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probability Distribution Characteristics of Strong Nonlinear Waves Under Typhoon Conditions in the Northern South China Sea

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2024年第3期23卷 583-593页

作者： GONG Yijie XIE Botao FU Dianfu WANG Zhifeng PANG Liang College of Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China CNOOC Research Institute Ltd. Beijing 100028China

The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states. The model, integrating the ST6 source term, is validated against observed data, demonstrating its credibility. The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown, and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics. The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas. The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, and freak waves exist. The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series. The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed. The results show that with an increase in the platform area, the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases.

关键词： strong nonlinear wave typhoon wave series probability distribution model exceedance probability

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The Relationship Among Bedrock Seismic Ground Motion Parameters with Different exceedance Probabilities in the Panxi Area

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Earthquake Research in China 2003年第1期17卷 63-72页

作者： Lei JianchengSeismological Bureau of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610041, China Seismological Bureau of Sichuan Province Chengdu 610041 China

Based on the calculation of the bedrock effective peak acceleration (EPA) zoning map in the Panxi area, the ratios of EPA with exceedance probabilities of 63%, 5%, 3%, 2% and 1% over 50 years to that of 10% in 50 years are 0.302, 1.30, 1.55, 1.76 and 2.14, respectively. The seismic effect will be conservative and safe if taking this zoning map as the earthquake resistant fortification level and following the relevant rules of the Code for Seismic Design of Buildings (GBJ11 89) to calculate the seismic effect. Furthermore, the main factors that influence the A10/A63 ratios have been found to be the attenuation relationship of seismic ground motion, the division of seismic potential source regions and the seismicity parameters. These achievements are helpful to the spreading and applying of the zoning map.

关键词： exceedance probability Bedrock seismic ground motion parameter Ratio

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维普期刊数据库

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Morphogenetic-Weighted Updating Algorithm and its Application in Updating Probabilistic Risk of Typhoon Rainstorms

Morphogenetic-Weighted Updating Algorithm and its Applicatio...

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第三届风险分析与危机反应国际学术研讨会

作者： Germano Resconi Catholic University Via Trieste 17 Brescia Italy

In this paper, we proposed Morphogenetic-Weighted Updating Algorithm to update probabilistic risk without original observations based on Morphogenetic System Theory （MST）. Without the original observations, both the original exceedance probability curve and the new exceedance probability curve will be projected into the same mathematical space which is the context in MST. After the "Write" operation and "Read" operation, the internal sources and the projections of the projected exceedance probability curves can be computed. The context could store the information hidden in the exceedance probability curves and provided a platform to update the results of risk assessment without original observations. Through updating the probabilistic risk of typhoon rainstorms occurred in Guangdong Province, the algorithm was illustrated. Comparing with the updated results by combining the new observations with the original observations, the proposed algorithm can improve the updating behavior. This case shows that morphogenetic-weighted updating algorithm can update probabilistic risk of natural disasters satisfactorily.

关键词： typhoon rainstorms exceedance probability probabilistic risk morphogenetic system projection update

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