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Analysis on Precipitation Efficiency of the “21.7” Henan extremely heavy rainfall Event

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第3期40卷 374-392页

作者： Lei YIN Fan PING Jiahua MAO Shuanggen JIN Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China School of Geomatics and Municipal Engineering Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric PowerHangzhou 310018China Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210000China

A record-breaking heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan province during 19–21 July 2021 is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model,and the large-scale precipitation efficiency(LSPE)and cloud-microphysical precipitation efficiency(CMPE)of the rainfall are analyzed based on the model results.Then,the key physical factors that influenced LSPE and CMPE,and the possible mechanisms for the extreme rainfall over Zhengzhou are explored.Results show that water vapor flux convergence was the key factor that influenced LSPE.Water vapor was transported by the southeasterly winds between Typhoon In-Fa(2021)and the subtropical high,and the southerly flow of Typhoon Cempaka(2021),and converged in Zhengzhou due to the blocking by the Taihang and Funiu Mountains in western Henan province.Strong moisture convergence centers were formed on the windward slope of the mountains,which led to high LSPE in Zhengzhou.From the perspective of CMPE,the net consumption of water vapor by microphysical processes was the key factor that influenced CMPE.Quantitative budget analysis suggests that water vapor was mainly converted to cloud water and ice-phase particles and then transformed to raindrops through melting of graupel and accretion of cloud water by rainwater during the heavy precipitation stage.The dry intrusion in the middle and upper levels over Zhengzhou made the high potential vorticity descend from the upper troposphere and enhanced the convective instability.Moreover,the intrusion of cold and dry air resulted in the supersaturation and condensation of water vapor,which contributed to the heavy rainfall in Zhengzhou.

关键词： extremely heavy rainfall Zhengzhou large-scale precipitation efficiency cloud-microphysical precipitation efficiency

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Uncertainties and error growth in forecasting the record-breaking rainfall in Zhengzhou,Henan on 19–20 July 2021

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Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第10期65卷 1903-1920页

作者： Yunji ZHANG Huizhen YU Murong ZHANG Yawen YANG Zhiyong MENG Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPennsylvania 16802USA Qingdao Meteorological Bureau Qingdao 266003China State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science College of Ocean and Earth SciencesXiamen UniversityXiamen 361102China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China

This study explores the controlling factors of the uncertainties and error growth at different spatial and temporal scales in forecasting the high-impact extremely heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan Province China on 19−20 July 2021 with a record-breaking hourly rainfall exceeding 200 mm and a 24-h rainfall exceeding 600 mm.Results show that the strengths of the mid-level low-pressure system,the upper-level divergence,and the low-level jet determine both the amount of the extreme 24-h accumulated and hourly rainfall at 0800 UTC.The forecast uncertainties of the accumulated rainfall are insensitive to the magnitude and the spatial structure of the tiny,unobservable errors in the initial conditions of the ensemble forecasts generated with Global Ensemble Forecast System(GEFS)or sub-grid-scale perturbations,suggesting that the predictability of this event is intrinsically limited.The dominance of upscale rather than upamplitude error growth is demonstrated under the regime of k^(−5/3) power spectra by revealing the inability of large-scale errors to grow until the amplitude of small-scale errors has increased to an adequate amplitude,and an apparent transfer of the fastest growing scale from smaller to larger scales with a slower growth rate at larger scales.Moist convective activities play a critical role in enhancing the overall error growth rate with a larger error growth rate at smaller scales.In addition,initial perturbations with different structures have different error growth features at larger scales in different variables in a regime transitioning from the k^(−5/3) to k^(−3) power law.Error growth with conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)tends to be more upamplitude relative to the GEFS or sub-grid-scale perturbations possibly owing to the inherited error growth feature of CNOP,the inability of convective parameterization scheme to rebuild the k^(−5/3) power spectra at the mesoscales,and different error growth characteristics in the k^(−5/3) and k^(−3) regimes.

关键词： extremely heavy rainfall Forecast error Predictability Ensemble forecast Henan

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Sensitivity Analysis of the Super heavy rainfall Event in Henan on 20 July(2021)Using ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2022年第3期28卷 308-325页

作者：黄绮君葛旭阳彭顺台邓中仁 Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044 China University of Colorado Colorado SpringColorado 80918 USA

An unprecedented heavy rainfall event occurred in Henan Province,China,during the period of 1200 UTC 19-1200 UTC 20 July 2021 with a record of 522 mm accumulated rainfall.Zhengzhou,the capital city of Henan,received 201.9 mm of rainfall in just one hour on the day.In the present study,the sensitivity of this event to atmospheric variables is investigated using the ECMWF ensemble forecasts.The sensitivity analysis first indicates that a local YellowHuai River low vortex(YHV)in the southern part of Henan played a crucial role in this extreme event.Meanwhile,the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)was stronger than the long-term average and to the west of its climatological position.Moreover,the existence of a tropical cyclone(TC)In-Fa pushed into the peripheral of the WPSH and brought an enhanced easterly flow between the TC and WPSH channeling abundant moisture to inland China and feeding into the YHV.Members of the ECMWF ensemble are selected and grouped into the GOOD and the POOR groups based on their predicted maximum rainfall accumulations during the event.Some good members of ECMWF ensemble Prediction System(ECMWF-EPS)are able to capture good spatial distribution of the heavy rainfall,but still underpredict its extremity.The better prediction ability of these members comes from the better prediction of the evolution characteristics(i.e.,intensity and location)of the YHV and TC In-Fa.When the YHV was moving westward to the south of Henan,a relatively strong southerly wind in the southwestern part of Henan converged with the easterly flow from the channel wind between In-Fa and WPSH.The convergence and accompanying ascending motion induced heavy precipitation.

关键词： ensemble forecast extremely heavy rainfall sensitivity analysis

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