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Analysis and predication of tuberculosis registration rates in Henan Province, China: an exponential smoothing model study

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2020年第4期9卷 166-166页

作者： Yan-Qiu Zhang Xin-Xu Li Wei-Bin Li Jian-Guo Jiang Guo-Long Zhang Yan Zhuang Ji-Ying Xu Jie Shi Ding-Yong Sun Henan Center for Disease Control and Prevention Zhengzhou450016P.R.China Center for Drug Evaluation National Medical Products AdministrationBeijing100022P.R.China Kaifeng Municipal Health Commission Kaifeng475000P.R.China

Background The World Health Organization End TB Strategy meant that compared with 2015 baseline,the reduction in pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)incidence should be 20 and 50%in 2020 and 2025,*** case number of PTB in China accounted for 9%of the global total in 2018,which ranked the second high in the *** 2007 to 2019,854672 active PTB cases were registered and treated in Henan Province,*** study was to assess whether the WHO milestones could be achieved in Henan *** The active PTB numbers in Henan Province from 2007 to 2019,registered in Chinese Tuberculosis Information Management System were analyzed to predict the active PTB registration rates in 2020 and 2025,which is conductive to early response measures to ensure the achievement of the WHO *** time series model was created by monthly active PTB registration rates from 2007 to 2016,and the optimal model was verified by data from 2017 to *** Ljung-Box Q statistic was used to evaluate the *** statistically significant level isα=*** active PTB registration rates and 95%confidence interval(CI)from 2020 to 2025 were *** High active PTB registration rates in March,April,May and June showed the seasonal *** exponential smoothing winter’s multiplication model was selected as the best-fitting *** predicted values were approximately consistent with the observed ones from 2017 to *** annual active PTB registration rates were predicted as 49.1(95%CI:36.2–62.0)per 100000 population and 34.4(95%CI:18.6–50.2)per 100000 population in 2020 and 2025,*** with the active PTB registration rate in 2015,the reduction will reach 23.7%(95%CI,3.2–44.1%)and 46.8%(95%CI,21.4–72.1%)in 2020 and 2025,*** The high active PTB registration rates in spring and early summer indicate that high risk of tuberculosis infection in late autumn and winter in Henan *** regard to the CI,the first milest

关键词： Active pulmonary tuberculosis Registration rate Prediction exponential smoothing model Seasonality

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Influencing Factors and Prediction of Risk of Returning to Ecological Poverty in Liupan Mountain Region,China

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Chinese Geographical Science 2024年第3期34卷 420-435页

作者： CUI Yunxia LIU Xiaopeng JIANG Chunmei TIAN Rujun NIU Qingrui School of Geography and Planning Ningxia UniversityYinchuan 750021China Key Laboratory(China-Arab)of Resource Evaluation and Environmental Regulation of Arid Region in Ningxia Yinchuan 750021China

China has resolved its overall regional poverty in 2020 by attaining moderate societal *** country has entered a new development stage designed to achieve its second centenary ***,ecological fragility and risk susceptibility have increased the risk of returning to ecological *** this paper,the Liupan Mountain Region of China was used as a case study,and the counties were used as the scale to reveal the spatiotempora differentiation and influcing factors of the risk of returning to poverty in study *** indicator data for returning to ecological poverty from 2011-2020 were collected and summarized in three dimensions:ecological,economic and *** autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)time series and exponential smoothing method(ES)were used to predict the multidimensional indicators of returning to ecological poverty for 61 counties(districts)in the Liupan Mountain Region for *** back propagation neural network(BPNN)and geographic information system(GIS)were used to generate the spatial distribution and time variation for the index of the risk of returning to ecological poverty(RREP index).The results show that 1)ecological factors were the main factors in the risk of returning to ecological poverty in Liupan Mountain Region.2)The RREP index for the 61 counties(districts)exhibited a downward trend from *** RREP index declined more in medium-and high-risk areas than in low-risk *** 2021 to 2025,the RREP index exhibited a slight downward *** 2026 to2030,the RREP index was expected to decline faster,especially from 2029-2030.3)Based on the RREP index,it can be roughly divided into three types,namely,the high-risk areas,the medium-risk areas,and the low-risk *** natural resource conditions in lowrisk areas of returning to ecological poverty,were better than those in medium-and high-risk areas.

关键词： risk of returning to ecological poverty autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA) exponential smoothing model back propagation neural network(BPNN) Liupan Mountain Region,China

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Forecasting Stock Prices with an Integrated Approach Combining ARIMA and Machine Learning Techniques ARIMAML

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Journal of Computer and Communications 2023年第8期11卷 58-70页

作者： Ali Abdulhafidh Ibrahim Bilal N. Saeed Marwa A. Fadil Department of Economics of Banking Management Al-Nahrain University Baghdad Iraq

Stock market prediction has long been an area of interest for investors, traders, and researchers alike. Accurate forecasting of stock prices is crucial for financial decision-making and risk management. This paper presents a novel approach to predict stock prices by integrating Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing and Machine Learning (ML) techniques. Our study aims to enhance the predictive accuracy of stock price forecasting, which can significantly impact investment strategies and economic growth in this research paper implement the ARIMAML proposed method to predict the stock prices for Investment Bank of Iraq.

关键词： Stock Prediction ARIMA model exponential smoothing model Machine Learning ARIMAML model

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