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evaluation and scenario simulation for forest ecological security in China

Journal of Forestry Research 2019年第5期30卷 1651-1666页

作者： Qin Zhang Guangyu Wang Feng Mi Xuanchang Zhang Lianzhen Xu Yufang Zhang Xiaoli Jiang School of Economics and Management Beijing Forestry UniversityBeijing 100083People’s Republic of China Department of Forest Resources Management University of British ColumbiaVancouverBCCanada Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of ScienceUrumqi 830011People’s Republic of China Jiangle State-Owned Forest Farm Sanming 353300People’s Republic of China

Continuously growing populations and rapid economic development have led to the excessive use of forest resources,and the forest ecosystem is threatened.In response,forest ecological security(FES)has attracted attention.In this study,an integrated dynamic simulation model was constructed using the system dynamic method,and it was used to evaluate the FES in China from 1999 to 2014.A scenario analysis was then used to evaluate the changes in the FES under five forestry policy scenarios for the 2015–2050 period,including the baseline,afforestation policy,harvesting policies,management policy,investment policy,and a policy mix.The results showed that the evaluation values of the FES increased during the period from 1999 to 2002,the period from 2004 to 2010 and the year 2014,and they decreased in 2003 and during the period from 2011 to 2013.During the 2015–2050 simulation period,the FES improved continuously.In particular,China would enter a new stage when the economic systems,social systems and ecosystems were in harmony after 2040.To improve the FES and the current status of the FES,a scenario analysis showed the most suitable scenario to be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2020 and Scenario 2 from 2021 to 2050.To relieve pressure,the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2040 and from 2046 to 2050,and the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 4 for 2041–2045.A policy mix(Scenario 5)would be most efficient under current conditions,while the effects of all the benefits of the forestry policies would weaken over the long term.The integrated method can be regarded as a decision support tool to help policy makers understand FES and promulgate a reasonable forestry policy.

关键词： Dynamic change trend Forest ecological security Integrated evaluation method System dynamic model Policy simulation

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evaluation of model checkers by verifying message passing programs

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Science China(Information Sciences) 2019年第10期62卷 6-30页

作者： Weijiang HONG Zhenbang CHEN Hengbiao YU Ji WANG College of Computer National University of Defense Technology State Key Laboratory of High Performance Computing National University of Defense Technology

Benchmarks and evaluation are important for the development of techniques and tools. Studies regarding evaluation of model checkers by large-scale benchmarks are few. The lack of such studies is mainly because of the language difference of existing model checkers and the requirement of intensive labor in building models. In this study, we present a large-scale benchmark for evaluating model checkers whose inputs are concurrent models. The benchmark consists of 2318 models that are generated automatically from real-world message passing interface(MPI) programs. The complexities of the models have been inspected to be well distributed and suitable for evaluating model checkers. Based on the benchmark, we have evaluated five state-of-the-art model checkers, i.e., PAT, FDR, Spin, PRISM, and NuSMV, by verifying the deadlock freedom property. The evaluation results demonstrate the ability and performance difference of these model checkers in verifying message passing programs.

关键词： model checker evaluation benchmark MPI symbolic execution

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evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on binary index method and reduction index method

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Water Science and Engineering 2019年第4期12卷 263-273页

作者： Hong-yuan Fang Sheng-wei Gan Chen-ying Xue College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering Yangzhou UniversityYangzhou 225009China Taihu Lake Basin Hydrological and Water Resources Monitoring Center Wuxi 214024China

Based on the regional water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)evaluation principles and evaluation index system in the National Technical Outline of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Monitoring and Early Warning(hereafter referred to as the Technical Outline),this paper elaborates on the collection and sorting of the basic data of water resources conditions,water resources development and utilization status,social and economic development in basins,analysis and examination of integrity,consistency,normativeness,and rationality of the basic data,and the necessity of WRCC evaluation.This paper also describes the technique of evaluating the WRCC in prefecture-level cities and city-level administrative divisions in the District of the Taihu Lake Basin,which is composed of the Taihu Lake Basin and the Southeastern River Basin.The evaluation process combines the binary index evaluation method and reduction index evaluation method.The former,recommended by the Technical Outline,uses the total water use and the amount of exploited groundwater as evaluation indices,showing stronger operability,while the latter is developed by simplifying and optimizing the comprehensive index system with greater systematicness and completeness.The mutual validation and adjustment of the results of the above-mentioned two evaluation methods indicate that the WRCC of the District of the Taihu Lake Basin is overloaded in general because some prefecture-level cities and city-level administrative divisions in the Taihu Lake Basin and the Southeastern River Basin are in a severely overloaded state.In order to explain this conclusion,this paper analyzes the causes of WRCC overloading from the aspects of basin water environment,water resources development and utilization,water resources regulation and control ability,water resources utilization efficiency,and water resources management.

关键词： Water resources carrying capacity(WRCC) evaluation Binary index method Reduction index method Prefecture-level cities and city-level administrative divisions

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evaluation of ecosystem services of Chinese pine forests in China

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Science China(Life Sciences) 2008年第7期51卷 662-666,668-670页

作者： GUO Hao ,WANG Bing,MA XiangQian,ZHAO GuangDong&LI ShaoNing Research Institute of Forest Ecology Environment and Protection of CAF,Key Laboratory of Forest Ecological Environment of State Forestry Administration,Beijing 100091,China Research Institute of Forest Ecology Environment and Protection of CAF Key Laboratory of Forest Ecological Environment of State Forestry Administration Beijing China

evaluation of forest ecosystem services is a hot topic,both in China and at abroad,but it has not yet obtained a consistency of evaluation indicator systems and evaluation methods.Under the framework of evaluation criteria to be implemented for forest ecosystem services,years of consecutive observation data from Long Term Ecological Research Stations affiliated to Chinese Forest Ecosystem Research Network(CFERN),forest resource inventory and public data were applied to carry out a detailed and dynamic evaluation on the physical quantity and value of ecosystem services of Chinese pine forests in China.The results showed that the above services had the total value and unit value of 1144.9640 billion(1.1449640×10 12 )RMB and 52.074 thousand RMB per hectare per year,respectively during the 9th Five-year Plan(1996―2000),and of 1190.5461 billion RMB and 52.101 thousand RMB per hectare per year,respectively,during the 10th Five-year Plan(2001―2005).For Chinese pine forests,water conservation was 40.40 hundred million cubic meters annually,soil conservation was 67 million tons and C fixation 9 million tons annually,production of healthful negative ions was 1.96×10 20 , absorption of SO2 was 5.02 hundred million kilograms and dust-catching was 759.10 hundred million kilograms. Among the 15 provinces of China with Chinese pine forests,the biggest beneficiary from ecosystem services was Liaoning Province;while Hunan Province was the smallest beneficiary between the 9th Five-year Plan.

关键词： ecosystem services physical quantity value evaluation Chinese pine

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evaluation of the relationship between hepatocellular carcinoma location and transarterial chemoembolization efficacy

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2017年第35期23卷 6437-6447页

作者： Izumi Miki Satoru Murata Fumio Uchiyama Daisuke Yasui Tatsuo Ueda Fumie Sugihara Hidemasa Saito Hidenori Yamaguchi Ryusuke Murakami Chiaki Kawamoto Eiji Uchida Shin-ichiro Kumita Department of Radiology Center of Advanced MedicineNippon Medical School Department of Radiology Ebina-Sogo Hospital Department of Radiology Tamanagayama HospitalNippon Medical School Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Department of Internal MedicineNippon Medical School Department of Gastrointestinal and Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery Nippon Medical School

AIM To evaluate the relationship between the location of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) and the efficacy of transarterial chemoembolization(TACE).METHODS We evaluated 115 patients(127 nodules), excluding recurrent nodules, treated with TACE between January 2011 and June 2014. TACE efficacy was evaluated according to m RECIST. The HCC location coefficient was calculated as the distance from the central portal portion to the HCC center(mm)/liver diameter(mm) on multiplanar reconstruction images rendered(MPR) to visualize bifurcation of the right and left branches of the portal vein and HCC center. The HCC location coefficient was compared between complete response(CR) and non-CR groups in Child-Pugh grade A and B patients.RESULTS The median location coefficient of HCC among all nodules, the right lobe, and the medial segment was significantly higher in the CR group than in the non-CR group in the Child-Pugh grade A patients(0.82 vs 0.62, P 0.05). On the other hand, in the Child-Pugh grade B patients, the HCC median location coefficient in each lobe and segment was not significantly different between in the CR and in the non-CR groups.CONCLUSION Improved TACE efficacy may be obtained for HCC in the peripheral zone of the right lobe and the medial segment in Child-Pugh grade A patients.

关键词： Hepatocellular carcinoma location Transarterial chemoembolization efficacy Child-Pugh Modified response evaluation criteria in solid tumors Central zone Peripheral zone

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evaluation of the SMOS and SMAP soil moisture products under different vegetation types against two sparse in situ networks over arid mountainous watersheds, Northwest China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2019年第4期62卷 703-718页

作者： Lanhui ZHANG Chansheng HE Mingmin ZHANG Yi ZHU Key Laboratory of West China’s Environmental System (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental Sciences Lanzhou University Department of Geography Western Michigan University

Assessment of the suitability of satellite soil moisture products at large scales is urgently needed for numerous climatic and hydrological researches, particularly in arid mountainous watersheds where soil moisture plays a key role in landatmosphere exchanges. This study presents evaluation of the SMOS(L2) and SMAP(L2_P_E and L2_P) products against ground-based observations from the Upstream of the Heihe River Watershed in situ Soil Moisture Network(UHRWSMN) and the Ecological and Hydrological Wireless Sensor Network(EHWSN) over arid high mountainous watersheds, Northwest China.Results show that all the three products are reliable in catching the temporal trend of the in situ observations at both point and watershed scales in the study area. Due to the uncertainty in brightness temperature and the underestimation of effective temperature, the SMOS L2 product and both the SMAP L2 products show "dry bias" in the high, cold mountainous area. Because of the more accurate brightness temperature observations viewing at a constant angle and more suitable estimations of single scattering albedo and optical depth, both the SMAP L2 products performed significantly better than the SMOS product.Moreover, comparing with station density of in situ network, station representation is much more important in the evaluation of the satellite soil moisture products. Based on our analysis, we propose the following suggestions for improvement of the SMOS and SMAP product suitability in the mountainous areas: further optimization of effective temperature; revision of the retrieval algorithm of the SMOS mission to reduce the topographic impacts; and, careful selection of in situ observation stations for better representation of in situ network in future evaluations. All these improvements would lead to better applicability of the SMOS and SMAP products for soil moisture estimation to the high elevation and topographically complex mountainous areas in arid regions.

关键词： SMOS SMAP evaluation Different vegetation types Sparse in situ networks Arid mountainous watershed

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evaluation of Fractionation of Softwood Pulp in a Cylindrical Hydrocyclone

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Chinese Journal of Chemical Engineering 2006年第4期14卷 537-541页

作者：卢晓江刘世杰 Department of Process Equipment Tianjin University of Science and Technology Tianjin 300222 China Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering University of Alberta Edmonton TG6 2G6 Canada

Pulp fiber length characterization is addressed in this article. It is suggested that the proposed separation index H(L) is a viable index to the fiber fractionation performance for evaluating hydrocyclones. Fractionation of softwood (coniferous wood) bleached chemithermomechanical pulp (BCTMP) fiber was carried out with a cylindrical hydrocyclone. Pulp fiber length characteristics in different streams were examined using the fiber quality analyzer (FQA), and the cumulative fiber length fraction, the fiber length fraction density function and the separation index H(L) for different streams were obtained. It is found that H(L) is very useful for characterizing the fiber fractionation performance by indicating the separation capacity of hydrocyclone for individual subgroup of fibers in different streams under different operation conditions. Results of H(L) show that there exists a critical fiber length. A higher proportion of fibers longer than the critical fiber length is in the overflow stream, and a higher proportion of fibers shorter than the critical fiber length in the underflow stream. The data obtained from FQA suggest that the split ratio is the most significant parameter for fiber fractionation performance, which is the best when the split ratio is in the range between 0.14 and 0.2. The effect of feed rate on fiber fractionation performance is weak.

关键词： evaluation fiber fractionation hydrocyclone

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evaluation of Heavy Rainfall Model Forecasts over the Korean Peninsula Using Different Physical Parameterization Schemes and Horizontal Resolution

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2011年第6期28卷 1233-1245页

作者： Jeong-Gyun PARK Dong-Kyou LEE Atmospheric Sciences Program School of Earth and Environmental Sciences Seoul National University Seoul 151-747 Korea

In this study, the accuracy of a Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model （PSU/NCAR MM5） for predicting heavy summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula was investigated. A total of 1800 simulations were performed using this model for 30 heavy rainfall events employing four cumulus parameterization schemes （CPS）, two grid-scale resolvable precipitation schemes （GRS）, and two planetary boundary layer （PBL） schemes in three model resolutions （90 km, 30 km, and 10 km）. The heavy rainfall events were mesoscale convective systems developed under the influence of mid-latitude baroclinic systems with low-level moisture transport from the ocean. The predictive accuracy for maximum rainfall was approximately 80% for 10-km resolution and was 60% for 30-km resolution. The predictive accuracy for rainfall position extended to ～150 km from the observed position for both resolutions. Simulated rainfall was most sensitive to CPS, then to PBL schemes, and then to GRS. In general, the Grell （GR） scheme and the Anthes and Kuo （AK） scheme showed a better prediction capability for heavy rainfall than did the Betts-Miller （BM） scheme and the Kain-Fritsch （KF） scheme. The GR scheme also performed well in the 24-h and 12-h precipitation predictions： the parameterized convective rainfall in GR is directly related to synoptic-scale forcing. The models without CPS performed better for rainfall amounts but worse for rainfall position than those with CPS. The MM5 model demonstrated substantial predictive capacity using synoptic-scale initial conditions and lateral boundary data because heavy summer rainfall in Korea occurs in a strong synoptic-scale environment.

关键词： heavy rainfall mesoscale convection mesoscale model evaluation convective parameterization

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evaluation of Simulated CO_2 Concentrations from the CarbonTracker-Asia Model Using In-situ Observations over East Asia for 2009–2013

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第6期36卷 603-613页

作者： Samuel Takele KENEA Young-Suk OH Jae-Sang RHEE Tae-Young GOO Young-Hwa BYUN Shanlan LI Lev D.LABZOVSKII Haeyoung LEE Robert F.BANKS Climate Research Division National Institute of Meteorological Sciences Environmental Meteorology Research Division National Institute of Meteorological Sciences Meteorology Department Delta Air LinesInc.

The CarbonTracker(CT) model has been used in previous studies for understanding and predicting the sources, sinks, and dynamics that govern the distribution of atmospheric CO_2 at varying ranges of spatial and temporal scales. However, there are still challenges for reproducing accurate model-simulated CO_2 concentrations close to the surface, typically associated with high spatial heterogeneity and land cover. In the present study, we evaluated the performance of nested-grid CT model simulations of CO_2 based on the CT2016 version through comparison with in-situ observations over East Asia covering the period 2009–13. We selected sites located in coastal, remote, inland, and mountain areas. The results are presented at diurnal and seasonal time periods. At target stations, model agreement with in-situ observations was varied in capturing the diurnal cycle. Overall, biases were less than 6.3 ppm on an all-hourly mean basis, and this was further reduced to a maximum of 4.6 ppm when considering only the daytime. For instance, at Anmyeondo, a small bias was obtained in winter, on the order of 0.2 ppm. The model revealed a diurnal amplitude of CO_2 that was nearly flat in winter at Gosan and Anmyeondo stations, while slightly overestimated in the summertime. The model's performance in reproducing the diurnal cycle remains a challenge and requires improvement. The model showed better agreement with the observations in capturing the seasonal variations of CO_2 during daytime at most sites, with a correlation coefficient ranging from 0.70 to 0.99. Also, model biases were within-0.3 and 1.3 ppm, except for inland stations(7.7 ppm).

关键词： model evaluation in-situ observations CarbonTracker East Asia

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evaluation of the Biodiversity Conservation Function in Liaohe Delta Wetland,Northeastern China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第4期34卷 798-805页

作者： Wenying YU Ruipeng JI Xiuzhen HAN Long CHEN Rui FENG Jinwen WU Yushu ZHANG Institute of Atmospheric Environment China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang 110166 Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Disasters of Liaoning Province Shenyang 110166 National Satellite Meteorological Center Beijing 100081 Panjin Meteorological Bureau Panjin 124010

The scientific evaluation of the wetland biodiversity conservation function is the basis of balanced wetland protection and development. Our research sought to provide references for the protection of wetland ecological environments as well as the related planning and management policies. The study established a fitting model for evaluating the biodiversity conservation function in the Liaohe Delta, northeastern China. The new model, the Wetland Biodiversity Conservation Indicator(WBCI), was with four input factors, including the vegetation coverage(VC), habitat suitability index(HI), land use and land cover(LULC) index(LI), and threat factor index(TI) of the LULC type. The values assigned to HI and TI were based on Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(In VEST)habitat quality models. The weights of all the factors in WBCI were valued with the Principal Component Analysis(PCA). We evaluated the wetland biodiversity conservation function of Panjin, Liaohe Delta, China, by using the WBCI model based on Gaofen-1(GF-1) satellite data in 2018, and the result was verified with In VEST and other models. It showed that the output map was similar to that of In VEST, with the higher-quality habitat including the wetland, tidal flat, water body, and forest, as well as the lower-quality land use types including the paddy field, crop field, construction land, and land used by traffic. The wetland biodiversity conservation function was better in areas less affected by human disturbance, with very abundant species and good-quality habitat. It was poor in areas impacted by more frequent human activities such as the land cultivation, housing, and traffic, which led to the landscape fragmentation. The WBCI model provided a more accurate reflection of the bird distribution than the In VEST model. The WBCI model was able to reflect the difference in quality of each habitat grade, in contrast to the net primary productivity(NPP) method and species distribution models(SDMs). The new model was, therefore, simpler and

关键词： wetland biodiversity conservation function habitat quality evaluation

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