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Long-term Regional dynamic sea level Changes from CMIP6 Projections

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第2期38卷 157-167页

作者： Bruno FERRERO Marcos TONELLI Fernanda MARCELLO Ilana WAINER University of São Paulo São Paulo 05508120Brazil

Anthropogenic climate forcing will cause the global mean sea level to rise over the 21st ***,regional sea level is expected to vary across ocean basins,superimposed by the influence of natural internal climate ***,we address the detection of dynamic sea level(DSL)changes by combining the perspectives of a single and a multimodel ensemble approach(the 50-member CanESM5 and a 27-model ensemble,respectively,all retrieved from the CMIP6 archive),under three CMIP6 projected scenarios:SSP1-2.6,SSP3-7.0 and *** ensemble analysis takes into account four key metrics:signal(S),noise(N),S/N ratio,and time of emergence(ToE).The results from both sets of ensembles agree in the fact that regions with higher S/N(associated with smaller uncertainties)also reflect earlier *** DSL signal is projected to emerge in the Southern Ocean,Southeast Pacific,Northwest Atlantic,and the *** common for both sets of ensemble simulations show that while S progressively increases with increased projected emissions,N,in turn,does not vary substantially among the SSPs,suggesting that uncertainty arising from internal climate variability has little dependence on changes in the magnitude of external *** changes are greater and quite similar for the scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 and considerably smaller for the SSP1-2.6,highlighting the importance of public policies towards lower emission scenarios and of keeping emissions below a certain threshold.

关键词： dynamic sea level CMIP6 sea level rise signal-to-noise time of emergence

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sea level rise projection in the South China sea from CMIP5 models

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2015年第3期34卷 31-41页

作者： HUANG Chuanjiang QIAO Fangli Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration

Future potential sea level change in the South China sea （SCS） is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios. By the end of the 21st century （2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005）, the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level （DSL） is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise （SLR） of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level （SSL） rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.

关键词： sea level rise South China sea dynamic sea level steric sea level CMIP5 models

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