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Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and extreme drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1184-1200,I0022-I0034页

作者： Bin TANG Wenting HU Anmin DUAN Yimin LIU Wen BAO Yue XIN Xianyi YANG State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 101408China State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science College of Ocean and Earth SciencesXiamen UniversityXiamen 361005China Chinese Academy of Sciences the CAS Institutes of Science and DevelopmentBeijing 101408China School of Public Policy and Management University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China

Heavy precipitation and extreme drought have caused severe economic losses over South China and Indochina(INCSC)in recent decades.Given the areas with large gross domestic product(GDP)in the INCSC region are distributed along the coastline and greatly affected by global warming,understanding the possible economic impacts induced by future changes in the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(RX5day)and the maximum consecutive dry days(CDD)is critical for adaptation planning in this region.Based on the latest data released by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),future projections of precipitation extremes with bias correction and their impacts on GDP over the INCSC region under the fossil-fueled development Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP5-8.5)are investigated.Results indicate that RX5day will intensify robustly throughout the INCSC region,while CDD will lengthen in most regions under global warming.The changes in climate consistently dominate the effect on GDP over the INCSC region,rather than the change of GDP.If only considering the effect of climate change on GDP,the changes in precipitation extremes bring a larger impact on the economy in the future to the provinces of Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,Guangdong,and Hainan in South China,as well as the Malay Peninsula and southern Cambodia in Indochina.Thus,timely regional adaptation strategies are urgent for these regions.Moreover,from the sub-regional average viewpoint,over two thirds of CMIP6 models agree that maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the economic impacts from heavy precipitation over the INCSC region.

关键词： CMIP6 heavy precipitation extreme drought South China Indochina economic impact

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Differences and similarities in radial growth of Betula species to climate change

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Journal of Forestry Research 2024年第2期35卷 176-187页

作者： Di Liu Yang An Zhao Li Zhihui Wang Yinghui Zhao Xiaochun Wang Center for Ecological Research Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem ManagementMinistry of EducationCollege of ForestryNortheast Forestry UniversityHarbin 150040People’s Republic of China Changan Park in Shijiazhuang Shijiazhuang 050000People’s Republic of China Shijiazhuang Landscape Greening Engineering Project Construction Center Shijiazhuang 050000People’s Republic of China Heilongjiang Institute of Meteorological Science Harbin 150030People’s Republic of China School of Life Qufu Normal UniversityQufu 273100People’s Republic of China

Betula platyphylla and Betula costata are important species in mixed broadleaved-Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis)forests.However,the specific ways in which their growth is affected by warm temperatures and drought remain unclear.To address this issue,60 and 62 tree-ring cores of B.platyphylla and B.costata were collected in Yichun,China.Using dendrochronological methods,the response and adaptation of these species to climate change were examined.A“hysteresis effect”was found in the rings of both species,linked to May–September moisture conditions of the previous year.Radial growth of B.costata was positively correlated with the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index(SPEI),the precipitation from September to October of the previous year,and the relative humidity in October of the previous year.Growth of B.costata is primarily restricted by moisture conditions from September to October.In contrast,B.platyphylla growth is mainly limited by minimum temperatures in May–June of both the previous and current years.After droughts,B.platyphylla had a faster recovery rate compared to B.costata.In the context of rising temperatures since 1980,the correlation between B.platyphylla growth and monthly SPEI became positive and strengthened over time,while the growth of B.costata showed no conspicuous change.Our findings suggest that the growth of B.platyphylla is already affected by warming temperatures,whereas B.costata may become limited if warming continues or intensifies.Climate change could disrupt the succession of these species,possibly accelerating the succession of pioneer species.The results of this research are of great significance for understanding how the growth changes of birch species under warming and drying conditions,and contribute to understanding the structural adaptation of mixed broadleaved-Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis)forests under climate change.

关键词： Tree rings Betula platyphylla Betula costata Climate response Moving correlation extreme drought

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Distributional and behavioral responses of the wintering Oriental Storks to drought in China’s largest freshwater lake

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Avian Research 2024年第2期15卷 187-195页

作者： Fucheng Yang Mingqin Shao Jianying Wang College of Life Science Jiangxi Normal UniversityNanchang330022China

extreme droughts are increasing in frequency and severity globally as a result of climate change.Developing understanding of species’responses to drought is crucial for their conservation,especially in regions experi-encing increased aridity.Although numerous studies have investigated birds’responses to drought,the emphasis has primarily been on landbirds.drought can significantly alter the wetland environments that waterbirds inhabit,but the response of waterbirds to drought remains understudied.In this study,we surveyed the distri-bution and behavior of Oriental Storks(Ciconia boyciana)in Poyang Lake,which is the largest freshwater lake in China.Results indicate that drought-induced catchment areas at the lowest water level limited the total popu-lation size of Oriental Storks in the sub-lakes.Sub-lakes with large catchment areas at the lowest water level demonstrated a capacity to support a larger population of wintering Oriental Storks.Over time,Oriental Storks exhibited a gradual concentration in Changhu Lake,characterized by larger catchments,after resource depletion in sub-lakes with smaller catchments.Additionally,the duration of Oriental Storks’vigilance and moving be-haviors decreased significantly compared with that observed before the drought.After the drought,Oriental Storks increased their foraging efforts,as evidenced by increased presence in deeper water and reaching their heads and necks into deeper water to forage,higher search rates,but lower foraging rates.In accordance with area-restricted search theory,reductions in habitat quality resulting from drought,including extensive fish die-offs,forced Oriental Storks to increase their foraging efforts.Sustaining a specific water area in sub-lakes during droughts can preserve resource availability,which is crucial for the conservation of Oriental Storks.Imple-menting measures such as water level control and micro-modification of lake bottoms in sub-lakes might mitigate the impact of drought on the piscivorous Oriental Storks.

关键词： Climate change extreme drought Foraging behavior Oriental stork Poyang lake

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extreme drought changes in Southwest China from 1960 to 2009

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2013年第1期23卷 3-16页

作者： ZHANG Mingjun HE Jinyun WANG Baolong WANG Shengjie LI Shanshan LIU Wenli MA Xuening College of Geography and Environment Sciences Northwest Normal University Lanzhou 730070 China

Based on the daily data of temperature and precipitation of 108 meteorological stations in Southwest China from 1960 to 2009, we calculate the monthly and yearly surface humid indexes, as well as the extreme drought frequency. According to the data, the temporal and spatial characteristics of the extreme drought frequency in inter-annual, inter-decadal, summer monsoon period and winter monsoon period are analyzed. The results are indicated as follows. （1） In general, the southwestern Sichuan Basin, southern Hengduan Mountains, southern coast of Guangxi and northern Guizhou are the areas where the extreme drought frequency has significantly increased in the past 50 years. As for the decadal change, from the 1960s to the 1980s the extreme drought frequency has presented a decreasing trend, while the 1990s is the wettest decade and the whole area is turning wet. In the 2000s, the extreme drought frequency rises quickly, but the regional differences reduce. （2） During summer monsoon period, the extreme drought frequency is growing, which generally occurs in the high mountains around the Sichuan Basin, most parts of Guangxi and ＂the broom-shaped mountains＂ in Yunnan. It is distinct that the altitude has impacts on the ex- treme drought frequency; during winter monsoon period, the area is relatively wet and the extreme drought frequency is decreasing. （3） During summer monsoon period, the abrupt change is observed in 2003, whereas the abrupt change during winter monsoon period is in 1989. The annual extreme drought frequency variation is a superposition of abrupt changes during summer monsoon and winter monsoon periods. The departure sequence vibration of annual extreme drought frequency is quasi-5 years and quasi-12 years.

关键词： Southwest China extreme drought summer monsoon winter monsoon

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The Record-Breaking extreme drought in Yunnan Province, Southwest China during Spring-Early Summer of 2019 and Possible Causes

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 997-1012页

作者： Ting DING Hui GAO National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

In spring and early summer of 2019, Yunnan Province experienced the most severe seasonal drought on record,with days of extreme drought area exceeding 10^5 km^2 far more than normal. Consistently, the precipitation in each month from February to June is over 30% less than normal, and about 50% less in the most severe drought period(April–June). The rainy season in Southwest China(SWC) started on the third pentad in June 2019, which is the second latest in history. The rainy season in Yunnan started on 24 June, which is the latest(29 days later than normal). On the contrary, the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) is abnormally early. The lag time between the start of the rainy season in SWC and the onset of the SCSSM in 2019 is 7 pentads, which is the largest since 1961, much longer than the climate mean(less than 1 pentad). The present study analyzes the possible reasons why the rainy season came extremely late and the drought disaster persisted and intensified after a much early SCSSM, at both seasonal and subseasonal timescales. The abnormally late onset of the rainy season and the second greatest potential evapotranspiration(PET) since 1981 are the direct reasons for the persistent drought. Statistical results show that the water vapor from southwest of Yunnan in April–June contributes more than that from the east at the seasonal scale. In April–June 2019, however, the southern branch trough(SBT) was abnormally weak, the large and strong anticyclonic wind anomaly prevailed over the Bay of the Bengal(BOB), and the meridional water vapor transport to Yunnan was weak. At the subseasonal scale, the weaker SBT lasted the longest, and the strong convection over the BOB came up late despite of an early onset of the SCSSM, which resulted in reduced low-level moisture convergence in Yunnan and development of drought prior to the SCSSM onset. From the onset of SCSSM to the start of rainy season in SWC, the SBT and meridional water vapor transport from the BOB were still weak, and the water vapor was main

关键词： Yunnan Province extreme drought South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) rainy season in Southwest China(SWC) southern branch trough(SBT)

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Baseflow Separation and Its Response to Meteorological drought in a Temperate Water-limited Basin,North China

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Chinese Geographical Science 2021年第5期31卷 867-876页

作者： LIU Qiang YAN Sirui LI Miao MA Kiaojing LIANG Liqiao ZHANG Junlong PAN Jihua State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation School of EnvironmentBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Sciences Ministry of EducationSchool of EnvironmentBeijing Normal UniversitBeijing100875China School of Geography and Tourism Qufu Normal UniversitRizhao 276826China Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China School of Geography and Environment Shandong Normal UniversityJinan 250358China

Baseflow,a component of the total streamflow,plays a key role in maintaining aquatic habitats,particularly during extreme drought events.This study investigated baseflow response to a prolonged and extreme meteorological drought event in the Baiyangdian Basin(BYD basin),a temperate water-limited basin in North China.Applying a precipitation series,piecewise regression was used to determine this extreme meteorological drought event,while the Automatic Baseflow Identification Technique(ABIT)was used to estimate a recession parameter(α),which was used to isolate baseflow from total streamflow.Results showed that:1)annual precipitation exhibited significant decreasing trends(Pextreme meteorological drought event was from August 1996 to May 2011,respectively,persisting for a total of 178 months(roughly 15 yr);2)hydrological drought(including streamflow and baseflow)lagged behind meteorological drought while predictably persisting longer than extreme meteorological drought(i.e.,precipitation);and 3)baseflow decreased dramatically under meteorological drought at both seasonal and annual scales,resulting in significantly decreasing trends during drought periods.Findings from this study confirmed that hydrological events caused by extreme meteorological drought can alter the magnitude and duration of baseflow and total streamflow,which will have an inevitable influence on aquatic ecosystems.

关键词： baseflow extreme drought recession parameter Baiyangdian Basin

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近50年西南地区极端干旱气候变化特征

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地理 2012年第1期

作者：贺晋云张明军王鹏王圣杰王兴梅

利用中国气象局整编的1960-2009年西南地区108站逐日气温、降水等资料，计算年、月地表湿润指数，并进行标准化，统计极端干旱发生频率，对年际、年代际、季风期和非季风期的极端干旱变化特征进行分析，得出结论：（1）整体上，四川盆... 详细信息

利用中国气象局整编的1960-2009年西南地区108站逐日气温、降水等资料，计算年、月地表湿润指数，并进行标准化，统计极端干旱发生频率，对年际、年代际、季风期和非季风期的极端干旱变化特征进行分析，得出结论：（1）整体上，四川盆地西南部、横断山区南端、广西南部沿海和贵州北部是近50年来年极端干旱发生频率明显增加的地区；年代际变化上，20世纪60-80年代极端干旱呈逐渐减少趋势，高发区交替出现在东南—西北—东，90年代下降明显，整个地区都转湿，进入21世纪后，极端干旱距平呈现正距平，且增幅较大，区域间差异却显著减小。（2）季风期与非季风期的极端干旱变化有很大差异，季风期极端干旱频率在不断增加，多发生在四川盆地周边海拔较高的山区、广西大部和“帚形山脉”地带，海拔对季风期极端干旱发生频率有一定影响；非季风期缓慢下降，整体偏湿。（3）通过滑动t检验和小波分析发现，季风期西南极端干旱在2003年发生突变，非季风期在1989年突变，年极端干旱发生频率是季风期和非季风期的突变叠加的结果；年极端干旱存在准5年和准12年的周期变化。

关键词：西南地区极端干旱季风期非季风期时空特征 Southwest China extreme drought summer monsoon winter monsoon temporal and spatial characteristics

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