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Analyses of extreme climate Events over China Based on CMIP5 Historical and Future Simulations

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第5期31卷 1209-1220页

作者： YANG Shili FENG Jinming DONG Wenjie CHOU Jieming State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Process and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Key Laboratory of Regional climate–Environment for East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University

Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） models, cli- matic extremes and their changes over China in the past and under the future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways （RCPs） are analyzed. In observations, frost days （FD） and low-temperature threshold days （TN10P） show a de- creasing trend, and summer days （SU）, high-temperature threshold days （TX90P）, heavy precipitation days （R20）, and the contribution of heavy precipitation days （P95T） show an increasing trend. Most models are able to simulate the main char- acteristics of most extreme indices. In particular, the mean FD and TX90P are reproduced the best, and the basic trends of FD, TN10P, SU and TX90P are represented. For the FD and SU indexes, most models show good ability in capturing the spatial differences between the mean state of the periods 1986--2005 and 1961-80; however, for other indices, the simulation abilities for spatial disparity are less satisfactory and need to be improved. Under the high emissions scenario of RCP8.5, the century-scale linear changes of the multi-model ensemble （MME） for FD, SU, TN10P, TX90P, R20 and P95T are -46.9, 46.0, -27.1, 175.4, and 2.9 days, and 9.9%, respectively; and the spatial change scope for each index is consistent with the emissions intensity. Due to the complexities of physical process pararneterizations and the limitation of forcing data, great uncertainty still exists with respect to the simulation of climatic extremes.

关键词： extreme climate China CMIP5 RCPs

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Spatiotemporal variation of ecological environment quality and extreme climate drivers on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

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Journal of Mountain Science 2023年第8期20卷 2282-2297页

作者： SUN Tao YANG Yan-mei WANG Ze-gen YONG Zhi-wei XIONG Jun-nan MA Guo-li LI Jie LIU Ao School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics Southwest Petroleum UniversityChengdu 610500China School of Geoscience and Technology Southwest Petroleum UniversityChengdu 610500China State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Protecting the ecological security of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)is of great importance for global ecology and *** the past few decades,climate extremes have posed a significant challenge to the ecological environment of the ***,there are few studies that explored the effects of climate extremes on ecological environment quality of the QTP,and few researchers have made quantitative ***,this paper proposed the Ecological Environmental Quality Index(EEQI)for analyzing the spatial and temporal variation of ecological environment quality on the QTP from 2000 to 2020,and explored the effects of climate extremes on EEQI based on Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression(GTWR)*** results showed that the ecological environment quality in QTP was poor in the west,but good in the *** 2000 and 2020,the area of EEQI variation was large(34.61%of the total area),but the intensity of EEQI variation was relatively low and occurred mainly by a slightly increasing level(EEQI change range of 0.05-0.1).The overall ecological environment quality of the QTP exhibited spatial and temporal fluctuations,which may be attributed to climate *** spatial heterogeneity was observed in the effects of the climate extremes on ecological environment ***,the effects of daily temperature range(DTR),number of frost days(FD0),maximum 5-day precipitation(RX5day),and moderate precipitation days(R10)on ecological environment quality were positive in most ***,there were significant temporal differences in the effects of consecutive dry days(CDD),consecutive wet days(CWD),R10,and FD0 on ecological environment *** differences may be attributed to variances in ecological environment quality,climate extremes,and vegetation types across different *** conclusion,the impact of climate extremes on ecological environment quality exhibits complex *** findings will assist managers in iden

关键词： Ecological environment quality extreme climate Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

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Impact of extreme climate and train traffic loads on the performance of high-speed railway geotechnical infrastructures

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Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A(Applied Physics & Engineering) 2023年第3期24卷 189-205页

作者： Ying WU Haoran FU Xuecheng BIAN Yunmin CHEN MOE Key Laboratory of Soft Soils and Geoenvironmental Engineering Zhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310058China Department of Civil Engineering Zhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310058China

High-speed railways are very important in global ***,the railway subgrade is significantly affected by the environment due to its exposure to the *** present,global warming is the primary trend in world climate change and seriously damages railway *** to the coupling effect of extreme environmental and train loads,various subgrade problems tend to arise,such as settlement,ballast fouling,and mud pumping,thus inducing frequent railway accidents and reducing travel *** into the problems triggered by extreme climate and train loads are critical to the design and long-term operation of high-speed railway *** study therefore presents a detailed survey of recent advances in typical subgrade problems through analyzing the problem formation mechanisms and *** and emerging detection/monitoring technologies in respect of subgrade problems are discussed in detail,as well as pre-accident and post-accident maintenance ***,according to the existing challenges in long-term subgrade shakedown assessment,an outlook on open opportunities is provided for future research.

关键词： High-speed railways Subgrade performance Train loads extreme climate

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Spatio-temporal Characteristics of the extreme climate Events and Their Potential Effects on Crop Yield in Ethiopia

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Journal of Resources and Ecology 2018年第3期9卷 290-301页

作者： SONG Shuai LI Fadong LU Yonglong Kifayatullah Khan XUE Jianfang LENG Peifang State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100085 China Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Department of Environmental and Conservation Sciences University of Swat Swat 19130 Pakistan

extreme climate events exhibit an increasing spatio-temporal trend globally, and the increasing intensity and frequency may have severe impacts on the human society and natural ecosystems. This study analyzed the extreme temperature and precipitation variability from 1956 to 2016, and evaluated their potential effects on crop yield in Ethiopia. Relative extreme temperature indices exhibited a decreasing trend with low-temperature events, but a significantly upward trend with extreme high temperature events. The frequency of annual warm nights increased to a greater degree than that of cold days. The total annual wet-day precipitation decreased significantly at a rate of-46 mm/decade. Further, the succession of dry days gradually increased by 5.6 day/decade, while an opposite trend of wet days was found with a decline of 1.4 day/decade. The correlation between annual precipitation and crop production was 0.422, indicating that extreme precipitation indices may have higher explanatory power than extreme temperature indices in the crop yield variations. Moreover, the extreme climate changes have induced significant adverse impacts on crops yield particularly in Ethiopia where no proper adaptation measures have been implemented.

关键词： extreme climate crop yield trend analysis Ethiopia

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The Role of Local Knowledge in the Risk Management of extreme climates in Local Communities:A Case Study in a Nomadic NIAHS Site

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Journal of Resources and Ecology 2021年第4期12卷 532-542页

作者： WANG Guoping YANG Lun LIU Moucheng LI Zhidong HE Siyuan MIN Qingwen Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

In the context of climate change,research on extreme climates and disaster risk management has become a crucial component of climate change *** communities,which have been facing extreme climates for a long time in their production and daily life,have developed some locally applicable traditional knowledge that has played an important role in their adaptation to extreme climate and disaster risk ***,this research aims to link Local knowledge(LK)to community extreme climate disaster risk management in order to construct a conceptual *** then takes the extreme climate adaptation strategy of traditional nomads in a temperate grassland of China as an example to analyze the role of LK in extreme climate adaptation using the proposed theoretical *** main research objectives of this study are:(1)To construct a conceptual model to illustrate the relations among extreme climate events,risk management,LK,and farmers’adaptation strategies;(2)To apply the theoretical framework to a field case to reveal context-specific extreme climate adaptation mechanisms with LK as a critical component;(3)To test the framework and provide suggestions for the extreme climates adaptation,and the conservation of LK related to climate change *** results show that from the perspective of disaster risk management,local communities could manage extreme climates as a disaster risk through adaptation strategies formed from LK,because as a knowledge system,LK contains relevant knowledge covering the whole process of disaster risk management.

关键词： local knowledge extreme climate adaptive strategies disaster risk management Ar Horqin Grassland Nomadic System in Inner Mongolia China Nationally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems(China-NIAHS) Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems(GIAHS)

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Horizontal distribution and levels of heavy metals in the biggest snowstorm in a century in Shenyang,China

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2008年第7期20卷 846-851页

作者： AN Jing ZHOU Qixing LIU Weitao REN Liping Key Laboratory of Terrestrial Ecological Process Institute of Applied EcologyChinese Academy of SciencesShenyang 110016China The Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039China Key Laboratory of Pollution Processes and Environmental Criteria(Ministry of Education) College of Environmental Science and EngineeringNankai UniversityTianjin 300071China

The horizontal distribution and levels of heavy metals in the biggest snowstorm in Shenyang since 1904 were investigated by analyzing 4 metals (As,Cd,Pb,and Cu) in a series of ultraclean samples collected from 17 sites distributed in different regions of the Shenyang area,*** results showed that the concentrations of all the 4 heavy metals in snow from the industrial regions were high,up to 7.3 (As),2.2 (Cd),850.0 (Pb),and 0.197-20.2 (Cu)μg/kg,*** the suburb,in contrast,their concentration...

关键词： heavy metal distribution pollution level snowstorm extreme climate

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Impact of climate change on food security in the Central Asian countries

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第1期67卷 268-280页

作者： Fang SU Yu LIU Lvfan CHEN Rustam OROZBAEV Liangcheng TAN School of Economics and Management Northwest UniversityXi’an 710127China School of Economics and Management Shaanxi University of Science and TechnologyXi’an 710021China State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesXi’an 710061China Institute of Geology National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyz RepublicBishkek 720040Kyrgyzstan Institute of Global Environmental Change Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an 710049China

The current and potential impacts of global warming have generated widespread concerns about food security among all sectors of *** Asian countries located deep in the interior of Asia with fragile ecological environments and lower agricultural technology are particularly more prone to severe threats from climate *** on panel data acquired in five Central Asian countries from 1990 to 2019,a C-D-C model was developed to study how climate change affects food security in the region and to predict future *** study found that the level of food security has generally increased for these five Central Asian countries over the past 30 years,with Kazakhstan and Tajikistan having the highest and lowest food security levels,*** average annual temperature and precipitation exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with the region’s food security,with the most positive effect on the food security of *** high and low temperatures have significantly affected food security in the studied region,with Turkmenistan experiencing the most significant negative *** number of frost days had no significant effect on food *** analysis of future climate showed that the temperature and precipitation in Central Asia will continue to increase from 2030 to 2090,which will negatively impact the food security of these *** is recommended that the Central Asian countries enhance their understanding of climate risks,strengthen scientific climate research,and develop multiple adaptation strategies in ***,they are encouraged to consolidate international cooperation,reducing greenhouse gas emissions effectively and maintaining the ability to ensure food security.

关键词： Global warming extreme climate Food security Future forecasts Five Central Asian countries

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Ice storm damage to oak forests in subtropical China

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Forest Ecosystems 2023年第3期10卷 368-377页

作者： Jinyu Guo Jifa Cui Nan Wu Yaqian Zhang Jie Wang Hanyu Xiang Baoshuang Hu Youbing Zhou Engineering Research Center of Eco-environment in Three Gorges Reservoir Region Ministry of EducationChina Three Gorges UniversityYichang443002China

Ice storms,as important sources of frequent and injurious disturbances,drive forest dynamics in the Northern ***,stand-level differential vulnerability to ice storms and the associated factors that predispose forest stands remain *** is particularly concerning in the subtropics where the frequency of ice storms is predicted to increase with global *** we assessed how the impact on three forest stands(early and late secondary-growth forests,and old-growth forests)differed after an extreme ice storm during 20–21 March 2022,and identified the abiotic and biotic factors that determine the damage intensity in the Shennongjia World Natural Heritage Site,a biodiversity conservation hotspot in central *** found a stand-specific‘middomain effect’where the late secondary-growth forest sustained the most severe damage,the early secondarygrowth forest sustained the least,and the old-growth forest suffered an intermediate amount.‘Crown broken’was the most severe damage type across all three forest stands,although the proportion of‘branch broken’was also high in the old-growth *** played a significant role in determining the vulnerability of the early secondary-growth forest to severe ice storms whereas the forest structure and composition were important factors in explaining the damage rates in the old-growth forest,although they differed among the damage *** contrast,topography,forest structure and composition generally explain the intensity of damage in the late secondary-growth *** results highlight that,in subtropical forests,the intensity of damage caused by severe ice storms and related determining factors are stand-level *** also suggest exploring potential management strategies(e.g.,slow-growing hardwood species that can resist storms should be the main species for reforestation in early secondary-growth forests)to mitigate the risk of future severe ice storms,as well as other wind-related cli

关键词： Ice storm Forest stand extreme climate Forest vulnerability Abiotic and biotic factors Oak forest

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extreme drought with seasonal timing consistently promotes CH_(4) uptake through inconsistent pathways in a temperate grassland, China

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Journal of Arid Land 2024年第6期16卷 768-778页

作者： ZHANG Wenwen PAN Yue WEN Fuqi FU Juanjuan HAO Yanbin HU Tianming YANG Peizhi College of Grassland Agriculture Northwest A&F UniversityYangling 712100China Binzhou Institute of Technology Weiqiao-UCAS(University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)Science and Technology ParkBinzhou 256606China College of Life Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Methane(CH_(4))is a potent greenhouse gas that has a substantial impact on global warming due to its substantial influence on the greenhouse *** extreme precipitation events,such as drought,attributable to global warming that caused by greenhouse gases,exert a profound impact on the intricate biological processes associated with CH_(4) ***,the timing of extreme drought occurrence emerges as a pivotal factor influencing CH_(4) uptake,even when the degree of drought remains ***,it is still unclear how the growing season regulates the response of CH_(4) uptake to extreme *** an effort to bridge this knowledge gap,we conducted a field manipulative experiment to evaluate the impact of extreme drought on CH_(4) uptake during early,middle,and late growing stages in a temperate steppe of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,*** result showed that all extreme drought consistently exerted positive effects on CH_(4) uptake regardless of seasonal ***,the magnitude of this effect varied depending on the timing of season,as evidenced by a stronger effect in early growing stage than in middle and late growing ***,the pathways of CH_(4) uptake were different from seasonal *** drought affected soil physical-chemical properties and aboveground biomass(AGB),consequently leading to changes in CH_(4) *** structural equation model showed that drought both in the early and middle growing stages enhanced CH_(4) uptake due to reduced soil water content(SWC),leading to a decrease in NO_(3)–-N and an increase in pmoA ***,drought in late growing stage primarily enhanced CH_(4) uptake only by decreasing *** results suggested that seasonal timing significantly contributed to regulate the impacts of extreme drought pathways and magnitudes on CH_(4) *** findings can provide substantial implications for understanding how extreme droughts affect CH_(4) uptake and improve the prediction of

关键词： extreme climate greenhouse gas methane methanotrophs soil inorganic nitrogen

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The Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia Pattern and Its Key Region in Winter in CMIP6 Model Simulations

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第12期40卷 2138-2153,I0002-I0006页

作者： Liang ZHAO Yunwen LIU Yihui DING Qingquan LI Wei DONG Xinyong SHEN Wei CHENG Haoxin YAO Ziniu XIAO State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmosphere Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Neijiang Meteorological Bureau Neijiang 641000China China Meteorological Administration National Climate CenterBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Geoscience Big Data and Deep Resource of Zhejiang Province School of Earth SciencesZhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310058China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China Beijing Institute of the Applied Meteorology Beijing 100029China

An enhanced Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia(WACE)pattern has been a notable feature in recent winters of the Northern ***,divergent results between model and observational studies of the WACE still *** study evaluates the performance of 39 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating the WACE pattern in winter of 1980-2014 and explores the key factors causing the differences in the simulation capability among the *** results show that the multimodel ensemble(MME)can better simulate the spatial distribution of the WACE pattern than most single *** that can/cannot simulate both the climatology and the standard deviation of the Eurasian winter surface air temperature well,especially the latter,usually can/cannot simulate the WACE pattern *** mainly results from the different abilities of the models to simulate the range and intensity of the warm anomaly in the Barents Sea-Kara seas(BKS)*** analysis shows that a good performance of the models in the BKS area is usually related to their ability to simulate location and persistence of Ural blocking(UB),which can transport heat to the BKS region,causing the warm Arctic,and strengthen the westerly trough downstream,cooling central ***,simulation of UB is key and significantly affects the model’s performance in simulating the WACE.

关键词： warm Arctic-cold Eurasia pattern Arctic amplification CMIP6 simulation evaluation extreme climate blocking highs

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