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Sub-Seasonal Predictability of the Northeast China Cold Vortex in BCC and ECMWF S2S Model forecasts for 2006-2021

Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 453-468页

作者： Yiqiu YU Jie WU Yihe FANG Chunyu ZHAO Zongjian KE Yitong LIN Liaoning Provincial Climate Centre Liaoning Provincial Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Key Opening Laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Panjin National Climate Observatory Panjin124000China China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Jilin Provincial Climate Centre Jilin Provincial Meteorological AdministrationChangchun130062China

As an important atmospheric circulation system in the mid-high latitudes of East Asia,the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)substantially influences weather and climate in this *** far,systematic assessment on the performance of numerical prediction of the NCCVs has not been carried *** on the Beijing Climate Centre(BCC)and the ECMWF model hindcast and forecast data that participated in the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Prediction Project,this study systematically examines the performance of both models in simulating and forecasting the NCCVs at the sub-seasonal *** results demonstrate that the two models can effectively capture the seasonal variations in the intensity,active days,and spatial distribution of NCCVs;however,the duration of NCCVs is shorter and the intensity is weaker in the models than in the *** analysis shows that the differences in the intensity and location of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and the wave train pattern from North Atlantic to East Asia may be responsible for the deficient simulation of NCCV events in the S2S ***,in the deterministic forecasts,BCC and ECMWF provide skillful prediction on the anomalous numbers of NCCV days and intensity at a lead time of 4-5(5-6)pentads,and the skill limit of the ensemble mean is 1-2 pentads longer than that of individual *** the probabilistic forecasts of daily NCCV activities,BCC and ECMWF exhibit a forecasting skill of approximately 7 and 11 days,respectively;both models show seasonal dependency in the simulation performance and forecast skills of NCCV events,with better performance in winter than in *** results from this study provide helpful references for further improvement of the S2S prediction of NCCVs.

关键词： Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) predictability sub-seasonal to seasonal(S2S)prediction deterministic forecast probabilistic forecast

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An Assessment of the Predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet Based on TIGGE Data

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第3期32卷 401-412页

作者： ZHOU Baiquan NIU Ruoyun ZHAI Panmao State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration National Meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration

The predictability of the position,spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet （EASWJ） in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems （EPSs） from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF,the NCEP,the CMA,and the *** showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well,while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time ***,improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were *** the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs,the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the *** performed best,with a lead of approximately 0.5-1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast *** probabilistic forecasts,differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage,while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the *** led JMA by about 0.5-1 day for the EASWJ axis,and by about 1-2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead *** largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs,such as NCEP and CMA,was approximately 3-4 days for all EASWJ *** summary,ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ,followed by JMA.

关键词： TIGGE East Asian subtropical westerly jet deterministic forecast probabilistic forecast forecast assessment

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