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Application of Backward Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent Method to Assessing the Relative Impacts of Initial Condition and Model errors on Local Backward Predictability

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第9期38卷 1486-1496页

作者： Xuan LI Jie FENG Ruiqiang DING Jianping LI Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System(FDOMES)/Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate Pilot Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(QNLM)Qingdao 266237China

Initial condition and model errors both contribute to the loss of atmospheric ***,it remains debatable which type of error has the larger impact on the prediction lead time of specific *** this study,we perform a theoretical study to investigate the relative effects of initial condition and model errors on local prediction lead time of given states in the Lorenz *** the backward nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method,the prediction lead time,also called local backward predictability limit(LBPL),of given states induced by the two types of errors can be quantitatively *** show that the structure of the Lorenz attractor leads to a layered distribution of LBPLs of *** an individual circular orbit,the LBPLs are roughly the same,whereas they are different on different *** spatial distributions of LBPLs show that the relative effects of initial condition and model errors on local backward predictability depend on the locations of given states on the dynamical trajectory and the error *** the error magnitude is fixed,the differences between the LBPLs vary with the locations of given *** larger differences are mainly located on the inner trajectories of *** the error magnitudes are different,the dissimilarities in LBPLs are diverse for the same given state.

关键词： Initial condition model errors error magnitude error location LBPL

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EMMD-Prony approach for dynamic validation of simulation models

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Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics 2015年第1期26卷 172-181页

作者： Yongxing Chen Xiaoyan Wu Xiangwei Bu Ruiyang Bai Air and Missile Defense College Air Force Engineering University

Model validation and updating is critical to model credibility growth. In order to assess model credibility quantitatively and locate model error precisely, a new dynamic validation method based on extremum field mean mode decomposition（EMMD） and the Prony method is proposed in this paper. Firstly, complex dynamic responses from models and real systems are processed into stationary components by EMMD. These components always have definite physical meanings which can be the evidence about rough model error location. Secondly, the Prony method is applied to identify the features of each EMMD component. Amplitude similarity, frequency similarity, damping similarity and phase similarity are defined to describe the similarity of dynamic *** quantitative validation metrics are obtained based on the improved entropy weight and energy proportion. Precise model error location is realized based on the physical meanings of these features. The application of this method in aircraft controller design provides evidence about its feasibility and usability.

关键词： dynamic validation extremum field mean mode decomposition(EMMD) Prony method error location model updating

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