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Evaluating the economic and Environmental impacts of a Global GMO Ban

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Journal of Environmental Protection 2016年第11期7卷 1522-1546页

作者： Harry Mahaffey Farzad Taheripour Wallace E. Tyner Cargill Kansas City USA Department of Agricultural economics Purdue University West Lafayette IN USA

The objective of this research is to assess the global economic and greenhouse gas emission impacts of banning GMO crops. This is done by modeling two counterfac-tual scenarios and evaluating them apart and in combination using a well-know Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, GTAP-BIO. The first scenario models the impact of a global GMO ban. The second scenario models the impact of increased GMO penetration. The focus is on the price and welfare impacts, and land use change greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with GMO technologies. Much of the prior work on the economic impacts of GMO technology has relied on a combination of partial equilibrium analysis and econometric techniques. However, CGE model-ling is a way of analyzing economy-wide impacts that take into account the linkages in the global economy. Here the goal is to contribute to the literature on the benefits of GMO technology by estimating the impacts on price, supply and welfare. Food price impacts range from an increase of 0.27% to 2.2%, depending on the region. Total welfare losses associated with loss of GMO technology total up to $9.75 bil-lion. The loss of GMO traits as an intensification technology has not only economic impacts, but also environmental ones. The full environmental analysis of GMO is not undertaken here. Rather we model the land use change owing to the loss of GMO traits and calculate the associated increase in GHG emissions. We predict a substan-tial increase in GHG emissions if GMO technology is banned.

关键词： GMO Crops Productivity Computable General Equilibrium economic impacts Land Use Change

Changes in Agricultural System as Farmers Adapt to economic-Social and Climatic Changes in the Min Upriver Rural Areas in Western Sichuan,Southwestern China

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Journal of Mountain Science 2015年第3期12卷 747-758页

作者： ZHANG Long-jiang TANG Ya LIU Ben-hong Department of Environment College of Architecture and EnvironmentSichuan University

Rapid economic growth in China has brought about great economic-social changes in rural areas, having considerable impact on the society in economy and environment. With a per capita possession of about 0.08 ha of cropland, Chinese farmers in rural areas adopt various ways in response to these changes in a bit to maintain their livelihood, wherein the agricultural system is facing one more options possible. To understand how rural communities have used different mechanisms to adapt to the economic and natural changes, we joined a survey in dry valleys of the Min upriver area under Maoxian county of western Sichuan province, southwestern China and visited the local people. Changes in the main crop cultivation have shown up an important means to keep up their household income. Farm households start seeking economic growth through diversified cultivating of cereal and economic crops in five lines, namely cereal, apple monoculture, apple and vegetables, plum and vegetables, mixed fruits and vegetables. These new lines mirror farmers' flexibility to cope with today's economic-social and climatic changes. The farming operation has changed all the more from a subsistence on grain to special agricultural products. economic reforms in the early 1980 s motivated theprogress first in conversion of production from grain to fruits, and the desire to increase family income turned out to be an impetus for the subsequent events. At present, more farmers moving out of the rural areas, uneasy availability of labor force, increased opportunity cost of labors and their wages, increased farm size, and the urgent demand for the agricultural labor force, all these combine into the trend of the agricultural system of China on facing further economic-social reforms and reconstruction of the countryside across China.

关键词： Agricultural system Climate change Farmers economic impacts Social change MinRiver

Optimizing air quality and health Co-benefits of mitigation technologies in China: An integrated assessment

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Environmental Science and Ecotechnology 2024年第6期22卷 206-214页

作者： Mengdan Zhao Yang Xie Meng Xu Zhixiong Weng Tatsuya Hanaoka Yuqiang Zhang Dan Tong School of economics and Management Beihang UniversityBeijing100191China School of Management Wuhan Institute of TechnologyWuhan430205China Institute of Circular Economy Beijing University of TechnologyBeijing100124China Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research National Institute for Environmental StudiesTsukuba3058506Japan Environment Research Institute Shandong UniversityQingdaoShandong266237China Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China

Carbon mitigation technologies lead to air quality improvement and health co-benefits,while the practical effects of the technologies are dependent on the energy composition,technological advancements,and economic *** China,mitigation technologies such as end-of-pipe treatment,renewable energy adoption,carbon capture and storage(CCS),and sector electrification demonstrate significant promise in meeting carbon reduction ***,the optimization of these technologies for maximum co-benefits remains ***,we employ an integrated assessment model(AIM/enduse,CAM-chem,IMED|HEL)to analyze air quality shifts and their corresponding health and economic impacts at the provincial level in China within the two-degree *** findings reveal that a combination of end-of-pipe technology,renewable energy utilization,and electrification yields the most promising results in air quality improvement,with a reduction of fine particulate matter(PM2.5)by−34.6μg m^(−3) and ozone by−18.3 ppb in 2050 compared to the reference *** contrast,CCS technology demonstrates comparatively modest improvements in air quality(−9.4μg m^(−3) for PM2.5 and−2.4 ppb for ozone)and cumulative premature deaths reduction(−3.4 million from 2010 to 2050)compared to the end-of-pipe ***,densely populated regions such as Henan,Hebei,Shandong,and Sichuan experience the most health and economic *** study aims to project effective future mitigation technologies and climate policies on air quality improvement and carbon ***,it seeks to delineate detailed provincial-level air pollution control strategies,offering valuable guidance for policymakers and stakeholders in pursuing sustainable and health-conscious environmental management.

关键词： Air pollution Mitigation technology2-Degree target Health co-benefits economic impacts

The economic impact of emission peaking control policies and China's sustainable development

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2014年第4期5卷 162-168页

作者： WANG Yi ZOU Le-Le Institute of Policy and Management Chinese Academy of Sciences

To achieve the goals of national sustainable development, the peaking control of CO2 emissions is pivotal, as well as other pollutants. In this paper, we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations. By analyzing the energy consumptions, coal consumptions, relating emissions and their impacts on GDP, we found that with the structure adjustment policy, the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53% to 48% and CO2 emissions will decrease by 11.3%-22.8% compared to the baseline scenario. With the energy intensity reduction policy, CO2 emissions will decrease by 33.3% in 2030 and 47.8% in 2050 than baseline scenario. Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects. In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control, the economic costs can not be ignored. The GDP will decrease by 2.96%-8.23% under different scenarios. Therefore, integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.

关键词： CO2 emission peak PM2.5 Policy scenario economic impacts Synergetic effects

Assessing the impact of tropical cyclones on economic sectors in Costa Rica,Central America

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2024年第3期13卷 196-207页

作者： Adolfo Quesada-Roman Hugo GHidalgo Eric JAlfaro Laboratorio de Geografía Física Escuela de GeografíaUniversidad de Costa RicaCosta Rica Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas(CIGEFI) Universidad de Costa RicaCosta Rica Escuela de Física Universidad de Costa RicaCosta Rica Centro de Investigacion en Matematica Pura y Aplicada(CIMPA) Universidad de Costa RicaCosta Rica Centro de Investigacion en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología(CIMAR) Universidad de Costa RicaCosta Rica

Tropical cyclones(TC)pose a persistent natural hazard to Costa *** to natural hazards,such as mass movements and floods,is compounded by a growing urban population and inadequate land use *** study conducted a comprehensive analysis of the economic impacts of TC of Costa Rica from Hurricane Joan in 1988 to Hurricane Eta in 2020,assessing the impact by municipality and economic sector using baseline information of the Ministry of National Planning and economic *** to the study,road infrastructure(933.8 US million),agriculture(280.5 US million),river rehabilitation(153.96 US million),housing 98.26(US million),and health(81.74 US million)were among the sectors most severely affected by TC over the past 30 *** Pacific basin municipalities in Costa Rica were found to be the most vulnerable,primarily due to the indirect impacts of *** study's results offer useful information on the economic sectors and municipalities that are most exposed from TC in Costa Rica and provide a replicable methodology for other regions and countries facing similar tropical phenomena.

关键词： Tropical cyclones Natural hazards economic impacts Municipality impact Developing countries Central America

economic benefits of Northeast Asia energy interconnection:A quantitative analysis based on a computable general equilibrium model

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Global Energy Interconnection 2021年第3期4卷 295-303页

作者： Jian Wang Shenghao Feng Junyong Xiang Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization No.8 Xuanwumennei StreetBeijing 100031P.R.China Research Institute for Global Value Chains University of International Business and EconomicsHuixindong StreetBeijing100029P.R.China

There has been an intense discussion on the energy infrastructure cooperation in Northeast *** studies have focused on the technical feasibility of grid interconnection,deployment of renewable energy,and have ignored the quantitative analysis of social and economic benefits of these *** study uses a computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the effects of energy interconnection in Northeast *** model development tasks include 1)constructing a new nesting structure,2)econometrically estimating the constant elasticities of substitution(CES)between fossil-and non-fossil-power generation bundles,3)developing a new base-case scenario,and 4)developing the policy *** found that while Northeast Asia will benefit from energy interconnection development with higher GDP than in the base-case;there will be a trade-off between higher investment and lower *** results and environmental implications in this region are also discussed.

关键词： Global Energy Interconnection CGE economic impacts Northeast Asia

A Survey of the Field of Hazard and Disaster Studies

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Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture 2013年第7期7卷 841-853页

作者： David E. Alexander Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction University College London London WCI E 6BT UK

This paper examines trends in the impacts of disasters at the world scale and proposes explanations for them. It is concluded that statistics on natural hazards are questionable, in that changes in recording methods have artificially inflated the number of disasters and the seriousness of their impacts. Next, the paper examines the symbolic interpretation of disasters at various scales of analysis in terms of human cultures. It further applies this approach to the analysis of natural hazards using information technology methods such as GIS （Geographic Information Systems）. Returning to the global scale, deficiencies and inequalities in the world disaster relief system are considered. Thereafter, the paper investigates how global economic imbalances are thrown into sharp relief by catastrophes, with examples from the record of past earthquakes, landslides and floods. Finally, it considers the prospects for a major change in the direction of world policy on disasters and concludes that this will only occur if the international financial system is forced to adjust to a ＂super-disaster＂ event, which could possibly be seismic, volcanic or nuclear in origin.

关键词： Hazard vulnerability risk culture disaster economic impacts mitigation policies.

The Impact of Tourism on Rural Areas: A Case Study (Moeil Village in Meshginshahr County)

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Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Management 2021年第3期9卷 153-164页

作者： Robab Naghizadeh University of Tabriz TabrizIran

This research explained how tourism activity influenced the *** impact that was elaborated in this study was“economic,sociocultural,and environmental”*** research method in this study is descriptive-analytical and *** of the data are based on field studies and sampling method(Cochran)to evaluate the effects of tourism development on rural settlements;384 villagers have been *** of the study show that in contrast to the survey of villagers and tourists who evaluated the highest effect in relation to the economic dependent variable with an average rank of 4.1752,in the stepwise regression study the most changes are related to the social and cultural and physical and environmental dimension dependent variable with a coefficient of ***,Pearson correlation test was used to test the hypothesis of this study,according to which it can be *** development has provided positive changes in economic,socio-cultural,physical,and environmental dimensions in the village.

关键词： rural tourism tourism impact economic impacts socio-cultural impacts environmental impacts

economic Appraisal of Damages Caused by Forest Fires Adopting a New Prevention and Suppression System： The Case of Rhodes Island, Greece

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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering 2011年第4期5卷 475-482页

作者： A.S. Christodoulou N. Theodoridis K. Papastergiou Laboratory of Forest economics Faculty of Forestry and Natural Environment Thessalonik 54124i Greece Forest Inspection of South Aegean Region Rhodes 85100 Greece Technical and Environmental Services of the Municipality of Kameiros Rhodes 85106 Greece

Rhodes is one of the most forested islands of Greece, in the Prefecture of Dodecanese, in southeast of Aegean Sea. The island in recent times has been struck by big and devastating fires. After 1993, the local Forest Service and the local political authority have adopted a new prevention and suppression system relied on the fast fire detection and suppression at its initial stages. By the present research, comparing the results of 1993-2006 （a time span when the above method was applied） with the results of the immediately precedent equal time of 1978-1992, was made certain that the firefighting system applied after 1993 had very good results irrespective from the primary agency in charge of extinguishing the forest fires. Among others, it was made clear that, during the period that this method was applied, a much less area was burnt per year than the period before the application in spite of the fact that in the same period （1993-2006） there has been a significant increase of forest fires. It is also estimated that the economic damage occurred in the first period （1978-1992） on average was 12.4 times per year higher compared to the second period （1993-2006）.

关键词： Forest fires fire detection economic impacts Rhodes island-Greece.