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Heterogeneous Trends of Precipitation extremes in Recent Two Decades over East Africa

Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第6期35卷 1057-1073页

作者： Zacharia Florence MTEWELE Xiyan XU Gensuo JIA Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Physics Department University of Dares SalaamDares Salaam P.O.Box 35063Tanzania

East Africa is so vulnerable to the impacts of precipitation extremes varying from frequent floods to prolonged ***,systematic regional assessment of precipitation extremes across seasons has received little attention,and most previous studies of precipitation extremes have employed many indices and sparse gauge observations giving marginalized *** this study,we use three precipitation extreme indices to examine the intensity of the highest single-day rainfall record(rx1day),prevalence of very heavy rainfalls(r30mm),and persistence of successive wet days(cwd)at both annual and seasonal scales over recent two decades(1998-2018)based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM)Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis *** results show that the most intensive and frequent precipitation extremes are noticeable from January to May across the areas extending from Madagascar to the Tanzanian coastal *** areas also exhibit patches of significant increasing trends in frequency,duration,and intensity of precipitation extremes annually and ***,significant declines in frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes are observed from western Ethiopia to Congo-Uganda,especially in *** October-December season witnesses higher interannual variability amounting to overall weak and less significant *** subregional assessment shows overall declining intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes in northern part of the study *** wetness duration increased,with persistence of moderate wet days and slight reduction of severe *** study unveils higher susceptibility of the East African region to the widely observed hotspots of precipitation extremes posing threats to food security,water resource,and human *** region should consider upscaling irrigation schemes in addition to planning resilient and supportive infrastructures to withstand the upsurging precipitation extremes,especially al

关键词： precipitation extremes East Africa extreme indices Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) climate extremes

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