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第36届中国控制会议

作者： Jiangbo Zhang Yiguang Hong Jiangbo Zhang is with the faculty of science Southwest Petroleum University Key Lab of Systems and Control Academy of Mathematics and Systems ScienceChinese Academy of Sciences

ISBN: (纸本)9781538629185

In this paper, we propose a bounded-confidence opinion model and focus on the study of the opinion consensus probability based on long-range opinion interactions. In this model, each agent updates its opinion using some agents’ opinion values according to its confidence bound. We provide a lower bound of the opinion consensus probability when the confidence bound is sufficiently small. Also, we give discussion and simulation examples for the opinion evolution along with some adjustable parameters.

关键词： opinion dynamics consensus probability confidence bound long-range interaction

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Stepwise Method Based on confidence bound and Information Incorporation for Identifying the Maximum Tolerable Dose

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Northeastern Mathematical Journal 2005年第1期21卷 117-126页

作者：王雪丽陶剑史宁中 Department of Mathematics Daqing Petroleum Institute Daqing Heilongjiang163318 Research Instetute of Mathematics Jilin University Changchun130012 Department of Mathematics Northeast Normal University Changchun 130024

The primary goal of a phase I clinical trial is to find the maximum tolerable dose of a treatment. In this paper, we propose a new stepwise method based on confidence bound and information incorporation to determine the maximum tolerable dose among given dose levels. On the one hand, in order to avoid severe even fatal toxicity to occur and reduce the experimental subjects, the new method is executed from the lowest dose level, and then goes on in a stepwise fashion. On the other hand, in order to improve the accuracy of the recommendation, the final recommendation of the maximum tolerable dose is accomplished through the information incorporation of an additional experimental cohort at the same dose level. Furthermore, empirical simulation results show that the new method has some real advantages in comparison with the modified continual reassessment method.

关键词： confidence bound continual reassessment method information incorporation maximum tolerable dose phase I clinical trials stepwise method

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The uncertainty of the Shannon entropy model for shear stress distribution in circular channels

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International Journal of Sediment Research 2020年第1期35卷 57-68页

作者： Amin Kazemian-Kale-Kale Hossein Bonakdari Azadeh Gholami Bahram Gharabaghi Department of Civil Engineering Razi University School of Engineering University of Guelph

The shear stress distribution at alluvial stream beds and banks is one of the essential parameters in channel stability *** the current paper,a novel uncertainty analysis method based on the framework of a Bayesian Forecasting System(BFS) is presented to evaluate the Shannon entropy model for prediction of the shear stress distribution in both circular rigid-bed and alluvial-bed *** Johnson and Box-Cox transformation functions were applied to select the optimum sample size(SS) and corresponding transformation factor for determining a 95% confidence bound(CB) for the Shannon entropy *** Shapiro-Wilk(SW) test is applied according to the SS used to evaluate the power of transformation functions in the data *** results show that the error distribution between predicted and experimental shear stress values generated using the Box-Cox transformation is closer to a Gaussian distribution than the generated using the Johnson *** indexes of the percentage of the experimental values within the CB(Nin) and Forecast Range Error Estimate(FREE) are applied for the uncertainty *** lower values of FREE equal to 1.724 in the circular rigid-bed channel represent the low uncertainty of Shannon entropy in the prediction of shear stress values compared to the uncertainty for the circular alluvial-bed channel with a FREE value equal to 7.647.

关键词： Uncertainty analysis Shear stress distribution Shannon entropy confidence bound Johnson transformation Box-Cox transformation Circular with sediment bed

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