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;orecasting industrial emissions： a monetary approach vs. a physical approach

Frontiers of environmental Science & Engineering 2012年第5期6卷 734-742页

作者： Yang DONG Yi LIU Jining CHEN Yebin DONG Benliang QU School of Environment Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Center for Strategic environmental Assessment Dalian Municipal Design and Research Institute of environmental Science Dalian 116002China

Forecasts of industrial emissions provide a basis for impact assessment and development planning. To date, most studies have assumed that industrial emissions are simply coupled to production value at a given stage of technical progress. It has been argued that the monetary method tends to overestimate pollution loads because it is highly influenced by market prices and fails to address spatial development schemes. This article develops a land use-based environmental performance index （L-EPI） that treats the industrial land areas as a dependent variable for pollution emissions. The basic assumption of the method is that at a planning level, industrial land use change can represent the change in industrial structure and production yield. This physical metric provides a connection between the state-of-the-art and potential impacts of future devel- opment and thus avoids the intrinsic pitfalls of the industrial Gross Domestic Product-based approach. Both methods were applied to examine future industrial emissions at the planning area of Dalian Municipality, North-west China, under a development scheme provided by the urban master plan. The results suggested that the L- EPI method is highly reliable and applicable for the estimation and explanation of the spatial variation associated with industrial emissions.

关键词： industrial emissions environmental perfor-mance index spatial planning industrial land use

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