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An Objective Approach to Generating Multi-Physics ensemble precipitation forecasts Based on the WRF Model

Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第3期34卷 601-620页

作者： Chenwei SHEN Qingyun DUAN Wei GONG Yanjun GAN Zhenhua DI Chen WANG Shiguang MIAO State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology–Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering and College of Hydrology&Water Resources Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 South China Botanical Garden Chinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510650 Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

Selecting proper parameterization scheme combinations for a particular application is of great interest to the Weather Research and forecasting(WRF)model *** study aims to develop an objective method for identifying a set of scheme combinations to form a multi-physics ensemble suitable for short-range precipitation forecasting in the Greater Beijing *** ensemble is created by using statistical techniques and some *** initial sample of 90 scheme combinations was first generated by using Latin hypercube sampling(LHS).Then,after several rounds of screening,a final ensemble of 40 combinations were *** ensemble forecasts generated for both the training and verification cases using these combinations were evaluated based on several verification metrics,including threat score(TS),Brier score(BS),relative operating characteristics(ROC),and ranked probability score(RPS).The results show that TS of the final ensemble improved by 9%-33%over that of the initial *** reliability was improved for rain≤10 mm day^-1,but decreased slightly for rain>10 mm day^-1 due to insufficient *** resolution remained about the *** final ensemble forecasts were better than that generated from randomly sampled scheme *** results suggest that the proposed approach is an effective way to select a multi-physics ensemble for generating accurate and reliable forecasts.

关键词： ensemble precipitation forecast Weather Research and forecasting(WRF)model multi-physics verification bootstrapping

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