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A Review of Research on the Record-Breaking precipitation Event in Henan Province,China,July 2021

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第8期40卷 1485-1500页

作者： Qinghong ZHANG Rumeng LI Juanzhen SUN Feng LU Jun XU Fan ZHANG Department of Atmospheric&Oceanic sciences School of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China HIWeather International Coordination Office Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China National Center for Atmospheric Science BoulderCO 80307United States Innovation Center for Feng Yun Meteorological Satellite National Satellite Meteorological Center(National Center for Space Weather)China Meteorological AdministrationsBeijing 100049China National Meteorological Center of China Beijing 100081China

A record-breaking precipitation event,with a maximum 24-h(1-h)precipitation of 624 mm(201.9 mm)observed at Zhengzhou Weather Station,occurred in Henan Province,China,in July ***,all global operational forecast models failed to predict the intensity and location of maximum precipitation for this *** unexpected heavy rainfall caused 398 deaths and 120.06 billion RMB of economic *** high-societal-impact of this event has drawn much attention from the research *** article provides a research review of the event from the perspectives of observations,analysis,dynamics,predictability,and the connection with climate warming and *** reanalysis data show that there was an anomalous large-scale circulation pattern that resulted in abundant moisture supply to the region of *** mesoscale systems(a mesoscale low pressure system,a barrier jet,and downslope gravity current)were found by recent high-resolution model simulation and data assimilation studies to have contributed to the local intensification of the ***,observational analysis has suggested that an abrupt increase in graupel through microphysical processes after the sequential merging of three convective cells contributed to the record-breaking *** these findings have aided in our understanding of the extreme rainfall event,preliminary analysis indicated that the practical predictability of the extreme rainfall for this event was rather *** contrary influences of climate warming and urbanization on precipitation extremes as revealed by two studies could add further challenges to the *** conclude that data sharing and collaboration between meteorological and hydrological researchers will be crucial in future research on high-impact weather events.

关键词： extreme precipitation observation dynamics predictability climate warming urbanization

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Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of precipitation extremes in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam During 1980–2017

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2021年第1期12卷 131-146页

作者： Nguyen Trong Quan Dao Nguyen Khoi Nguyen Xuan Hoan Nguyen Ky Phung Thanh Duc Dang Faculty of Environmental and Food Engineering Nguyen Tat Thanh UniversityHo Chi Minh City 700000Vietnam Faculty of Environment University of ScienceHo Chi Minh City 700000Vietnam Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City 700000Vietnam Ho Chi Minh City University of Food Industry Ho Chi Minh City 700000Vietnam Institute for Computational Science and Technology Ho Chi Minh City 700000Vietnam Engineering Systems and Design Pillar Singapore University of Technology and DesignTampines 487372Singapore

In this study,the spatiotemporal variability of trends in extreme precipitation events in Ho Chi Minh City during the period 1980–2017 was analyzed based on several core extreme precipitation indices(Rx1 day,Rx5 day,CDD,CWD,R20 mm,R25 mm,R95 p,and SDII).The nonparametric Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope methods were used to compute the statistical strength,stability,and magnitude of trends in annual rainfall,as well as the extreme precipitation *** found that 64%of the stations had statistically significant upward trends in yearly rainfall,with high magnitudes frequently observed in the northern and southern regions of the *** the extreme precipitation indices,only SDII and R25 mm showed dominantly significant ***,there were increasing trends in the frequency and duration at the southern and central regions of the city during the study ***,El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation positively correlated with the duration and negatively correlated with the intensity and frequency of extreme ***,water management plans should be adjusted appropriately to reduce the severe impacts of precipitation extremes on communities and ecosystems.

关键词： Spatiotemporal trend extreme precipitation extreme precipitation indices Ho Chi Minh City

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Flash Flood Risk Assessment and Driving Factors:A Case Study of the Yantanxi River Basin,Southeastern China

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2022年第2期13卷 291-304页

作者： Liutong Chen Zhengtao Yan Qian Li Yingjun Xu Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Ministry of EducationFaculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of EducationBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China School of National Safety and Emergency Management Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

In the context of climate change,the impact of extreme precipitation and its chain effects has intensified in the southeastern coastal region of China,posing a serious threat to the socioeconomic development in the *** study took tropical cyclones–extreme precipitation–flash floods as an example to carry out a risk assessment of flash floods under climate change in the Yantanxi River Basin,southeastern *** obtain the flash flood inundation characteristics through hydrologic–hydrodynamic modeling,the study combined representative concentration pathway(RCP)and shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios to examine the change of flash flood risk and used the geographical detector to explore the driving factors behind the *** results show that flash flood risk in the Yantanxi River Basin will significantly increase,and that socioeconomic factors and precipitation are the main driving *** the RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP8.5-SSP5 scenarios,the risk of flash floods is expected to increase by 88.79%and 95.57%,*** main drivers in the case study area are GDP density(q=0.85),process rainfall(q=0.74),asset density(q=0.68),and population density(q=0.67).The study highlights the influence of socioeconomic factors on the change of flash flood disaster risk in small river *** findings also provide a reference for regional planning and construction of flood control facilities in flash flood-prone areas,which may help to reduce the risk of flash floods.

关键词： Asset values China Climate change extreme precipitation Flash flood risk Geographical detector Tropical cyclones

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Stationarity in the variability of arid precipitation:A case study of aridCentral Asia

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2021年第2期12卷 172-186页

作者： YAO Jun-Qiang CHEN Jing ZHANG Tong-Wen DILINUER Tuoliewubieke MAO Wei-Yi Institute of Desert Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationUrumqi830002China

precipitation is particularly scarce in arid Central Asia(CA),and is expected to be severely impacted by future warming,and the assessmentof the stationarity of precipitation variability is important for managing surface water resources in this *** this study,we investigated thestatistics of stationarity in the totals and extremes of precipitation in CA based on the longest observational records(1881e2006),tree-ringreconstructed records(1756e2012 and 1760e2015),and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5(CMIP5)simulations,applying theautocorrelation function and testing criteria established based on the statistical definitions of *** analyzed the longest daily pre-cipitation record(Tashkent station,1881e2006)and found that the autocorrelation coefficient of the precipitation totals(PRCPTOT)and annualmaximum 1-day precipitation amount(Rx1day)were statistically insignificant for all lags,implying stationary ***,nearly allthe Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily Database(GHCN-D)observatory sites(1925e2005)indicated likely stationary *** records were also indistinguishable from a random *** the CMIP5 models,the simulated and projected PRCPTOT closelyapproximated a purely random process;however,the projected Rx1day maintained non-stationary means in most of the models under therepresentative concentration pathway(RCPs),implying that extreme events would increase in the *** mean precipitation changes(DP)can be expressed as an exponential function depending on the length of the successive mean periods(m)and variance(s2).TheDPof the nextdecade is projected to be within±14.8%of the previous decades mean annual PRCPTOT over *** higher the RCPs,the higher theDP *** results show that the detection and prediction of precipitation change will be challenging in arid CA.

关键词： Stationarity precipitation extreme precipitation Variance Central Asia

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Spatio-temporal accuracy evaluation of MSWEP daily precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin,China:A comparison study with representative satellite-and reanalysis-based products

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2022年第11期32卷 2271-2290页

作者： LI Lingjie WANG Yintang WANG Leizhi HU Qingfang ZHU Zhenduo LI Liping LI Chengxi State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Science Nanjing Hydraulic Research InstituteNanjing 210029China Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development Nanjing 210098China Department of Civil Structural and Environmental EngineeringUniversity at BuffaloThe State University of New YorkBuffaloNY 14220USA Lvliang Meteorology Bureau of Shanxi Province Lishi 033000ShanxiChina La Salle College Preparatory PasadenaCA 91107USA

Multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation(MSWEP)is one of the most popular merged global precipitation products with long-term spanning and high spatial *** various studies have acknowledged its ability to accurately estimate precipitation in terms of temporal dynamics,its performance regarding spatial pattern and extreme rainfall is *** fill this knowledge gap,the daily precipitation of two versions of MSWEP(MSWEP V2.1&V2.2)are compared with that of three representative satellite-and reanalysis-based products,namely the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM 3B42 V7),the climate prediction center morphing technique satellite-gauge merged product(CMORPH BLD),and the fifth-generation reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5).The comparison is made according to the dense daily rainfall observations from 539 rain gauges over the Huaihe River Basin in China during 2006–*** results show that MSWEP V2.1,MSWEP V2.2 and CMORPH BLD have better performance on temporal accuracy of precipitation estimation,followed by ERA5 and TRMM *** yield the most even spatial distribution across the basin since it takes full advantage of the multi *** the weighted-ensemble method is independently carried out on each grid in MSWEPs,the spatial distribution of local precipitation is changed by different source data,which results in that MSWEPs perform worse than CMORPH BLD in terms of the representation of precipitation spatial *** addition,the capability of MSWEPs to describe the spatial structure in the rainy season is lower than that in the dry *** precipitation(≥100 mm/d)events are better represented in TRMM 3B42 V7 products than in ***,based on the comparison results,we suggest to improve the merging algorithm of MSWEP by considering the precipitation spatial self-correlation and adjusting the merging weights based on the performance of the source datasets under differe

关键词： MSWEP temporal accuracy spatial pattern extreme precipitation Huaihe River Basin

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Aboveground net primary productivity and soil respiration display different responses to precipitation changes in desert grassland

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Journal of Plant Ecology 2022年第1期15卷 57-70页

作者： Lihua Zhang Junfeng Wang Ruifeng Zhao Yafei Guo Lianyi Hao College of Geography and Environment Science Northwest Normal University967 Anning East RoadLanzhou 730070China

precipitation(PPT)changes affect both aboveground vegetation dynamics and belowground carbon cycling processes,particularly in arid and semiarid ***,it remains unclear how extreme PPT variation can affect soil carbon sequestration potential.A 3-year PPT manipulation experiment with five levels(±40%,±20%and ambient PPT)was conducted in a desert grassland of western Loess *** net primary productivity(ANPP)and soil respiration(Rs)were measured to examine whether the responses of ANPP and Rs to PPT changes displayed a double asymmetry *** ANPP was more sensitive to extreme drought than extreme wet treatments in wet and dry years,which displayed a negative asymmetric *** change in ANPP was mainly due to the direct effect of PPT change,and plant density variation also exerted some influence in the dry *** contrast,Rs displayed a positive asymmetry response to PPT change in dry *** may be ascribed to enhanced autotrophic respiration due to the enhanced positive responses of plant growth and ANPP to wet treatments as well as stronger birch effect of rainfall events on heterotrophic *** saturating response of Rs to extreme drought(−40%PPT treatment)was also found in the dry ***,the response of Rs to PPT change displayed a negative asymmetry model in wet *** contrasting models for ANPP and Rs in response to altered PPT regime suggest that extreme wet or dry treatments may increase soil C pools effluxes toward debt in this desert grassland.

关键词： primary production plant growth soil respiration soil carbon balance extreme precipitation desert grassland asymmetry response

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Near Future (2016-40) Summer precipitation Changes over China as Projected by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) under the RCP8.5 Emissions Scenario: Comparison between RCM Downscaling and the Driving GCM

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第3期30卷 806-818页

作者：邹立维周天军 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

Multi-decadal high resolution simulations over the CORDEX East Asia domain were performed with the regional climate model RegCM3 nested within the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 （FGOALS-g2）. Two sets of simulations were conducted at the resolution of 50 km, one for present day （1980-2005） and another for near-future climate （2015-40） under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 （RCP8.5） scenario. Results show that RegCM3 adds value with respect to FGOALS-g2 in simulating the spatial patterns of summer total and extreme precipitation over China for present day climate. The major deficiency is that RegCM3 underestimates both total and extreme precipi- tation over the Yangtze River valley. The potential changes in total and extreme precipitation over China in summer under the RCP8.5 scenario were analyzed. Both RegCM3 and FGOALS-g2 results show that total and extreme precipitation tend to increase over northeastern China and the Tibetan Plateau, but tend to decrease over southeastern China. In both RegCM3 and FGOALS-g2, the change in extreme precipitation is weaker than that for total precipitation. RegCM3 projects much stronger amplitude of total and extreme precipitation changes and provides more regional-scale features than FGOALS-g2. A large uncertainty is found over the Yangtze River valley, where RegCM3 and FGOALS-g2 project opposite signs in terms of precipitation changes. The projected change of vertically integrated water vapor flux convergence generally follows the changes in total and extreme precipitation in both RegCM3 and FGOALS-g2, while the amplitude of change is stronger in RegCM3. Results suggest that the spatial pattern of projected precipitation changes may be more affected by the changes in water vapor flux convergence, rather than moisture content itself.

关键词： dynamical downscaling extreme precipitation near future precipitation changes

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Atlas of precipitation extremes for South America and Africa based on depth-duration-frequency relationships in a stochastic weather generator dataset

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International Soil and Water Conservation Research 2023年第4期11卷 726-742页

作者： Andrew Fullhart David C.Goodrich Menberu B.Meles Paulo Tarso S.Oliveira Cristiano das Neves Almeida JoséC.de Araújo Shea Burns Southwest Watershed Research Center USDA-ARS 2000 E.Allen Rd.TucsonAZ85719United States Sustainable Agricultural Water Systems Unit USDA-ARS 239 Hopkins RoadDavisCA95616United States Faculty of Engineering Architecture and Urbanism and GeographyUniversidade Federal de Mato Grosso do SulCampo GrandeMS79070-900Brazil Water Resources and Environmental Engineering Laboratory Universidade Federal da ParaíbaJoao PessoaPB58051-900Brazil Department of Agricultural Engineering Campus do Pici Fortaleza Universidade Federal do CearáFortaleza60020-181Brazil

Information about extreme rainfall is lacking in regions of South America and *** study attempts to fill this scientific gap by use of a gridded parameterization for the stochastic weather generator,CLIGEN,to map depth-duration-frequency(DDF)*** of 500-year point-scale precipitation time series generated at each grid point allowed maps of return period precipitation to be produced for a se-lection of sixteen durations ranging from 10-min to 1-year and for nine return periods from 2 to 500 *** generalized extreme value(GEV)probability distribution was fitted for all durations,and given GEV quantiles,an interpolation method was applied to produce maps at 0.1° resolution that better resolve small-scale spatial climate *** addition to uncertainties related to GEV fitting,this study quantifies prediction intervals based on ground *** validation was important for identifying biases in CLIGEN,although uncertainties were not always satisfactorily defined due to sampling design and other *** daily/multi-day durations,100 stations with daily observations and ≥50-year records were selected for validation against the 0.1° CLIGEN map series,resulting in a median and average absolute error of 13%and 16%,*** sub-daily durations,prediction errors were larger *** analogy using available *** established the degree of bias in CUGEN for sub-daily durations,and three records in Brazil with high temporal resolutions were used to confirm that applied bias adjustments resulted in error ranges similar to the daily/multi-day *** atlas is freely available for study of extreme precipitation.

关键词： Africa Depth-duration-frequency extreme precipitation South America

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Projection of Future precipitation Change over China with a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2011年第2期28卷 464-476页

作者：冯蕾周天军吴波 Tim LI State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences IPRC and University of Hawaii

Projections of future precipitation change over China are studied based on the output of a global AGCM, ECHAM5, with a high resolution of T319 （equivalent to 40 km）. Evaluation of the model’s performance in simulating present-day precipitation shows encouraging results. The spatial distributions of both mean and extreme precipitation, especially the locations of main precipitation centers, are reproduced reasonably. The simulated annual cycle of precipitation is close to the observed. The performance of the model over eastern China is generally better than that over western China. A weakness of the model is the overestimation of precipitation over northern and western China. Analyses on the potential change in precipitation projected under the A1B scenario show that both annual mean precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation would increase significantly over southeastern China. The percentage increase in extreme precipitation is larger than that of mean precipitation. Meanwhile, decreases in mean and extreme precipitation are evident over the southern Tibetan Plateau. For precipitation days, extreme precipitation days are projected to increase over all of China. Both consecutive dry days over northern China and consecutive wet days over southern China would decrease.

关键词： future precipitation change high-resolution AGCM simulation extreme precipitation

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Evaluation of IMERG, TMPA, ERA5, and CPC precipitation products over China's Mainland: Spatiotemporal patterns and extremes

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Water Science and Engineering 2023年第1期16卷 45-56页

作者： Shan-hu Jiang Lin-yong Wei Li-liang Ren Lin-qi Zhang Meng-hao Wang Hao Cui State Key Laboratory of HydrologyeWater Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China College of Hydrology and Water Resources Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China

A comprehensive assessment of representative satellite-retrieved(Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global precipitation Measurement(IMERG)and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite precipitation Analysis(TMPA)),reanalysis-based(fifth generation of atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5)),and gauge-estimated(Climate Prediction Center(CPC))precipitation products was conducted using the data from 807 meteorological stations across China's Mainland from 2001 to *** statistical metrics,precipitation distribution functions,and extreme precipitation indices were used to evaluate the quality of the four precipitation products in terms of multi-timescale accuracy and extreme precipitation *** the timescale increased from daily to seasonal scales,the accuracy of the four precipitation products first increased and then decreased,and all products performed best on the monthly *** accuracy ranking in descending order was CPC,IMERG,TMPA,and ERA5 on the daily timescale and IMERG,CPC,TMPA,and ERA5 on the monthly and seasonal *** was generally superior to its predecessor TMPA on the three ***5 exhibited large statistical *** provided stable estimated *** extreme precipitation estimation,the quality of IMERG was relatively consistent with that of TMPA in terms of precipitation distribution and extreme metrics,and IMERG exhibited a significant advantage in estimating moderate and heavy *** contrast,ERA5 and CPC exhibited poor performance with large systematic underestimation *** findings of this study provide insight into the performance of the latest IMERG product compared with the widely used TMPA,ERA5,and CPC datasets,and points to possible directions for improvement of multi-source precipitation data fusion algorithms in order to better serve hydrological applications.

关键词： IMERG TMPA ERA5 CPC extreme precipitation

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