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An equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province, China

Frontiers of Earth Science 2014年第3期8卷 393-404页

作者： Jiao LUO Jinyan ZHAN Yingzhi LIN Chunhong ZHAO State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation School of Environment Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China School of Mathematics and Physics China University of Geosciences Wuhan 430074 China Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Global land use structure is changing rapidly due to unceasing population growth and accelerated urbanization, which leads to fierce competition between the rigid demand for built-up area and the protection of cultivated land, forest, and grassland. It has been a great challenge to realize the sustainable development of land resources. Based on a computable general equilibrium model of land use change with a social accounting matrix dataset, this study implemented an equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province during the period of 2008-2020 under three scenarios, the baseline scenario, low TFP （total factor productivity） scenario, and high TFP scenario. The results indicated that under all three scenarios, area of cultivated land declined signifi- cantly along with a remarkable expansion of built-up area, while areas of forest, grassland, and unused land increased slightly. The growth rate of TFP had first negative and then positive effects on the expansion of built-up area and decline of cultivated land as it increased. Moreover, the simulated changes of both cultivated land and built-up area were the biggest under the low TFP scenario, and far exceeded the limit in the Overall Plan for land Utilization in the Yunnan Province in 2020. The scenario-based simulation results are of important reference value for policy-makers in making land use decisions, balancing the fierce competition between the protection of cultivated land and the increasing demand for built-up area, and guaranteeing food security, ecological security, and the sustainable development of land resources.

关键词： land use land use structure computable general equilibrium model of land use change socialaccounting matrix scenarios Yunnan Province

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