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第三十九届中国控制会议

作者： Ming Liu Jing Ning Yurui Du School of Economics and Management Nanjing University of Science and Technology

When an unexpected epidemic outbreaks, a scientifically depicting of the evolution trajectory is a prerequisite for implementing various emergency response measures. Traditionally, parameters of the epidemic models, whether system dynamics models or time series regression models, are preset and fixed in advance. This poses the accuracy of forecasting declining with time. In this paper, we propose two modified epidemic models with parameters updating based on *** main contribution of this study is to continuously update the parameters with the actually collected epidemic data, in an effort to ensure that the forecasting result can be more close to the actual trajectory. Taking the Ebola outbreak in West Africa in 2014-2016 as our example. The test results demonstrate that the proposed two methods in this study are good at epidemic forecasting. Moreover, the modified system dynamics model is suitable for the medium and long-term forecasting while the modified ARIMA model is better at the short-term estimating.

关键词： epidemic modelling system dynamics ARIMA data-driven parameter updating

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modelling the spread of sexually transmitted diseases on scale-free networks

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Chinese Physics B 2009年第6期18卷 2115-2120页

作者：刘茂省阮炯 School of Mathematical Sciences Fudan University Department of Mathematics North University of China School of Mathematical Sciences Fudan University

In this paper a new model for the spread of sexually transmitted diseases （STDs） is presented. The dynamic behaviors of the model on a heterogenons scale-free （SF） network are considered, where the absence of a threshold on the SF network is demonstrated, and the stability of the disease-free equilibrium is obtained. Three immunization strategies, uniform immunization, proportional immunization and targeted immunization, are applied in this model. Analytical and simulated results are given to show that the proportional immunization strategy in the model is effective on SF networks.

关键词： epidemic modelling scale-free networks immunization STDs spreading

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Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks:COVID-19 as an example

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Infectious Disease modelling 2020年第1期5卷 409-441页

作者： Christopher E.Overton Helena B.Stage Shazaad Ahmad Jacob Curran-Sebastian Paul Dark Rajenki Das Elizabeth Fearon Timothy Felton Martyn Fyles Nick Gent Ian Hall Thomas House Hugo Lewkowicz Xiaoxi Pang Lorenzo Pellis Robert Sawko Andrew Ustianowski Bindu Vekaria Luke Webb Department of Mathematics University of ManchesterUK IBM Research Hartree CentreSciTech DaresburyUK Department of Global Health and Development London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineUK Emergency Response Department Public Health EnglandUK Division of Infection Immunity and Respiratory MedicineNIHR Biomedical Research CentreUniversity of ManchesterUK Department of Virology Manchester Medical Microbiology PartnershipManchester Foundation TrustUK Regional Infectious Diseases Unit North Manchester General HospitalUK School of Medical Sciences University of ManchesterUK Intensive Care Unit Wythenshawe HospitalManchester University NHS Foundation TrustUK Department of Health Sciences University of ManchesterUK Department of Mathematical Sciences University of LiverpoolUK The Alan Turing Institute UK Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre UK Critical Care Unit Salford Royal HospitalNorthern Care Alliance NHS GroupUK

During an infectious disease outbreak,biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing *** by the ongoing response to COVID-19,we provide a toolkit of statistical and mathematical models beyond the simple SIR-type differential equation models for analysing the early stages of an outbreak and assessing *** particular,we focus on parameter estimation in the presence of known biases in the data,and the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions in enclosed subpopulations,such as households and care *** illustrate these methods by applying them to the COVID-19 pandemic.

关键词： COVID-19 epidemic modelling Parameter estimation Outbreak Bias Intervention

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The Game-Theoretical Model of Using Insecticide-Treated Bed-Nets to Fight Malaria

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Applied Mathematics 2016年第9期7卷 852-860页

作者： Mark Broom Jan Rychtář Tracy Spears-Gill Department of Mathematics City University London Northampton Square London UK Department of Mathematics and Statistics The University of North Carolina at Greensboro Greensboro USA Department of Biostatistics University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Chapel Hill USA

Malaria infection is a major problem in many countries. The use of the Insecticide-Treated Bed-Nets (ITNs) has been shown to significantly reduce the number of malaria infections;however, the effectiveness is often jeopardized by improper handling or human behavior such as inconsistent usage. In this paper, we present a game-theoretical model for ITN usage in communities with malaria infections. We show that it is in the individual’s self interest to use the ITNs as long as the malaria is present in the community. Such an optimal ITN usage will significantly decrease the malaria prevalence and under some conditions may even lead to complete eradication of the disease.

关键词： Game Theory Malaria Prevention Optimal Strategy epidemic modelling SIS Model

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