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Spatio-temporal association analysis of county potential in the Pearl River Delta during 1990-2009

Journal of Geographical Sciences 2015年第3期25卷 319-336页

作者： MEI Zhixiong XU Songjun OUYANG Jun School of Geography South China Normal University Guangzhou 510631 China

According to the highway data and some socioeconomic data of 1990, 1994, 2000, 2005 and 2009 of county units in the Pearl River Delta, this paper measured urban integrated power of different counties in different years by factor analysis, and estimated each county＇s potential in each year by means of expanded potential model. Based on that, the spa- tio-temporal association patterns and evolution of county potential were analyzed using spa- tio-temporal autocorrelation methods, and the validity of spatio-temporal association patterns was verified by comparing with spatial association patterns and cross-correlation function. The main results are shown as follows：（1） The global spatio-temporal association of county po- tential showed a positive effect during the study period. But this positive effect was not strong, and it had been slowly strengthened during 1994-2005 and decayed during 2005-2009. The local spatio-temporal association characteristics of most counties＇ potential kept relatively stable and focused on a positive autocorrelation, however, there were obvious transformations in some counties among four types of local spatio-temporal association （i.e., HH, LL, HL and LH）. （2） The distribution difference and its change of local spatio-temporal association types of county potential were obvious. Spatio-temporal HH type units were located in the central zone and Shenzhen-Dongguan region of the eastern zone, but the central spatio-temporal HH area shrunk to the Guangzhou-Foshan core metropolitan region only after 2000; the spatio-temporal LL area in the western zone kept relatively stable with a surface-shaped continuous distribu- tion pattern, new LL type units emerged in the south-central zone since 2005, the eastern LL area expanded during 1994-2000, but then gradually shrunk and scattered at the eastern edge in 2009; the spatio-temporal HL and LH areas varied significantly. （3） The local spa- tio-temporal association patterns of county potential among the t

关键词： county potential association spatio-temporal autocorrelation spatio-temporal Moran's I Pearl RiverDelta

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