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Safety of dams： A Pathological Approach of Qualitative and Quantitative Risks

Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture 2016年第9期10卷 1032-1051页

作者： Flavio Augusto Settimi Sohler Laura Maria Mello Saraiva Caldeira National Civil Engineering Laboratory--LNEC Eletroras Furnas Aparecida de Goidnia 74923-650 Brazil National Council of Scientific Research-CNPq Brasilia 71605-001 Brazil National Civil Engineering Laboratory-LNEC Geoteehnies Department Lisbon 1700-066 Portugal

dams are critical and essential elements in any infrastructure and, in front of accidents occurred in many countries, it is extremely important to know the risk of these structures. Inserted in this context, it was found in the technical literature, methods and tools capable of measuring the exposure value by means of indicators. In the study, the highlights were 12 methods of qualitative, semiquantitative and quantitative risk analysis, representing an overview of risk analysis methods available in the literature with potential use in dams, that it has been done into electronic spreadsheets. The case study is performed on a sample of concrete dam and earth/rockfill built and operated by Eletrobr^s Furnas Company, supported by documentary research, projects, field inspections and interviews with experts. After applying the methods and the analysis thereof, has been prepared the Eletrobras Fumas dam risk analysis method which is characterized by adapting the criteria analyzed to the reality of the company＇s dams and it was also performed the portfolio risk analysis of 18 dams. In spite of the variety and subjectivity of qualitative and semiquantitative methods, the results show that they tend to converge on the analysis of dam based on risk. The application methodology demonstrates the feasibility assessment stage, covering the preliminary analysis for portfolio dams, followed by formal and individual risk analyzes for the most critical structures. These results confirm the applicability of risk analysis techniques, contributing to the consolidation of this toot as fundamental in the dam safety.

关键词： Dam safety dams breaks methods and tools for risk analysis risk analysis in dam portfolio.

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