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Are China＇s Exports crowding out or Being Crowded out？ Evidence from Japan＇s Imports

China & World Economy 2018年第4期26卷 1-23页

作者： Yan Liu Xunpeng Shi James Laurenceson, Associate Professor Department of International Economics and Trade Dalian Minzu UniversityChina Principal Research Fellow Australian China Relations Institute University of Technology Sydney Australia Professor and Deputy Director Australia-China Relations Institute University of Technology Sydney Australia

Previous studies have investigated whether Chinese exports have crowaea oul mose from other countries. However, what has yet to be considered is the evidence based on different quality varieties. Using the most detailed Harmonized System 9-digit product- level data, the present paper provides evidence of crowding-out and crowded-out effects across different product quality segments and across manufacturing sectors by quality segments. The empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that the crowding-out effects of Chinese exports have been greatest at the lower end of the quality spectrum but less significant at the higher quality spectrum. Moreover, since 2007, China＇s own exports of lower quality manufactured goods have been increasingly crowded out. The key policy implication is that China＇s export path is in line with that taken by other Asian economies in previous decades; the crowded-out effect could achieve win-win outcomes for countries involved; and lower income countries would do well to be open to receive those relocated low value-added industries from China. However, the relocation policy in China is best implemented gradually as climbing up the product quality ladder takes time.

关键词： constant market share analysis (CMS) crowded out crowding out industrial relocation

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Has China Crowded out Foreign Direct Investment from Its Developing East Asian Neighbors?

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China & World Economy 2007年第3期15卷 70-88页

作者： Ligang Liu Kevin Chow Unias Li Senior Manager Economic Research Division Research Department Hong Kong Monetary Authority Manager Economic Research DivisionResearch Department Hong Kong Monetary Authority Hong Kong Analyst Economic Research Division Research Department Hong Kong Monetary Authority Hong Kong.

This paper applies a gravity model to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment （FDI） in East Asia. Economic fundamentals, such as market size, per capita income and country risk indicators, economic and cultural ties, exchange rate volatilities and information asymmetry are found to be important determinants for FDL Globally, the inward FDI among high-income OECD economies declined significantly on average over the period of 1990-2003, whereas the inward FDI of the high-income OECD economies in emerging market economies gained substantially. In the East Asian region, the ASEAN-4 （Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand） received above-average inward FDI from the high-income OECD economies after controlling for their economic fundamentals. By contrast, China＇s FDl from the high-income OECD economies is below average relative to its economic fundamentals. Therefore, it is difficult to establish that China has crowded out FDI from its developing ASEAN neighbors.

关键词： ASEAN China crowding out foreign direct investment

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