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Energy Planning of Beijing Towards Low-carbon,Clean and Efficient Development in 2035

CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems 2024年第3期10卷 913-928页

作者： Chengzhou Li Ningling Wang Xiaohu Shen Yumeng Zhang Zhiping Yang Xiaofeng Tong François Maréchal Ligang Wang Yongping Yang Institute of Energy Power Innovation North China Electric Power UniversityBeijing 102206China School of Energy Power and Mechanical Engineering and National Research Center for Thermal Power Engineering and TechnologyNorth China Electric Power UniversityBeijing 102206China Industrial Process and Energy Systems Engineering Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in LausanneSionSwitzerland

Energy transition towards clean,efficient energy supply has been a common sense of the government and public in ***,lacking reasonable planning will lead to undisciplined development,resource waste,and excessive *** this context,this paper investigates potential pathways of Beijing energy transition towards a high-level low-carbon,clean and efficient energy system in 2035 with an extended energysocpe ***,based on available data,future energy demands are predicted by a newly proposed hybrid forecasting method,which combines the traditional regression model,grey model,and support vector machine model with an entropy-based weighted ***,the superstructure-based optimization model is employed to investigate the system configuration and operation strategy of the future Beijing energy ***,the uncertainty impact of electricity price,natural gas price,hydrogen price,and the capital expenditures of electrolyzer and steam methane reforming for hydrogen applications are *** forecasting results show that all walks of life will witness a continuously increasing energy demand in multiple sectors of Beijing towards *** planning results suggest that the imported electricity and natural gas will dominate the energy supply of Beijing in 2035 with a contribution of 86%of the energy resources consumption of 384 ***,the energy system presents a high end-use electrification level of 65%and high penetration of efficient technologies,which supply 119 TWh via combined heat and power,26 TWh via heat pump and 95 TWh via district heating *** energy use of various sectors of energy resources,technologies and end-use are closely *** will have an increased penetration in the private mobility sector,but the locally generated hydrogen is mainly from steam methane reforming technology.

关键词： Energy transition energy planning carbonneutral demand forecasting energyscope

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