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Numerical Simulation and Risk Analysis of Coastal Inundation in Land Reclamation Areas:A Case Study of the Pearl River Estuary

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2020年第6期19卷 1221-1234页

作者： DU Mei HOU Yijun GUO Yunxia WANG Kai Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266237China Center for Ocean Mega-Science Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China

Coastal inundation results in many human casualties and significant economic *** this study,an inundation model with an unstructured mesh was developed using the ADvanced CIRCulation(adcirc)and Simulating WAves Nearshore(swan)models to simulate 43 inundation events from 1998 to 2018.A combined wind-pressure field derived from the assimilation windpressure model was used to drive the coupled adcirc-swan *** the basis of the model results,a sensitivity study of the influence of land reclamation on coastal inundation was *** results of the study showed that coastline changes caused by reclamation significantly influence the distribution of coastal inundation,particularly in areas where narrow waterways,bays,and peninsulas are newly *** the extreme inundation events calculated using the Gumbel and Weibull distributions,the 10-year,50-year,100-year,and 200-year return coastal inundations were obtained for the Pearl River Estuary in *** risk of coastal inundation was analyzed according to the probability of the inundation depth exceeding 1 m.A hazard grade zoning map was drawn to guide disaster relief and mitigation in the reclamation area.

关键词： coupled adcirc-swan model coastline change coastal inundation Pearl River Estuary risk analysis

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