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Network prediction of surgical complication clusters:a prospective multicenter cohort study

Science China(Life Sciences) 2023年第7期66卷 1636-1646页

作者： Xiaochu Yu Peng Wu Zixing Wang Wei Han Yuguang Huang Shijie Xin Qiang Zhang Shengxiu Zhao Hong Sun Guanghua Lei Taiping Zhang Luwen Zhang Yubing Shen Wentao Gu Hongwei Li Jingmei Jiang Peking Union Medical College Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical SciencesBeijing100730China Institute of Basic Medical Sciences Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/School of Basic MedicinePeking Union Medical CollegeBeijing100005China The First Hospital of China Medical University Shenyang110001China Qinghai Provincial People’s Hospital Xining810007China Xiangya Hospital of Central South University Changsha410008China Research Department PaodingAIBeijing100083China

Complicated relationships exist in both occurrence and progression of surgical complications,which are difficult to account for using a separate quantitative method such as prediction or *** of 51,030 surgical inpatients were collected from four academic/teaching hospitals in a prospective cohort study in *** relationship between preoperative factors,22 common complications,and death was *** input from 54 senior clinicians and following a Bayesian network approach,a complication grading,cluster-visualization,and prediction(GCP)system was designed to model pathways between grades of complication and preoperative risk factor *** the GCP system,there were 11 nodes representing six grades of complication and five preoperative risk factor clusters,and 32 arcs representing a direct *** critical targets were pinpointed on the *** status was a fundamental cause widely associated(7/32 arcs)with other risk factor clusters and *** Society of Anesthesiologists(ASA)score≥3 was directly dependent on all other risk factor clusters and influenced all severe *** III complications(mainly pneumonia)were directly dependent on4/5 risk factor clusters and affected all other grades of *** of grade,complication occurrence was more likely to increase the risk of other grades of complication than risk factor clusters.

关键词： surgical complication network system complication grading complication prediction complication management

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