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A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade

Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2020年第3期33卷 743-759页

作者： SUN Yuying ZHANG Xun WANG Shouyang Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China Center for Forecasting Science Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China School of Economics and Management University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China

Analyzing the underlying characteristics of trade values movements has attracted much attention in the domestic ***,the proposed understanding of these characteristics is limited by the intrinsic complexity of the imports/*** economic systems are naturally organized by hierarchies,a novel hierarchical model is proposed in this paper to forecast China's foreign ***,the foreign trade data are disaggregated from perspectives of trading partners and trading products,forming two independent hierarchical models with total exports and imports as target ***,a bottom-up strategy is *** bottom time series are modelled by corresponding control variables according to trading *** for bottom time series are then combined to generate initial forecasts for total exports and ***,forecasts for total imports and exports from the two hierarchical models,plus a single VECM model are combined to generate final *** experiments show that this proposed forecasting model approach significantly outperforms benchmark models and produces consistent forecasts for both total imports and exports or detailed items,which helps a lot for analyzing future trading structure evolution and making foreign trade policies.

关键词： Decomposed and combined models exports and imports forecasts hierarchy trade structure

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