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epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

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Chinese Physics B 2009年第8期18卷 3309-3317页

作者：史红静段志生陈关荣李嵘 State Key Laboratory for Turbulence and Complex Systems Department of Mechanics and Aerospace EngineeringCollege of EngineeringPeking University Department of Electronic Engineering City University of Hong Kong

In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible （SIS） model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns （the recovered individuals have or have not immunity） on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine＇s effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

关键词： complex network disease spreading SIS model epidemic modeling vaccination epidemic threshold

A spatial epidemic model with a moving boundary

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 1046-1060页

作者： Qiao Zhuang Jin Wang Department of Mathematics University of Tennessee at ChattanoogaChattanoogaTN37403USA Department of Mathematical Sciences Worcester Polytechnic InstituteMA 01609USA

We present a new mathematical model to investigate the spatial spread of an infectious *** model consists of a nonlinear PDE system with an unknown velocity field,defined on an epidemic domain that changes with *** moving boundary of the domain represents the wavefront of the *** conduct an equilibrium analysis to the simplified models represented by ODE *** also perform a numerical study on the original PDE system for a range of scenarios,including one under a realistic epidemic setting.

关键词： epidemic modeling Equilibrium analysis Spatial dynamics

Early estimation of the number of hidden HIV infected subjects: An extended Kalman filter approach

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第2期8卷 341-355页

作者： Paolo Di Giamberardino Daniela Iacoviello Dept.of Computer Control and Management EngineeringSapienzaUniversity of RomeVia Ariosto 2500185RomeItaly

In the last decades several epidemic emergencies have been affecting the world,influencing the social relationships,the economics and the *** particular,starting in the early 080,the Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome,AIDS,is representing one of the most worrying sanitary emergency,that has caused up to now more than 25 million of dead *** infection is caused by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus,HIV,that may be transmitted by body fluids;therefore with wise behaviours the epidemic spread could rapidly be *** sanitary emergency is peculiar for the long incubation time:it can reach even 10 years,a long period in which the individual can unconsciously infect other *** identification of the number of infected unaware people,mandatory to define suitable containment measures,is here obtained by using the extended Kalman filter applied to a noisy model in which,reasonably,only the number of infected diagnosed patients is *** simulations and real data analysis support the effectiveness of the approach.

关键词： epidemic modeling Infection spread HIV-AIDS Extended Kalman filter

Optimal therapy for HIV infection containment and virions inhibition

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第1期9卷 10-26页

作者： Paolo Di Giamberardino Daniela Iacoviello Muhammad Zubair Dept.of Computer Control and Management EngineeringSapienzaUniversity of RomeVia Ariosto 2500185RomeItaly

Prevention and early diagnosis are the best and most effective ways for defeating *** is still no vaccine,but treatments with antiretroviral drugs are now available which,in many cases,allow the infection to become ***,research has highlighted side effects of these drugs and the fact that a flare-up of the infection occurs if the therapy is *** recent years,the presence of virus reserves located in various parts of the body,including the brain,has been *** possibility of controlling the infection of healthy cells and of interrupting the proliferation of virions inside the brain has been studied,proposing optimal control strategies.

关键词： epidemic modeling HIV-AIDS Optimal control

A Novel epidemic Model Coupling the Infectious Disease with Awareness Diffusion on Multiplex Networks

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A Novel Epidemic Model Coupling the Infectious Disease with ...

A model simulation on the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant containment in Beijing,China

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作者： Chunyuan Zheng Zhishuang Wang Chengyi Xia Tianjin Key Laboratory of Intelligence Computing and Novel Software Technology Tianjin University of Technology Key Laboratory of Computer Vision and System (Ministry of Education) Tianjin University of Technology IEEE

In this paper, we propose a two-layered multiplex network model to characterize the coupling between the infectious disease spreading and disease-related information or awareness diffusion, in which one layer is used to denote the contact network for the disease spreading and the other one represents the propagation of information about the infectious diseases. Meanwhile, the topology between two-layered networks is distinct although each node can appear simultaneously on two networks or the mapping mode between network nodes is one-to-one. Through the microscopic Markov chain approach（MMCA）, we build the probability transition tree among 6 possible states and the corresponding dynamical equations. After that, we analytically derive the epidemic threshold by the MMCA method, which has been correlated with the network topology, the information diffusion mechanism and the coupling properties between two kinds of spreading dynamics. Finally, we perform extensive numerical simulations to demonstrate the analytical predictions, and in particular we find that self perception can greatly reduce the disease outbreaks. Current results are helpful to deeply understand the spreading behaviors among the real-world population.

关键词： epidemic modeling Disease Spreading Awareness Diffusion Multiplex Networks

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Intelligent Medicine 2023年第1期3卷 10-15页

作者： Shihao Liang Tianhong Jiang Zengtao Jiao l Zhengyuan Zhou Yidu Cloud Technology Inc Beijing 100089China Changshu Center for Disease Control and Prevention Jiangsu 215501China

Objective:The Omicron variant of SARS-COV-2 is replacing previously circulating variants around the world in *** outbreaks of the Omicron variant into China have posed a concern how to properly response to battle against evolving coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19).Methods:Based on the epidemic data from website announced by Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention for the recent outbreak in Beijing from April 22nd to June 8th in 2022,we developed a modified SEPIR model to mathematically simulate the customized dynamic COVID-zero strategy and project transmissions of the Omicron *** demonstrate the effectiveness of dynamic-changing policies deployment during this outbreak control,we modified the transmission rate into four parts according to policy-changing dates as April 22nd to May 2nd,May 3rd to 11st,May 12th to 21st,May 22nd to June 8th,and we adopted Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)to estimate different transmission *** we altered the timing and scaling of these measures used to understand the effectiveness of these policies on the Omicron ***:The estimated effective reproduction number of four parts were 1.75(95%CI 1.66-1.85),0.89(95%CI 0.79-0.99),1.15(95%CI 1.05-1.26)and 0.53(95%CI 0.48-0.60),*** the experiment,we found that till June 8th the cumulative cases would rise to 132,609(95%CI 59,667-250,639),73.39 times of observed cumulative cases number 1,807 if no policy were implemented on May 3rd,and would be 3,235(95%CI 1,909-4,954),increased by 79.03%if no policy were implemented on May 22nd.A 3-day delay of the implementation of policies would led to increase of cumulative cases by 58.28%and a 7-day delay would led to increase of cumulative cases by 187.00%.On the other hand,taking control measures 3 or 7 days in advance would result in merely 38.63%or 68.62%reduction of real cumulative *** if lockdown implemented 3 days before May 3rd,the cumulative cases would be 289(95%CI 211-378),reduced by 84%

关键词： COVID-19 Dynamic COVID-zero strategy Compartmental models epidemic modeling Prevention measures