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A compound poisson MODEL FOR LEARNING DISCRETE BAYESIAN NETWORKS

Acta Mathematica Scientia 2013年第6期33卷 1767-1784页

作者： Abdelaziz GHRIBI Afif MASMOUDI Laboratory of Physic-Mathematics University of Sfax Laboratory of Probability and Statistics University of Sfax

We introduce here the concept of Bayesian networks, in compound poisson model, which provides a graphical modeling framework that encodes the joint probability distribution for a set of random variables within a directed acyclic graph. We suggest an approach proposal which offers a new mixed implicit estimator. We show that the implicit approach applied in compound poisson model is very attractive for its ability to understand data and does not require any prior information. A comparative study between learned estimates given by implicit and by standard Bayesian approaches is established. Under some conditions and based on minimal squared error calculations, we show that the mixed implicit estimator is better than the standard Bayesian and the maximum likelihood estimators. We illustrate our approach by considering a simulation study in the context of mobile communication networks.

关键词： Bayesian network compound poisson distribution multinomial distribution implicit approach mobile communication networks

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Risk estimation based on mixed normal distribution model for diabetes-related hospitalization claims

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Chinese Medical Journal 2006年第9期119卷 774-778页

作者： WANG Xin-wang WANG Juan FANG Ji-qian Guangzhou Medical College Department of The Health Statistics School of Public Health Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou 510182 China

Medical insurance service, the important part of national healthcare supporting system with a history dating back more than 100 years ago, remains a global challenge because of its high rates of compensation and difficulty in risk control. When developing the diabetes related, hospitalization insurance, we found that the risk loss of the diabetic inpatients does not follow a symmetrical unimodal distribution： in fact, it is hard to describe its risk loses distribution with a single probability distribution model. Therefore, we put forward a risk measurement method based on a mixed normal distributions model for medical insurance of inpatients with diabetes.

关键词： mixed normal distribution model compound poisson distribution diabetes premium ruin probability reserve

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