremely high-temperature events than vegetation growth in the temporal NH. The non-linear responses discovered here provide new insights into the dynamics of northern terrestrial ecosystems in a warmer world.

关键词： temperature exposure vegetation growth extremely high temperature non-linear response temperate and boreal northern hemisphere

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未来情境下中国高温的人口暴露度变化及影响因素研究（英文）

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2018年第10期28卷 1371-1384页

作者：黄大鹏张蕾高歌孙劭 National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology National Meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration

Overall population exposure is measured by multiplying the annual average number of extremely hot days by the number of people exposed to the resultant heat. Extreme heat is also subdivided into high temperature（HT） and extremely high temperature（EHT） in cases where daily maximum temperature exceeds 35℃ and 40℃, respectively. Chinese population exposure to HT and EHT over four periods in the future（i.e., 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2060–2081 and 2081–2100） were projected at the grid cell level in this study using daily maximum temperature based on an ensemble mean of 21 global climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario and with a population projection based on the A2 r socio-economic scenario. The relative importance of population and climate as drivers of population exposure was evaluated at different spatial scales including national and meteorological geographical divisions. Results show that, compared with population exposure seen during 1981–2010, the base period, exposure to HT in China is likely to increase by 1.3, 2.0, 3.6, and 5.9 times, respectively, over the four periods, while concomitant exposure to EHT is likely to increase by 2.0, 8.3, 24.2, and 82.7 times, respectively. Data show that population exposure to HT is likely to increase significantly in Jianghuai region, Southwest China and Jianghan region, in particular in North China, Huanghuai region, South China and Jiangnan region. Population exposure to EHT is also likely to increase significantly in Southwest China and Jianghan region, especially in North China, Huanghuai, Jiangnan, and Jianghuai regions. Results reveal that climate is the most important factor driving the level of population exposure in Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, and Jiangnan regions, as well as in South and Southwest China, followed by the interactive effect between population and climate. Data show that the climatic factor is also most significant at the national level, followed by the interactive effect between population and climate. The rate of contribution of climate to nati

关键词： RCP8.5 scenario population exposure high temperature extremely high temperature driving forces

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